Drexel Dragons at Pittsburgh Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 15, 7:00 PM ETPetersen Events Center · at Pitt

#74PITTPitt

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Drexel and Pitt
DREX	This season	PITT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PITT 80–61 · win probability PITT 95%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 140.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PITT has more of the edges

DREX 2, PITT 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

PITTBig

DREX offense vs PITT defense

Offense 323rd of 366 against a defense 59th, on the model’s ratings

DREXBig

Three-pointers

DREX hits 35.5% and allows 30.3%; PITT hits 33.4% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 40.0% and 42.6% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

DREX has played the 199th-hardest schedule, PITT the 65th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DREXBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: DREX 50.6 and allows 47.1; PITT 51.0 and allows 53.4

PITTSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DREX 31.2%, PITT 33.9%. Defensive: DREX 69.0%, PITT 71.9%

PITTSmall

PITT offense vs DREX defense

Offense 87th of 366 against a defense 175th, on the model’s ratings

PITTSmall

Home court

PITT at home. This season: PITT 0-0 at home, DREX 0-0 away

PITTSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DREX 19.1%, PITT 17.2%. Forced: DREX 16.4%, PITT 16.3%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DREX 24%, PITT 3%. Transfers in: DREX 2, PITT 10. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: DREX 31.6, PITT 30.4. Allowed: DREX 35.4, PITT 30.9

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: DREX plays 65.2 a game (341st fastest), PITT 65.0 (345th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PITT -19.3	—
Total	—	140.3	—
Projected score	—	DREX 60.5 · PITT 79.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PITT -11.3	—
1H total	65.7	—
1H projected score	DREX 27.2 · PITT 38.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DREX WWLWL	19-13	59%	7-7	—
PITT WWWWL	16-17	48%	9-9	—

Venue/role: DREX away; PITT home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
DREX UUUOU	14-18	44%	16-16
PITT UOUUO	19-14	58%	13-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DREX	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
PITT	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Drexel

No more games listed yet.

Pitt

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Drexel

32 games played

Straight up

16-16

50% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1650%

L L L W L W W L L L W W L L L W W W L W W W L W L L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1359%

L L L W L W L W L L W W W W W W W W W W W L L W L L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

O O U U U O U O O O O O U U O U U U U O U U U O O O U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@JOES	L 65-76	+9.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 11	@COLG	L 83-90	+3.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsSYR	L 50-80	+11.5	L −18.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsNJIT	W 75-43	-13.5	W +18.5	138.5	U 118
Nov 21	vsPENN	L 68-84	-4.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 152
Nov 23	vsODU	W 75-71	-3.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 146
Nov 25	@MORG	W 71-66	-5.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 137
Dec 3	@AMER	L 73-75	+4.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 6	@LAS	L 64-69	-1.5	L −6.5	129.5	O 133
Dec 16	vsHOW	L 66-74	-6.5	L −14.5	138.5	O 140
Dec 19	vsMSM	W 75-67	-4.5	W +3.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 21	vsME	W 74-56	-10.5	W +7.5	129.5	O 130
Dec 29	@COFC	L 63-72	+9.5	W +0.5	142.5	U 135
Dec 31	@UNCW	L 53-65	+12.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 118
Jan 3	vsHOF	L 67-70	+4.5	W +1.5	131.5	O 137
Jan 8	vsSTBK	W 56-37	-5.5	W +13.5	132.5	U 93
Jan 10	vsW&M	W 64-58	+3.5	W +9.5	150.5	U 122
Jan 15	@MONM	W 73-51	+5.5	W +27.5	127.5	U 124
Jan 19	@TOW	L 58-59	+7.5	W +6.5	124.5	U 117
Jan 24	vsNE	W 83-78	-4.5	W +0.5	139.5	O 161
Jan 29	vsHAMP	W 58-51	-2.5	W +4.5	127.5	U 109
Jan 31	vsNCAT	W 61-60	-7.5	L −6.5	138.5	U 121
Feb 5	@CAM	L 60-81	+4.5	L −16.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 7	@ELON	W 82-77	+4.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 159
Feb 12	vsMONM	L 73-93	-1.5	L −21.5	133.5	O 166
Feb 16	@STBK	L 69-72	+2.5	L −0.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 19	@NE	W 70-61	+1.5	W +10.5	143.5	U 131
Feb 22	vsTOW	W 68-62	+2.5	W +8.5	130.5	U 130
Feb 26	vsCAM	W 65-60	-1.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 125
Mar 3	@HOF	L 51-62	+8.5	L −2.5	133.5	U 113
Mar 7	vsNE	W 84-77	-4.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 161
Mar 8	vsMONM	L 57-65	+3.5	L −4.5	136.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 65-76

