Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at UL Monroe Warhawks: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 7:30 PM ETb1Bank Fant Coliseum · at UL Monroe

Final

#358ULMUL Monroe66▲ winner

Closing lineULM -9.5✓ ULM covered by 4.5

Closing total149.5Under by 31.5

Season records: Miss Valley St and UL Monroe
MVSU	This season	ULM
0-7	Record	0-6
5-2	ATS	2-4
5-2	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MVSU 74–84 ULM · ✓ ULM (81%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MVSU	29	23	52
ULM	30	36	66

1st half: MVSU 29, ULM 30 (ULM by 1). The model had ULM by 5.9 and a total of 73.6 (actual 59).

Team stats

MVSU		ULM
20-60 33%	Field goals	20-46 43%
3-17 18%	3-pointers	6-20 30%
9-13 69%	Free throws	20-29 69%
33 11 off	Rebounds	38 7 off
14	Assists	13
7	Steals	8
3	Blocks	5
10	Turnovers	12
22	Fouls	14
20	Points in paint	28
2	Fast-break points	6

Players

MVSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Daniel Mayfield F	37	15	6	3	6-14	0-2
Mike James G	32	10	1	1	4-11	2-6
Patrick Punch G	28	8	3	3	2-14	0-6
Delkedric Holmes G	25	0	2	3	0-3	0-0
Samuel Murray F	14	11	7	0	5-10	0-0
Bench
X'Zaevion Barnett G	28	8	4	2	3-4	1-1
Antonio Sisk G	16	0	1	1	0-1	0-1
Lamont Sams F	11	0	2	1	0-2	0-1
Mussa Mzein C	6	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Chance Sutton F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Derrick Singleton, George Ivory III, Tyrone Iroghama, Jonathan Pace

ULM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
MJ Russell G	38	17	4	3	7-13	2-6
Krystian Lewis G	38	22	6	3	4-11	2-8
Renars Sondors F	34	14	4	2	4-9	2-5
Lavell Brodnex G	28	5	9	1	2-6	0-1
Alex Molofeev G	20	0	4	1	0-2	0-0
Bench
Wiggy Ball G	23	2	5	3	0-1	0-0
Alex Huguet F	11	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Przemek Hartman C	6	4	1	0	2-2	0-0
Ajay Tew G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Cam Campbell G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Brady Craig, Dylan Diaz, Micah Caster, Brentay Noel

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ULM -9.5	ULM -10.1	ULM +0.6	W ULM covered
Total	149.5	157.3	Over 7.8	L Under
Projected score	—	MVSU 73.6 · ULM 83.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ULM -5.9	ULM -1.0
1H total	73.6	59
1H projected score	MVSU 33.9 · ULM 39.8	MVSU 29 · ULM 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MVSU WWWWW	5-2	71%	3-2	5-2
ULM WLLWL	2-4	33%	0-1	—

Venue/role: MVSU away, as underdog; ULM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MVSU UOUOO	5-2	71%	0-7
ULM OUOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MVSUlast 7	0-7 0%	5-2 71%	5-2 71%
ULMlast 6	0-6 0%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Miss Valley St

7 games played

Straight up

0-7

0% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +13.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-70%

L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

L L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-271%

O O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UAB	L 55-106	+34.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 161
Nov 7	@MUR	L 60-108	+38.5	L −9.5	159.5	O 168
Nov 12	@HAW	L 56-88	+41.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 14	vsUTU	L 75-81	+26.5	W +20.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 15	vsMAN	L 73-80	+20.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 153
Nov 22	@CSUB	L 70-86	+21.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 156
Nov 25	@TA&M	L 84-120	+42.5	W +6.5	154.5	O 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UAB

L 55-106

−16.5

MUR

L 60-108

−9.5

HAW

L 56-88

+9.5

UTU

L 75-81

+20.5

MAN

L 73-80

+13.5

CSUB

L 70-86

+5.5

TA&M

L 84-120

+6.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UAB

L 55-106

+15.5

MUR

L 60-108

+8.5

HAW

L 56-88

−7.5

UTU

L 75-81

+10.5

MAN

L 73-80

−1.5

CSUB

L 70-86

+17.5

TA&M

L 84-120

+49.5

over 5under 2avg +13.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

UL Monroe

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +9.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-183%

O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NIU	L 82-102	+7.5	L −12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@MISS	L 65-86	+37.5	W +16.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 13	@HCU	L 61-72	+8.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 17	vsLAM	L 66-79	+11.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 22	vsMORE	L 80-83	+6.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 163
Nov 23	@ETSU	L 55-97	+19.5	L −22.5	146.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NIU

L 82-102

−12.5

MISS

L 65-86

+16.5

HCU

L 61-72

−2.5

LAM

L 66-79

−1.5

L 80-83

+3.5

ETSU

L 55-97

−22.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NIU

L 82-102

+36.5

MISS

L 65-86

+1.5

HCU

L 61-72

−10.5

LAM

L 66-79

+4.5

L 80-83

+17.5

ETSU

L 55-97

+5.5

over 5under 1avg +9.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Miss Valley St @ UL Monroe

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Miss Valley St

UL Monroe

Miss Valley St

UL Monroe