Milwaukee Panthers at Little Rock Trojans: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 15, 8:00 PM ETJack Stephens Center · at Little Rock

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Milwaukee and Little Rock
MILW	This season	LR
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LR 76–73 · win probability LR 62%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LR has more of the edges

MILW 2, LR 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

MILW has played the 191st-hardest schedule, LR the 347th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MILWBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MILW 33.0%, LR 31.5%. Defensive: MILW 70.8%, LR 63.4%

LRBig

Three-pointers

MILW hits 32.3% and allows 36.5%; LR hits 35.3% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 38.1% and 31.0% of their shots

LRSmall

LR offense vs MILW defense

Offense 238th of 366 against a defense 297th, on the model’s ratings

LRSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MILW 49.9 and allows 55.5; LR 49.4 and allows 51.8

LRSmall

Home court

LR at home. This season: LR 0-0 at home, MILW 0-0 away

MILWSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MILW 40%, LR 12%. Transfers in: MILW 3, LR 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: MILW plays 69.1 a game (174th fastest), LR 67.6 (248th). Faster games mean more points

Even

MILW offense vs LR defense

Offense 180th of 366 against a defense 208th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MILW 15.3%, LR 18.4%. Forced: MILW 15.8%, LR 18.6%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MILW 32.1, LR 27.7. Allowed: MILW 35.9, LR 33.1

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LR -3.4	—
Total	—	148.9	—
Projected score	—	MILW 72.7 · LR 76.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LR -1.9	—
1H total	69.6	—
1H projected score	MILW 33.9 · LR 35.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MILW WLLWL	11-20	35%	5-12	—
LR WLLWL	12-18	40%	4-7	—

Venue/role: MILW away; LR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MILW OOUUU	14-17	45%	11-20
LR UUOOU	15-15	50%	10-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILW	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
LR	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Milwaukee

No more games listed yet.

Little Rock

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MILW 1–0 LRMILW leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MILW 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 10, 2025-26	LR 72 @ MILW 92	MILW -3.5	MILW W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Milwaukee

31 games played

Straight up

11-20

35% wins

Against the spread

11-20

35% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2035%

W L W L L L L W L W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-2035%

L L W L W L L L L W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1745%

O O O O U U O U U O U U U U O U O U O O U U O U U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHAMP	W 90-86	-5.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 176
Nov 8	@WOF	L 76-86	-3.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 162
Nov 10	vsLR	W 92-72	-3.5	W +16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@IU	L 70-101	+24.5	L −6.5	165.5	O 171
Nov 14	@TTU	L 63-80	+27.5	W +10.5	165.5	U 143
Nov 22	@WICH	L 58-75	+10.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 29	@AKR	L 81-105	+12.5	L −11.5	166.5	O 186
Dec 6	vsRMU	W 74-72	-4.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 14	vsINST	L 68-70	-2.5	L −4.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 19	vsSDST	W 88-87	+1.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 175
Dec 21	@CLE	W 81-71	-6.5	W +3.5	160.5	U 152
Dec 29	vsPFW	W 77-55	-3.5	W +18.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 30	@WIS	L 60-80	+19.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 140
Jan 1	@WRST	L 70-76	+3.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 146
Jan 5	@GB	L 76-79	-3.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 155
Jan 9	vsNKU	L 67-85	-1.5	L −19.5	157.5	U 152
Jan 11	vsIUIN	W 95-83	-8.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 178
Jan 15	vsOAK	L 60-73	+2.5	L −10.5	166.5	U 133
Jan 18	@PFW	L 82-100	+3.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 182
Jan 22	@RMU	L 76-88	+4.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 164
Jan 24	@YSU	W 65-64	+6.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 30	vsWRST	L 69-76	+2.5	L −4.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 1	vsCLE	L 88-90	-9.5	L −11.5	160.5	O 178
Feb 4	vsDETM	L 63-76	-6.5	L −19.5	155.5	U 139
Feb 7	@NKU	L 62-67	+6.5	W +1.5	156.5	U 129
Feb 10	@IUIN	W 92-88	-2.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 15	vsGB	W 75-72	-2.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 20	@DETM	L 86-91	-1.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 177
Feb 22	@OAK	L 70-81	+5.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 151
Feb 25	vsYSU	W 78-65	+1.5	W +14.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 4	@DETM	L 63-84	+1.5	L −19.5	151.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

