Drake Bulldogs at Evansville Purple Aces: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 15, 8:00 PM ETFord Center · at Evansville · Conference game

#144DRKEDrake

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Drake and Evansville
DRKE	This season	EVAN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DRKE 75–71 · win probability DRKE 64%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DRKE has more of the edges

DRKE 5, EVAN 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

DRKEBig

EVAN offense vs DRKE defense

Offense 277th of 366 against a defense 132nd, on the model’s ratings

DRKESmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DRKE 15.0%, EVAN 19.1%. Forced: DRKE 14.6%, EVAN 15.4%

DRKESmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DRKE 51.4 and allows 52.6; EVAN 49.3 and allows 55.1

DRKESmall

Three-pointers

DRKE hits 34.0% and allows 36.4%; EVAN hits 32.3% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 45.7% and 43.1% of their shots

DRKESmall

DRKE offense vs EVAN defense

Offense 168th of 366 against a defense 220th, on the model’s ratings

EVANSmall

Home court

EVAN at home. This season: EVAN 0-0 at home, DRKE 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: DRKE 33.5, EVAN 29.8. Allowed: DRKE 32.0, EVAN 31.4

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DRKE 26.6%, EVAN 22.0%. Defensive: DRKE 70.1%, EVAN 69.8%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DRKE 51%, EVAN 35%. Transfers in: DRKE 3, EVAN 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

DRKE has played the 147th-hardest schedule, EVAN the 127th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: DRKE plays 68.4 a game (209th fastest), EVAN 67.9 (232nd). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	DRKE -4.1	—
Total	—	145.5	—
Projected score	—	DRKE 74.8 · EVAN 70.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DRKE -2.6	—
1H total	68.0	—
1H projected score	DRKE 35.3 · EVAN 32.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DRKE LLWWL	12-20	38%	5-6	—
EVAN WLWLW	14-16	47%	5-8	—

Venue/role: DRKE away; EVAN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
DRKE UUUOU	18-14	56%	12-20
EVAN OOOOU	15-15	50%	5-25

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DRKE	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
EVAN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Drake

No more games listed yet.

Evansville

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

DRKE 10–0 EVANDRKE leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DRKE has won the last 10 meetings · DRKE 6-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 28, 2025-26	EVAN 78 @ DRKE 82	DRKE -8.5	EVAN W
Dec 21, 2025-26	DRKE 66 @ EVAN 65	EVAN -2.5	DRKE W
Feb 26, 2024-25	DRKE 65 @ EVAN 61	EVAN +8.5	EVAN W
Jan 11, 2024-25	EVAN 40 @ DRKE 63	DRKE -15.5	DRKE W
Mar 8, 2023-24	EVAN 58 vs DRKE 79	DRKE -14.5	DRKE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Drake

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W L L W L W W L L L W L W L L W L W W W L L L L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-2038%

L L L W W W W L L L W L L L W W L W W L L L W L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1456%

O O U U U O O U O U U U U O O O O O U O O O O O O O U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNAU	W 77-71	-8.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 6	vsRMU	L 79-81	-7.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 160
Nov 14	vsSIUE	L 59-61	-7.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 120
Nov 17	@COFC	W 71-62	+7.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 133
Nov 28	vsLSU	L 62-71	+11.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsGT	W 84-74	+4.5	W +14.5	137.5	O 158
Dec 2	vsWIU	W 108-57	-17.5	W +33.5	138.5	O 165
Dec 5	vsUAB	L 69-74	-1.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 143
Dec 13	vsNDSU	L 94-99	-5.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 193
Dec 18	@MUR	L 72-81	+7.5	L −1.5	156.5	U 153
Dec 21	@EVAN	W 66-65	+2.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 131
Dec 29	vsILST	L 56-73	+4.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 129
Jan 4	vsINST	W 74-72	-6.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 146
Jan 7	@BRAD	L 66-93	+6.5	L −20.5	144.5	O 159
Jan 10	vsBEL	L 76-78	+4.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 154
Jan 14	@SIU	W 76-73	+5.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 149
Jan 17	@UIC	L 67-74	+5.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 141
Jan 21	vsMUR	W 101-90	+4.5	W +15.5	156.5	O 191
Jan 24	@INST	W 76-62	+3.5	W +17.5	151.5	U 138
Jan 28	vsEVAN	W 82-78	-8.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 160
Jan 31	vsBRAD	L 73-87	+2.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 160
Feb 3	@BEL	L 90-103	+9.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 193
Feb 6	@ILST	L 76-86	+10.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 162
Feb 9	vsVAL	L 76-81	-3.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 157
Feb 12	vsUIC	L 70-80	+1.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 150
Feb 15	@UNI	L 62-86	+8.5	L −15.5	138.5	O 148
Feb 18	vsSIU	L 61-66	+1.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 127
Feb 25	@VAL	L 71-74	+2.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 145
Mar 1	vsUNI	L 53-75	+4.5	L −17.5	137.5	U 128
Mar 5	vsSIU	W 67-63	+5.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 130
Mar 6	vsBEL	W 100-79	+12.5	W +33.5	152.5	O 179
Mar 7	vsUIC	L 51-72	+4.5	L −16.5	144.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAU

