Little Rock Trojans at Central Arkansas Bears: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 7:30 PM ETFarris Center · at C Arkansas

Final

#240CARKC Arkansas85▲ winner

Closing lineCARK -3.5✓ CARK covered by 34.5

Closing total138.5Under by 6.5

Season records: Little Rock and C Arkansas
LR	This season	CARK
1-5	Record	2-5
2-4	ATS	2-5
2-4	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LR 69–71 CARK · ✓ CARK (56%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LR	19	28	47
CARK	53	32	85

1st half: LR 19, CARK 53 (CARK by 34). The model had CARK by 0.9 and a total of 65.9 (actual 72).

Team stats

LR		CARK
20-58 34%	Field goals	30-63 48%
5-20 25%	3-pointers	15-41 37%
2-9 22%	Free throws	10-14 71%
34 11 off	Rebounds	44 13 off
9	Assists	21
6	Steals	16
5	Blocks	2
21	Turnovers	14
14	Fouls	11
30	Points in paint	30
4	Fast-break points	17

Players

LR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Christian Hughes G	34	3	3	1	1-6	1-4
Johnathan Lawson G	28	5	4	2	2-7	1-6
Caleb Pennyfeather F	27	8	6	0	4-8	0-0
Braxton Bayless G	23	1	2	3	0-3	0-1
Kachi Nzeh F	14	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Bench
Cameron Wallace F	31	19	9	1	9-20	0-2
Tracy Steele Jr. G	20	6	5	1	2-5	2-3
Joseph Thomas G	16	3	2	1	1-4	1-3
Truman Claytor IV F	7	0	1	0	0-3	0-1

Did not play: Travonne Jackson, Kellen Robinson, Terrion Burgess, Tuongthach Gatkek, Khasen Robinson, KK Robinson

CARK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Luke Moore G	25	11	4	2	4-7	3-6
Camren Hunter G	25	19	1	3	7-12	2-7
Ty Robinson G	20	15	8	6	6-13	1-7
Malchiah Marable F	19	4	7	1	2-4	0-0
Cole McCormick G	14	3	2	1	1-4	1-2
Bench
Truman Byrne F	21	5	6	3	1-4	1-3
Tyler Lee G	15	3	3	2	1-3	1-3
Harry Beauchamp G	15	9	0	1	3-4	3-4
Parker Applegate G	13	10	0	0	3-7	1-4
Javion Guy-King G	13	6	5	1	2-4	2-4
Ethan Thomas G	8	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Owen Dehrmann G	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
J.C. Shulman G	6	0	3	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Rylie Marshall, R.J. Newton, Chris Mason, Rashad Bolden

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CARK -3.5	CARK -1.7	LR +1.8	L CARK covered
Total	138.5	140.6	Over 2.1	L Under
Projected score	—	LR 69.4 · CARK 71.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CARK -0.9	CARK -34.0
1H total	65.9	72
1H projected score	LR 32.5 · CARK 33.4	LR 19 · CARK 53

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LR LWLLW	2-4	33%	2-4	2-4
CARK LLWWL	2-5	29%	2-1	1-0

Venue/role: LR away, as underdog; CARK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LR UUOUU	2-4	33%	1-5
CARK OUOOU	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LRlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%
CARKlast 7	2-5 29%	2-5 29%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LR 2–2 CARKSeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · LR 1-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 4, 2024-25	CARK 57 @ LR 63	LR -9.5	CARK W
Dec 7, 2023-24	LR 71 @ CARK 75	CARK +5.5	CARK W
Dec 20, 2022-23	CARK 66 @ LR 75	LR -2.5	LR W
Nov 14, 2022-23	LR 71 @ CARK 82	CARK -2.5	CARK W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Little Rock

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@MILW	L 72-92	+3.5	L −16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@MARQ	L 49-89	+21.5	L −18.5	155.5	U 138
Nov 15	@BALL	W 68-62	+2.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 130
Nov 18	@MUR	L 68-89	+13.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 21	@TXST	L 56-65	+5.5	L −3.5	131.5	U 121
Nov 29	@SIU	L 65-74	+13.5	W +4.5	141.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MILW

L 72-92

−16.5

MARQ

L 49-89

−18.5

BALL

W 68-62

+8.5

MUR

L 68-89

−7.5

TXST

L 56-65

−3.5

SIU

L 65-74

+4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MILW

L 72-92

+7.5

MARQ

L 49-89

−17.5

BALL

W 68-62

−16.5

MUR

L 68-89

+3.5

TXST

L 56-65

−10.5

SIU

L 65-74

−2.5

over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

C Arkansas

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-529%

L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

U U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UNC	L 54-94	+31.5	L −8.5	157.5	U 148
Nov 11	@ARK	L 56-93	+35.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 149
Nov 16	vsSAM	L 77-84	+6.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 161
Nov 20	@UNT	L 56-74	+16.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 23	vsEWU	W 92-65	+4.5	W +31.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsEIU	W 81-60	-5.5	W +15.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 29	@ETSU	L 57-80	+12.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNC

L 54-94

−8.5

ARK

L 56-93

−1.5

SAM

L 77-84

−0.5

UNT

L 56-74

−1.5

EWU

W 92-65

+31.5

EIU

W 81-60

+15.5

ETSU

L 57-80

−10.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNC

L 54-94

−9.5

ARK

L 56-93

−9.5

SAM

L 77-84

+9.5

UNT

L 56-74

−4.5

EWU

W 92-65

+2.5

EIU

W 81-60

+1.5

ETSU

L 57-80

−7.5

over 3under 4avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Little Rock @ C Arkansas

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Little Rock

C Arkansas

Little Rock

C Arkansas