−1.5

WOF

L 76-86

−13.5

W 92-72

+16.5

L 70-101

−6.5

TTU

L 63-80

+10.5

WICH

L 58-75

−6.5

AKR

L 81-105

−11.5

RMU

W 74-72

−2.5

INST

L 68-70

−4.5

SDST

W 88-87

+2.5

CLE

W 81-71

+3.5

PFW

W 77-55

+18.5

WIS

L 60-80

−0.5

WRST

L 70-76

−2.5

L 76-79

−6.5

NKU

L 67-85

−19.5

IUIN

W 95-83

+3.5

OAK

L 60-73

−10.5

PFW

L 82-100

−14.5

RMU

L 76-88

−7.5

YSU

W 65-64

+7.5

WRST

L 69-76

−4.5

CLE

L 88-90

−11.5

DETM

L 63-76

−19.5

NKU

L 62-67

+1.5

IUIN

W 92-88

+1.5

W 75-72

+0.5

DETM

L 86-91

−6.5

OAK

L 70-81

−5.5

YSU

W 78-65

+14.5

DETM

L 63-84

−19.5

covered 11didn’t cover 20avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

+29.5

WOF

L 76-86

+11.5

W 92-72

+7.5

L 70-101

+5.5

TTU

L 63-80

−22.5

WICH

L 58-75

−25.5

AKR

L 81-105

+19.5

RMU

W 74-72

−7.5

INST

L 68-70

−21.5

SDST

W 88-87

+23.5

CLE

W 81-71

−8.5

PFW

W 77-55

−24.5

WIS

L 60-80

−17.5

WRST

L 70-76

−1.5

L 76-79

+10.5

NKU

L 67-85

−5.5

IUIN

W 95-83

+12.5

OAK

L 60-73

−33.5

PFW

L 82-100

+33.5

RMU

L 76-88

+11.5

YSU

W 65-64

−22.5

WRST

L 69-76

−6.5

CLE

L 88-90

+17.5

DETM

L 63-76

−16.5

NKU

L 62-67

−27.5

IUIN

W 92-88

+21.5

W 75-72

+1.5

DETM

L 86-91

+23.5

OAK

L 70-81

−8.5

YSU

W 78-65

−4.5

DETM

L 63-84

−4.5

over 14under 17avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Little Rock

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

L L W L L L L L L L W W L W W W W L L L L L L W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-1840%

L L W L L W L L L L W W L W W W L W L L W L L W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