W 77-71

−2.5

RMU

L 79-81

−9.5

SIUE

L 59-61

−9.5

COFC

W 71-62

+16.5

LSU

L 62-71

+2.5

W 84-74

+14.5

WIU

W 108-57

+33.5

UAB

L 69-74

−6.5

NDSU

L 94-99

−10.5

MUR

L 72-81

−1.5

EVAN

W 66-65

+3.5

ILST

L 56-73

−12.5

INST

W 74-72

−4.5

BRAD

L 66-93

−20.5

BEL

L 76-78

+2.5

SIU

W 76-73

+8.5

UIC

L 67-74

−1.5

MUR

W 101-90

+15.5

INST

W 76-62

+17.5

EVAN

W 82-78

−4.5

BRAD

L 73-87

−11.5

BEL

L 90-103

−3.5

ILST

L 76-86

+0.5

VAL

L 76-81

−8.5

UIC

L 70-80

−8.5

UNI

L 62-86

−15.5

SIU

L 61-66

−3.5

VAL

L 71-74

−0.5

UNI

L 53-75

−17.5

SIU

W 67-63

+9.5

BEL

W 100-79

+33.5

UIC

L 51-72

−16.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAU

W 77-71

+3.5

RMU

L 79-81

+8.5

SIUE

L 59-61

−22.5

COFC

W 71-62

−20.5

LSU

L 62-71

−18.5

W 84-74

+20.5

WIU

W 108-57

+26.5

UAB

L 69-74

−5.5

NDSU

L 94-99

+47.5

MUR

L 72-81

−3.5

EVAN

W 66-65

−10.5

ILST

L 56-73

−16.5

INST

W 74-72

−3.5

BRAD

L 66-93

+14.5

BEL

L 76-78

+5.5

SIU

W 76-73

+4.5

UIC

L 67-74

+1.5

MUR

W 101-90

+34.5

INST

W 76-62

−13.5

EVAN

W 82-78

+16.5

BRAD

L 73-87

+9.5

BEL

L 90-103

+38.5

ILST

L 76-86

+17.5

VAL

L 76-81

+12.5

UIC

L 70-80

+3.5

UNI

L 62-86

+9.5

SIU

L 61-66

−22.5

VAL

L 71-74

−1.5

UNI

L 53-75

−9.5

SIU

W 67-63

−10.5

BEL

W 100-79

+26.5

UIC

L 51-72

−21.5

over 18under 14avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Evansville

30 games played

Straight up

5-25

17% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2517%

L L L W L L W L L L L L L L L W L L L L L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1647%

