Stetson Hatters at Central Arkansas Bears: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 2:00 PM ETFarris Center · at C Arkansas · Conference game

#303STETStetson73final

Final

#240CARKC Arkansas93▲ winner

Closing lineCARK -11.5✓ CARK covered by 8.5

Closing total147.5Over by 18.5

Season records: Stetson and C Arkansas
STET	This season	CARK
3-9	Record	4-8
5-7	ATS	6-6
4-8	O/U	5-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: STET 68–79 CARK · ✓ CARK (81%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
STET	28	45	73
CARK	41	52	93

1st half: STET 28, CARK 41 (CARK by 13). The model had CARK by 5.9 and a total of 68.8 (actual 69).

Team stats

STET		CARK
24-51 47%	Field goals	31-61 51%
11-31 35%	3-pointers	13-32 41%
14-21 67%	Free throws	18-23 78%
28 9 off	Rebounds	35 14 off
16	Assists	22
4	Steals	8
4	Blocks	1
15	Turnovers	11
19	Fouls	18
22	Points in paint	36
11	Fast-break points	16

Players

STET	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jamie Phillips Jr. G	33	22	4	2	8-12	3-6
Ethan Copeland G	25	14	1	0	5-10	4-8
Calvin Sirmans III G	21	3	3	4	0-4	0-3
Finley Sheridan F	21	7	2	1	2-4	2-3
Collin Kuhl F	17	11	6	0	5-7	0-0
Bench
Jake Johnson G	16	4	1	0	1-5	1-4
Daniel Macgregor G	15	5	1	4	1-1	0-0
J.R. Leonard G	13	4	0	0	1-6	1-6
Matar Diop F	13	0	3	2	0-0	0-0
Janusz Ratowski F	12	0	3	2	0-0	0-0
Sean Morgan G	6	3	0	1	1-1	0-0
Alex Doyle F	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Miller McGowan G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Isaac Jones, Ben Gladieux

CARK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Camren Hunter G	29	21	4	5	8-14	2-5
Ty Robinson G	25	20	4	2	7-13	3-8
Javion Guy-King G	23	4	4	1	1-6	0-2
Luke Moore G	22	5	3	2	1-6	1-5
Malchiah Marable F	21	5	5	2	1-3	0-0
Bench
Harry Beauchamp G	21	10	0	1	3-6	2-5
Truman Byrne F	19	11	4	4	4-5	3-4
Cole McCormick G	19	11	7	2	5-7	1-2
Tyler Lee G	9	4	0	2	1-1	1-1
Parker Applegate G	6	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Owen Dehrmann G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
J.C. Shulman G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Ethan Thomas G	2	2	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Chris Mason, R.J. Newton, Rylie Marshall, Rashad Bolden

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CARK -11.5	CARK -10.0	STET +1.5	L CARK covered
Total	147.5	146.9	Under 0.6	L Over
Projected score	—	STET 68.4 · CARK 78.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CARK -5.9	CARK -13.0
1H total	68.8	69
1H projected score	STET 31.5 · CARK 37.3	STET 28 · CARK 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STET LWLLW	5-7	42%	3-5	5-7
CARK WLWWW	6-6	50%	4-1	2-0

Venue/role: STET away, as underdog; CARK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
STET UUUOU	4-8	33%	3-9
CARK UUUOO	5-7	42%	4-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STET	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
CARK	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

STET 3–3 CARKSeries tied · 6 games since 2021-22 · STET 3-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 2, 2024-25	CARK 77 vs STET 72	STET -1.5	CARK W
Jan 9, 2024-25	CARK 65 @ STET 75	STET -1.5	STET W
Feb 3, 2023-24	STET 73 @ CARK 62	CARK +4.5	STET W
Feb 4, 2022-23	CARK 80 @ STET 99	STET -9.5	STET W
Mar 1, 2021-22	STET 73 @ CARK 74	CARK PK	CARK W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Stetson

