1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 15
  3. MTSU vs AUB
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 15

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Auburn Tigers

Propst Arena · Neutral site
#154MTSUMTSU
vs
#21AUBAuburn
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MTSUThis seasonAUB
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects AUB 88–68 · win probability AUB 95%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 155.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: AUB has more of the edges

MTSU 1, AUB 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
AUBBig
AUB offense vs MTSU defense
Offense 16th of 366 against a defense 167th, on the model’s ratings
AUBBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MTSU 32.7, AUB 43.2. Allowed: MTSU 35.7, AUB 34.3
AUBBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MTSU 17.1%, AUB 14.6%. Forced: MTSU 14.9%, AUB 16.3%
Context
Schedule so far
MTSU has played the 132nd-hardest schedule, AUB the 10th. A record against a soft schedule means less
AUBBig
MTSU offense vs AUB defense
Offense 158th of 366 against a defense 41st, on the model’s ratings
MTSUSmall
Three-pointers
MTSU hits 33.8% and allows 34.0%; AUB hits 34.4% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 45.3% and 40.2% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MTSU plays 68.3 a game (216th fastest), AUB 69.7 (136th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MTSU 51.6 and allows 51.0; AUB 53.0 and allows 53.7
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MTSU 30.7%, AUB 37.0%. Defensive: MTSU 71.5%, AUB 69.1%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MTSU 30%, AUB 38%. Transfers in: MTSU 3, AUB 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—AUB -19.3—
Total—155.6—
Projected score—MTSU 68.2 · AUB 87.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadAUB -11.4—
1H total72.7—
1H projected scoreMTSU 30.7 · AUB 42.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Auburn has the better starters

Position by position: MTSU 0, Auburn 5, even 0
MTSUBetterAuburn
G K. de Kovachich TR11.6 pts · 2.2 reb · 2 ast Score 40
AUBBig
G T. Pettiford15.4 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 88
G J. Carter10.3 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 63
AUBSmall
G K. Overton14.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 90
G E. Rice TR6.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.2 ast Score 43
AUBBig
G K. King TR7.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 83
F O. Naveh TR11 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 52
AUBSmall
F T. Dowd TR14.5 pts · 10.3 reb · 2 ast Score 83
C L. Jovanovic2.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.4 ast Score 26
AUBBig
F A. Olsen TR17 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 66
MTSUBetterAuburn
MTSU offense158th of 366 · -4.7
AUBSmall
AUB defense41st of 366 · +2.8
MTSU defense167th of 366 · -3.7
AUBBig
AUB offense16th of 366 · +8.7
Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players
AUBBig
Backcourt+6.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.1 · 2 players
AUBBig
Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players
Bench-0.1 · 2 players
AUBBig
Bench+3.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMTSU betterAUB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
MTSU
Guards
K. de Kovachich31 min · TRJ. Carter27 minE. Rice20 min · TRM. Whitlock11 minQ. BarnettNewJ. HowardNew
Forwards
O. Naveh29 min · TRJ. Hall7 minA. BoldenNew
Centers
L. Jovanovic14 minK. SilerNew
Auburn
Guards
T. Pettiford32 minK. Overton32 minK. King19 min · TRB. Muschalek6 minS. Walker5 minD. Cardwell1 min
Forwards
T. Dowd37 min · TRA. Olsen37 min · TRO. Freeman12 min · TRJ. BowmanNew
Centers
B. Oboye18 min · TRN. NgoyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MTSUAUB
Scoring
73.5 #216Points per game83.0 #27
1.08 #195Points per possession1.19 #19
68.3 #216Pace (possessions)69.7 #136
Shooting
51.6 #167Effective FG%53.0 #104
33.8 #1833-point %34.4 #147
45.3 #613-point attempt rate40.2 #166
32.7 #245Free throw rate43.2 #19
Possessions
17.1 #214Turnover rate14.6 #45
30.7 #171Offensive rebound rate37.0 #15
13.7 #168Assists per game13.2 #198
Defense
74.6 #180Points allowed78.8 #287
1.09 #205Points allowed per possession1.13 #281
51.0 #155Opponent effective FG%53.7 #291
34.0 #180Opponent 3-point %36.7 #336
14.9 #293Turnovers forced16.3 #201
71.5 #83Defensive rebound rate69.1 #196
5.8 #265Steals per game7.5 #83
4.0 #76Blocks per game4.1 #63
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

MTSU

14-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Louisiana Tech69–80
  • W@ Missouri St75–63
  • W@ FIU73–67
  • Wvs New Mexico St86–85
  • Wvs UTEP77–67

A week or more of rest.

Auburn

22-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs Tulsa92–86
  • Wvs Illinois St88–66
  • Wvs Nevada75–69
  • Wvs Seattle U91–85
  • Wvs South Alabama78–67

A week or more of rest.