W L L W L L W W L W L W L L L W W L W L L W W L L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O O U U U O O O U U U U U U O U O U O U O O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@PUR	L 51-82	+33.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 12	vsMTSU	L 72-77	-2.5	L −7.5	140.5	O 149
Nov 18	vsUTA	L 76-84	-2.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsORST	W 73-69	+6.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 142
Nov 23	vsAKR	L 59-97	+11.5	L −26.5	156.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsCOFC	L 59-78	+4.5	L −14.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 3	vsBALL	W 64-52	-6.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 116
Dec 6	@WKU	L 79-80	+11.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 159
Dec 13	@ND	L 58-82	+14.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 140
Dec 16	vsBEL	L 78-83	+8.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 21	vsDRKE	L 65-66	-2.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 131
Dec 29	@BRAD	L 68-76	+11.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 1	@ILST	L 47-73	+12.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 120
Jan 4	vsUNI	L 48-62	+4.5	L −9.5	131.5	U 110
Jan 7	vsMUR	L 69-79	+8.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 148
Jan 10	@INST	W 72-69	+7.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 141
Jan 13	vsBRAD	L 90-94	+7.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 184
Jan 20	@UIC	L 49-76	+8.5	L −18.5	139.5	U 125
Jan 28	@DRKE	L 78-82	+8.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 160
Jan 31	@UNI	L 55-71	+11.5	L −4.5	128.5	U 126
Feb 3	vsINST	L 63-84	+1.5	L −19.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 6	@VAL	L 63-70	+8.5	W +1.5	136.5	U 133
Feb 9	vsILST	W 88-80	+10.5	W +18.5	137.5	O 168
Feb 12	@SIU	L 60-86	+12.5	L −13.5	142.5	O 146
Feb 18	vsUIC	L 46-84	+8.5	L −29.5	140.5	U 130
Feb 21	@MUR	L 75-88	+15.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 163
Feb 25	@BEL	L 64-98	+18.5	L −15.5	152.5	O 162
Feb 28	vsVAL	W 80-79	+5.5	W +6.5	137.5	O 159
Mar 1	vsSIU	L 67-81	+9.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 148
Mar 5	vsUNI	L 59-68	+13.5	W +4.5	127.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

+2.5

MTSU

L 72-77

−7.5

UTA

L 76-84

−10.5

ORST

W 73-69

+10.5

AKR

L 59-97

−26.5

COFC

L 59-78

−14.5

BALL

W 64-52

+5.5

WKU

L 79-80

+10.5

L 58-82

−9.5

BEL

L 78-83

+3.5

DRKE

L 65-66

−3.5

BRAD

L 68-76

+3.5

ILST

L 47-73

−13.5

UNI

L 48-62

−9.5

MUR

L 69-79

−1.5

INST

W 72-69

+10.5

BRAD

L 90-94

+3.5

UIC

L 49-76

−18.5

DRKE

L 78-82

+4.5

UNI

L 55-71

−4.5

INST

L 63-84

−19.5

VAL

L 63-70

+1.5

ILST

W 88-80

+18.5

SIU

L 60-86

−13.5

UIC

L 46-84

−29.5

MUR

L 75-88

+2.5

BEL

L 64-98

−15.5

VAL

W 80-79

+6.5

SIU

L 67-81

−4.5

UNI

L 59-68

+4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PUR

L 51-82

−17.5

MTSU

L 72-77

+8.5

UTA

L 76-84

+21.5

ORST

W 73-69

+5.5

AKR

L 59-97

−0.5

COFC

L 59-78

−4.5

BALL

W 64-52

−20.5

WKU

L 79-80

+11.5

L 58-82

+3.5

BEL

L 78-83

+13.5

DRKE

L 65-66

−10.5

BRAD

L 68-76

−0.5

ILST

L 47-73

−24.5

UNI

L 48-62

−21.5

MUR

L 69-79

−5.5

INST

W 72-69

−4.5

BRAD

L 90-94

+41.5

UIC

L 49-76

−14.5

DRKE

L 78-82

+16.5

UNI

L 55-71

−2.5

INST

L 63-84

+1.5

VAL

L 63-70

−3.5

ILST

W 88-80

+30.5

SIU

L 60-86

+3.5

UIC

L 46-84

−10.5

MUR

L 75-88

+9.5

BEL

L 64-98

+9.5

VAL

W 80-79

+21.5

SIU

L 67-81

+8.5

UNI

L 59-68

−0.5

over 15under 15avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Evansville has the better starters

Position by position: Drake 1, Evansville 2, even 2

DrakeBetterEvansville

G A. Alia6.8 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27

Even

G B. Quinet8.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 31

G O. Larson10 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 42

No call

G M. Langenfeld TR2.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked

G E. Shetlar9 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 57

EVANSmall

F A. Casey13.9 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F G. Oldham TR5.5 pts · 7.5 reb · 1 ast Score 21