O U U O U U U O O O U U O O O O O U U O U O U U O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@MILW	L 72-92	+3.5	L −16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@MARQ	L 49-89	+21.5	L −18.5	155.5	U 138
Nov 15	@BALL	W 68-62	+2.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 130
Nov 18	@MUR	L 68-89	+13.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 21	@TXST	L 56-65	+5.5	L −3.5	131.5	U 121
Nov 29	@SIU	L 65-74	+13.5	W +4.5	141.5	U 139
Dec 3	@CARK	L 47-85	+3.5	L −34.5	138.5	U 132
Dec 6	vsARST	L 78-90	+9.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 168
Dec 9	@WVU	L 58-90	+27.5	L −4.5	132.5	O 148
Dec 16	@MORE	L 64-78	+2.5	L −11.5	136.5	O 142
Dec 18	@USI	W 77-62	-2.5	W +12.5	140.5	U 139
Jan 1	vsTNTC	W 77-58	-1.5	W +17.5	144.5	U 135
Jan 3	vsTNST	L 79-84	+1.5	L −3.5	144.5	O 163
Jan 8	@SIUE	W 73-70	+3.5	W +6.5	131.5	O 143
Jan 10	@LIN	W 82-74	+6.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 156
Jan 15	vsEIU	W 74-63	-6.5	W +4.5	133.5	O 137
Jan 17	vsWIU	W 86-79	-10.5	L −3.5	135.5	O 165
Jan 22	@SEMO	L 65-70	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 29	@TNST	L 63-70	+4.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 133
Jan 31	@TNTC	L 77-87	-1.5	L −11.5	141.5	O 164
Feb 3	@UTM	L 52-55	+6.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 107
Feb 5	vsLIN	L 74-79	+1.5	L −3.5	149.5	O 153
Feb 7	vsSIUE	L 61-71	-1.5	L −11.5	132.5	U 132
Feb 12	@WIU	W 77-58	-7.5	W +11.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 14	@EIU	L 72-78	-2.5	L −8.5	134.5	O 150
Feb 19	vsUTM	W 67-65	+2.5	W +4.5	136.5	U 132
Feb 21	vsSEMO	L 65-70	+1.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 135
Feb 26	vsMORE	L 70-76	-2.5	L −8.5	138.5	O 146
Feb 28	vsUSI	W 89-70	-5.5	W +13.5	139.5	O 159
Mar 4	vsLIN	L 62-72	+5.5	L −4.5	148.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MILW

L 72-92

−16.5

MARQ

L 49-89

−18.5

BALL

W 68-62

+8.5

MUR

L 68-89

−7.5

TXST

L 56-65

−3.5

SIU

L 65-74

+4.5

CARK

L 47-85

−34.5

ARST

L 78-90

−2.5

WVU

L 58-90

−4.5

L 64-78

−11.5

USI

W 77-62

+12.5

TNTC

W 77-58

+17.5

TNST

L 79-84

−3.5

SIUE

W 73-70

+6.5

LIN

W 82-74

+14.5

EIU

W 74-63

+4.5

WIU

W 86-79

−3.5

SEMO

L 65-70

+0.5

TNST

L 63-70

−2.5

TNTC

L 77-87

−11.5

UTM

L 52-55

+3.5

LIN

L 74-79

−3.5

SIUE

L 61-71

−11.5

WIU

W 77-58

+11.5

EIU

L 72-78

−8.5

UTM

W 67-65

+4.5

SEMO

L 65-70

−3.5

L 70-76

−8.5

USI

W 89-70

+13.5

LIN

L 62-72

−4.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MILW

L 72-92

+7.5

MARQ

L 49-89

−17.5

BALL

W 68-62

−16.5

MUR

L 68-89

+3.5

TXST

L 56-65

−10.5

SIU

L 65-74

−2.5

CARK

L 47-85

−6.5

ARST

L 78-90

+20.5

WVU

L 58-90

+15.5

L 64-78

+5.5

USI

W 77-62

−1.5

TNTC

W 77-58

−9.5

TNST

L 79-84

+18.5

SIUE

W 73-70

+11.5

LIN

W 82-74

+6.5

EIU

W 74-63

+3.5

WIU

W 86-79

+29.5

SEMO

L 65-70

−10.5

TNST

L 63-70

−17.5

TNTC

L 77-87

+22.5

UTM

L 52-55

−32.5

LIN

L 74-79

+3.5

SIUE

L 61-71

−0.5

WIU

W 77-58

−6.5

EIU

L 72-78

+15.5

UTM

W 67-65

−4.5

SEMO

L 65-70

−8.5

L 70-76

+7.5

USI

W 89-70

+19.5

LIN

L 62-72

−14.5

over 15under 15avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Milwaukee 1, Little Rock 1, even 3