12 games played

Straight up

3-9

25% wins

Against the spread

5-7

42% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-8

33% overs · avg −4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-925%

L L L W W L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-742%

L L W W W L L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-833%

O O U U O U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@URI	L 62-93	+18.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 10	@MIA	L 61-102	+34.5	L −6.5	161.5	O 163
Nov 16	@WCU	L 65-76	+12.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 141
Nov 19	vsHOW	W 64-60	+1.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 124
Nov 22	vsVMI	W 99-80	+2.5	W +21.5	148.5	O 179
Nov 25	vsWRST	L 62-79	+9.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 29	vsSUU	L 68-70	+1.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 138
Nov 30	@RMU	L 62-80	+11.5	L −6.5	142.5	U 142
Dec 2	@GCU	L 45-67	+24.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 112
Dec 6	@SC	L 51-82	+22.5	L −8.5	142.5	U 133
Dec 22	@OU	L 54-107	+31.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 161
Jan 1	@UNA	W 70-67	+9.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

URI

L 62-93

−12.5

MIA

L 61-102

−6.5

WCU

L 65-76

+1.5

HOW

W 64-60

+5.5

VMI

W 99-80

+21.5

WRST

L 62-79

−7.5

SUU

L 68-70

−0.5

RMU

L 62-80

−6.5

GCU

L 45-67

+2.5

L 51-82

−8.5

L 54-107

−21.5

UNA

W 70-67

+12.5

covered 5didn’t cover 7avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

URI

L 62-93

+2.5

MIA

L 61-102

+1.5

WCU

L 65-76

−14.5

HOW

W 64-60

−25.5

VMI

W 99-80

+30.5

WRST

L 62-79

−6.5

SUU

L 68-70

−10.5

RMU

L 62-80

−0.5

GCU

L 45-67

−29.5

L 51-82

−9.5

L 54-107

+12.5

UNA

W 70-67

−5.5

over 4under 8avg −4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

C Arkansas

12 games played

Straight up

4-8

33% wins

Against the spread

6-6

50% covers · avg +7.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-7

42% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-833%

L L L L W W L W L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-650%

L L L L W W L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-742%

U U O U O O U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UNC	L 54-94	+31.5	L −8.5	157.5	U 148
Nov 11	@ARK	L 56-93	+35.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 149
Nov 16	vsSAM	L 77-84	+6.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 161
Nov 20	@UNT	L 56-74	+16.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 23	vsEWU	W 92-65	+4.5	W +31.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsEIU	W 81-60	-5.5	W +15.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 29	@ETSU	L 57-80	+12.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 137
Dec 3	vsLR	W 85-47	-3.5	W +34.5	138.5	U 132
Dec 7	@ETAM	L 68-75	+2.5	L −4.5	145.5	U 143
Dec 13	@VAN	L 72-83	+36.5	W +25.5	158.5	U 155
Dec 21	@SMU	L 82-99	+24.5	W +7.5	156.5	O 181
Jan 1	vsFGCU	W 85-83	+2.5	W +4.5	156.5	O 168

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNC

L 54-94

−8.5

ARK

L 56-93

−1.5

SAM

L 77-84

−0.5

UNT

L 56-74

−1.5

EWU

W 92-65

+31.5

EIU

W 81-60

+15.5

ETSU

L 57-80

−10.5

W 85-47

+34.5

ETAM

L 68-75

−4.5

VAN

L 72-83

+25.5

SMU

L 82-99

+7.5

FGCU

W 85-83

+4.5

covered 6didn’t cover 6avg +7.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNC

L 54-94

−9.5

ARK

L 56-93

−9.5

SAM

L 77-84

+9.5

UNT

L 56-74

−4.5

EWU

W 92-65

+2.5

EIU

W 81-60

+1.5

ETSU

L 57-80

−7.5

W 85-47

−6.5

ETAM

L 68-75

−2.5

VAN

L 72-83

−3.5

SMU

L 82-99

+24.5

FGCU

W 85-83

+11.5

over 5under 7avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Stetson Hatters at Central Arkansas Bears

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Stetson

C Arkansas

Stetson

C Arkansas