EVANSmall

F G. Winther TR7.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 51

F J. Carroll TR10.7 pts · 8.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78

DRKEBig

F J. Dyson-Merwe2.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 8

DrakeBetterEvansville

DRKE offense168th of 366 · -5.1

Even

EVAN defense220th of 366 · -5.7

DRKE defense132nd of 366 · -2.5

DRKEBig

EVAN offense277th of 366 · -8.5

Backcourt-3.7 · 3 players

EVANSmall

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.5 · 2 players

EVANSmall

Frontcourt+0.8 · 3 players

Bench+0.1 · 2 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestDRKE betterEVAN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Drake

Guards

A. Alia32 minO. Larson29 minE. Shetlar28 minD. Kindell17 min · TRD. IjadimbolaNewL. RushNew

Forwards

G. Oldham26 min · TRJ. Carroll25 min · TRG. Goodbary13 minJ. BurnsNewM. FlemonsNew

Evansville

Guards

B. Quinet27 minM. Langenfeld7 min · TRM. RiekNewL. EllspermannNewA. GutmanNewR. MasumyanNew

Forwards

A. Casey30 minG. Winther22 min · TRJ. Dyson-Merwe13 minD. NejezchlebNewY. PinasNewJ. GenschawNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DRKE73.9 #200

EVAN65.8 #347

Points per possession

DRKE1.08 #182

EVAN0.97 #344

Pace (possessions)

DRKE68.4 #209

EVAN67.9 #232

Shooting

Effective FG%

DRKE51.4 #179

EVAN49.3 #280

3-point %

DRKE34.0 #172

EVAN32.3 #268

3-point attempt rate

DRKE45.7 #53

EVAN43.1 #109

Free throw rate

DRKE33.5 #223

EVAN29.8 #315

Possessions

Turnover rate

DRKE15.0 #64

EVAN19.1 #324

Offensive rebound rate

DRKE26.6 #310

EVAN22.0 #355

Assists per game

DRKE13.1 #202

EVAN12.6 #245

Defense

Points allowed

DRKE76.3 #225

EVAN78.3 #275

Points allowed per possession

DRKE1.12 #261

EVAN1.15 #329

Opponent effective FG%

DRKE52.6 #246

EVAN55.1 #332

Opponent 3-point %

DRKE36.4 #323

EVAN37.6 #351

Turnovers forced

DRKE14.6 #315

EVAN15.4 #258

Defensive rebound rate

DRKE70.1 #155

EVAN69.8 #170

Steals per game

DRKE5.2 #319

EVAN5.0 #335

Blocks per game

DRKE2.9 #241

EVAN3.3 #171

DRKE		EVAN
Scoring
73.9 #200	Points per game	65.8 #347
1.08 #182	Points per possession	0.97 #344
68.4 #209	Pace (possessions)	67.9 #232
Shooting
51.4 #179	Effective FG%	49.3 #280
34.0 #172	3-point %	32.3 #268
45.7 #53	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #109
33.5 #223	Free throw rate	29.8 #315
Possessions
15.0 #64	Turnover rate	19.1 #324
26.6 #310	Offensive rebound rate	22.0 #355
13.1 #202	Assists per game	12.6 #245
Defense
76.3 #225	Points allowed	78.3 #275
1.12 #261	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #329
52.6 #246	Opponent effective FG%	55.1 #332
36.4 #323	Opponent 3-point %	37.6 #351
14.6 #315	Turnovers forced	15.4 #258
70.1 #155	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #170
5.2 #319	Steals per game	5.0 #335
2.9 #241	Blocks per game	3.3 #171

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Drake

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UIC51–72
Wvs Belmont100–79
Wvs S Illinois67–63
Lvs Northern Iowa53–75
L@ Valparaiso71–74

A week or more of rest.

Evansville

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Northern Iowa59–68
Lvs S Illinois67–81
Wvs Valparaiso80–79
L@ Belmont64–98
L@ Murray St75–88

A week or more of rest.

Drake Bulldogs at Evansville Purple Aces

What could decide it: DRKE has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Drake

Evansville

Evansville has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Drake

Evansville