MilwaukeeBetterLittle Rock

G I. Dorceus5.3 pts · 1.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 14

LRBig

G A. Clark TR15.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 62

G T. Norman TR2.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 55

Even

G J. King TR14 pts · 3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 46

F D. Jovanovich12.3 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 78

MILWBig

G T. Walters TR8.3 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37

F C. Jackson9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 67

Even

F B. Hubbard TR16.1 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 80

F S. Murchison0.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

F T. Burgess7.4 pts · 3 reb · 1.2 ast Not ranked

MilwaukeeBetterLittle Rock

MILW offense180th of 366 · -5.5

Even

LR defense208th of 366 · -5.2

MILW defense297th of 366 · -7.6

LRSmall

LR offense238th of 366 · -7.3

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-2.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+1.9 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players

Bench-0.2 · 2 players

MILWSmall

Bench-2.3 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestMILW betterLR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Milwaukee

Guards

I. Dorceus22 minT. Norman8 min · TRJ. Hansen1 min · TRJ. LovelaceNewD. OmwenoNewA. WomackNew

Forwards

D. Jovanovich31 minC. Jackson23 minS. Murchison5 minA. Amadou3 min · TRN. MalosaNewB. AkoroNew

Little Rock

Guards

A. Clark33 min · TRJ. King32 min · TRT. Walters28 min · TRA. Economou6 min · TRT. LaceyNewJ. LynNew

Forwards

B. Hubbard29 min · TRT. Burgess24 minP. Amadou Kante14 min · TRA. Bamisile14 min · TRJ. Felt13 min · TRR. OselkaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MILW74.7 #173

LR68.9 #300

Points per possession

MILW1.09 #172

LR1.02 #306

Pace (possessions)

MILW69.1 #174

LR67.6 #248

Shooting

Effective FG%

MILW49.9 #242

LR49.4 #273

3-point %

MILW32.3 #266

LR35.3 #96

3-point attempt rate

MILW38.1 #212

LR31.0 #339

Free throw rate

MILW32.1 #256

LR27.7 #345

Possessions

Turnover rate

MILW15.3 #85

LR18.4 #292

Offensive rebound rate

MILW33.0 #88

LR31.5 #143

Assists per game

MILW12.9 #220

LR13.4 #183

Defense

Points allowed

MILW79.9 #317

LR74.2 #160

Points allowed per possession

MILW1.15 #328

LR1.10 #217

Opponent effective FG%

MILW55.5 #340

LR51.8 #199

Opponent 3-point %

MILW36.5 #329

LR34.4 #211

Turnovers forced

MILW15.8 #232

LR18.6 #71

Defensive rebound rate

MILW70.8 #121

LR63.4 #357

Steals per game

MILW6.5 #176

LR7.5 #77

Blocks per game

MILW3.0 #230

LR4.4 #45

MILW		LR
Scoring
74.7 #173	Points per game	68.9 #300
1.09 #172	Points per possession	1.02 #306
69.1 #174	Pace (possessions)	67.6 #248
Shooting
49.9 #242	Effective FG%	49.4 #273
32.3 #266	3-point %	35.3 #96
38.1 #212	3-point attempt rate	31.0 #339
32.1 #256	Free throw rate	27.7 #345
Possessions
15.3 #85	Turnover rate	18.4 #292
33.0 #88	Offensive rebound rate	31.5 #143
12.9 #220	Assists per game	13.4 #183
Defense
79.9 #317	Points allowed	74.2 #160
1.15 #328	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #217
55.5 #340	Opponent effective FG%	51.8 #199
36.5 #329	Opponent 3-point %	34.4 #211
15.8 #232	Turnovers forced	18.6 #71
70.8 #121	Defensive rebound rate	63.4 #357
6.5 #176	Steals per game	7.5 #77
3.0 #230	Blocks per game	4.4 #45

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Milwaukee

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Detroit Mercy63–84
Wvs Youngstown St78–65
L@ Oakland70–81
L@ Detroit Mercy86–91
Wvs Green Bay75–72

A week or more of rest.

Little Rock

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Lindenwood Lions62–72
Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles89–70
Lvs Morehead St70–76
Lvs SE Missouri65–70
Wvs UT Martin67–65

A week or more of rest.

Milwaukee Panthers at Little Rock Trojans

What could decide it: LR has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Milwaukee

Little Rock

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Milwaukee

Little Rock