1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 15
  3. ETAM @ CARK
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 15

East Texas A&M Lions at Central Arkansas Bears

Farris Center · at C Arkansas
#342ETAMEast Texas A&M
@
#240CARKC Arkansas
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ETAMThis seasonCARK
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CARK 78–67 · win probability CARK 83%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 145.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CARK has more of the edges

ETAM 0, CARK 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CARKBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ETAM 19.2%, CARK 15.4%. Forced: ETAM 17.0%, CARK 19.1%
CARKBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ETAM 25.7%, CARK 28.8%. Defensive: ETAM 67.2%, CARK 72.6%
CARKBig
Three-pointers
ETAM hits 31.3% and allows 37.3%; CARK hits 35.5% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 46.2% and 48.7% of their shots
CARKSmall
ETAM offense vs CARK defense
Offense 344th of 366 against a defense 241st, on the model’s ratings
CARKSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ETAM 7%, CARK 62%. Transfers in: ETAM 2, CARK 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
CARKSmall
CARK offense vs ETAM defense
Offense 231st of 366 against a defense 317th, on the model’s ratings
CARKSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ETAM 49.2 and allows 52.9; CARK 54.0 and allows 54.9
CARKSmall
Home court
CARK at home. This season: CARK 0-0 at home, ETAM 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: ETAM plays 68.5 a game (203rd fastest), CARK 70.2 (105th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ETAM 32.0, CARK 31.2. Allowed: ETAM 34.5, CARK 30.1
Context
Schedule so far
ETAM has played the 265th-hardest schedule, CARK the 241st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CARK -10.8—
Total—145.6—
Projected score—ETAM 67.4 · CARK 78.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCARK -6.3—
1H total68.1—
1H projected scoreETAM 30.9 · CARK 37.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: East Texas A&M 1, C Arkansas 1, even 3
East Texas A&MBetterC Arkansas
G A. Dodd TR14.3 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.1 ast Score 82
ETAMBig
G L. Moore9.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.5 ast Score 28
G E. Phelps1.3 pts · 0.7 reb · 1 ast Score 0
CARKBig
G T. Robinson14.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89
G K. Tolbert NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G C. McCormick9.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 44
F J. Ford TR3.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
No call
G H. Beauchamp4.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 1 ast Score 8
F B. Aldridge NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F M. Marable3.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 3
East Texas A&MBetterC Arkansas
ETAM offense344th of 366 · -11.8
CARKSmall
CARK defense241st of 366 · -6.4
ETAM defense317th of 366 · -8.2
CARKSmall
CARK offense231st of 366 · -7.1
Backcourt-1.7 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-2.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
ETAMSmall
Frontcourt-3.0 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-1.8 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestETAM betterCARK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
East Texas A&M
Guards
A. Dodd32 min · TRE. Phelps15 minK. TolbertNewC. AdlamNewK. RobinsonNewG. SkorjancNew
Forwards
J. Ford10 min · TRB. AldridgeNewY. VidalNewM. DiakiteNewC. DinuNewM. CarrioNew
C Arkansas
Guards
L. Moore30 minT. Robinson28 minC. McCormick23 minH. Beauchamp15 minO. Dehrmann3 minJ. Shulman3 min
Forwards
M. Marable21 minT. Anderson12 min · TRS. Saadi9 min · TRA. HoernerNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ETAMCARK
Scoring
67.1 #331Points per game79.3 #77
0.98 #342Points per possession1.13 #90
68.5 #203Pace (possessions)70.2 #105
Shooting
49.2 #282Effective FG%54.0 #68
31.3 #3133-point %35.5 #89
46.2 #433-point attempt rate48.7 #21
32.0 #257Free throw rate31.2 #278
Possessions
19.2 #330Turnover rate15.4 #92
25.7 #328Offensive rebound rate28.8 #240
14.6 #109Assists per game16.0 #46
Defense
76.0 #218Points allowed76.0 #216
1.11 #240Points allowed per possession1.08 #180
52.9 #261Opponent effective FG%54.9 #328
37.3 #347Opponent 3-point %35.2 #262
17.0 #156Turnovers forced19.1 #45
67.2 #288Defensive rebound rate72.6 #48
6.7 #150Steals per game8.5 #18
3.1 #196Blocks per game1.9 #351
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

East Texas A&M

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 6-16 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Texas A&M-CC71–84
  • L@ UT Rio Grande55–63
  • Lvs Hou Christian68–69
  • Lvs Incarnate Word73–82
  • Wvs SE Louisiana70–53

A week or more of rest.

C Arkansas

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Queens University Royals93–98
  • Wvs FGCU73–63
  • Wvs Bellarmine86–73
  • Wvs Queens University Royals84–79
  • W@ Austin Peay93–88

A week or more of rest.