−1.5

COLG

L 83-90

−3.5

SYR

L 50-80

−18.5

NJIT

W 75-43

+18.5

PENN

L 68-84

−20.5

ODU

W 75-71

+0.5

MORG

W 71-66

−0.5

AMER

L 73-75

+2.5

LAS

L 64-69

−6.5

HOW

L 66-74

−14.5

MSM

W 75-67

+3.5

W 74-56

+7.5

COFC

L 63-72

+0.5

UNCW

L 53-65

+0.5

HOF

L 67-70

+1.5

STBK

W 56-37

+13.5

W&M

W 64-58

+9.5

MONM

W 73-51

+27.5

TOW

L 58-59

+6.5

W 83-78

+0.5

HAMP

W 58-51

+4.5

NCAT

W 61-60

−6.5

CAM

L 60-81

−16.5

ELON

W 82-77

+9.5

MONM

L 73-93

−21.5

STBK

L 69-72

−0.5

W 70-61

+10.5

TOW

W 68-62

+8.5

CAM

W 65-60

+3.5

HOF

L 51-62

−2.5

W 84-77

+2.5

MONM

L 57-65

−4.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 65-76

+1.5

COLG

L 83-90

+29.5

SYR

L 50-80

−13.5

NJIT

W 75-43

−20.5

PENN

L 68-84

−0.5

ODU

W 75-71

+3.5

MORG

W 71-66

−6.5

AMER

L 73-75

+10.5

LAS

L 64-69

+3.5

HOW

L 66-74

+1.5

MSM

W 75-67

+4.5

W 74-56

+0.5

COFC

L 63-72

−7.5

UNCW

L 53-65

−19.5

HOF

L 67-70

+5.5

STBK

W 56-37

−39.5

W&M

W 64-58

−28.5

MONM

W 73-51

−3.5

TOW

L 58-59

−7.5

W 83-78

+21.5

HAMP

W 58-51

−18.5

NCAT

W 61-60

−17.5

CAM

L 60-81

−0.5

ELON

W 82-77

+22.5

MONM

L 73-93

+32.5

STBK

L 69-72

+5.5

W 70-61

−12.5

TOW

W 68-62

−0.5

CAM

W 65-60

−18.5

HOF

L 51-62

−20.5

W 84-77

+22.5

MONM

L 57-65

−14.5

over 14under 18avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pitt

33 games played

Straight up

13-20

39% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-2039%

W W W L W L L W L L L W W L L L W L L L W L L L L L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1748%

W W L L W L L W L L L W W W L L W L L L W L L L W L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1458%

U U O U U U O U O O O O U O O O O O U O O U U O U O O O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsYSU	W 74-59	-14.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	vsLONG	W 78-60	-14.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsEMU	W 78-66	-15.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 13	@WVU	L 49-71	+5.5	L −16.5	134.5	U 120
Nov 17	vsBUCK	W 84-50	-16.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	vsUCF	L 67-77	-1.5	L −11.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 23	vsQUIN	L 75-83	-12.5	L −20.5	140.5	O 158
Nov 28	vsOSU	W 67-66	+5.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 133
Dec 2	vsTA&M	L 73-81	+3.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 154
Dec 7	vsHOF	L 73-80	-8.5	L −15.5	134.5	O 153
Dec 13	@VILL	L 61-79	+10.5	L −7.5	138.5	O 140
Dec 17	vsBING	W 103-63	-24.5	W +15.5	134.5	O 166
Dec 21	vsPSU	W 80-46	+1.5	W +35.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 30	@MIA	L 69-76	+9.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 145
Jan 3	vsCLEM	L 68-73	+3.5	L −1.5	135.5	O 141
Jan 10	vsSYR	L 72-83	-1.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 14	@GT	W 89-66	-1.5	W +21.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 17	vsLOU	L 59-100	+7.5	L −33.5	152.5	O 159
Jan 21	@BC	L 62-65	-2.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 127
Jan 24	vsNCSU	L 72-81	+6.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 153
Jan 27	vsWAKE	W 80-76	-1.5	W +2.5	150.5	O 156
Jan 31	@CLEM	L 52-63	+10.5	L −0.5	135.5	U 115
Feb 3	@UVA	L 47-67	+12.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 114
Feb 7	vsSMU	L 67-86	+4.5	L −14.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 10	vsDUKE	L 54-70	+17.5	W +1.5	136.5	U 124
Feb 14	@UNC	L 65-79	+11.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 21	vsND	W 73-68	-3.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 141
Feb 25	@STAN	L 67-75	+8.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 142
Feb 28	@CAL	W 72-56	+6.5	W +22.5	143.5	U 128
Mar 4	vsFSU	L 74-75	+1.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 149
Mar 7	@SYR	W 71-69	+5.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 140
Mar 10	vsSTAN	W 64-63	+4.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 127
Mar 11	vsNCSU	L 88-98	+8.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 186

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

+0.5

LONG

W 78-60

+3.5

EMU

W 78-66

−3.5

WVU

L 49-71

−16.5

BUCK

W 84-50

+17.5

UCF

L 67-77

−11.5

QUIN

L 75-83

−20.5

OSU

W 67-66

+6.5

TA&M

L 73-81

−4.5

HOF

L 73-80

−15.5

VILL

L 61-79

−7.5

BING

W 103-63

+15.5

PSU

W 80-46

+35.5

MIA

L 69-76

+2.5

CLEM

L 68-73

−1.5

SYR

L 72-83

−12.5

W 89-66

+21.5

LOU

L 59-100

−33.5

L 62-65

−5.5

NCSU

L 72-81

−2.5

WAKE

W 80-76

+2.5

CLEM

L 52-63

−0.5

UVA

L 47-67

−7.5

SMU

L 67-86

−14.5

DUKE

L 54-70

+1.5

UNC

L 65-79

−2.5

W 73-68

+1.5

STAN

L 67-75

+0.5

CAL

W 72-56

+22.5

FSU

L 74-75

+0.5

SYR

W 71-69

+7.5

STAN

W 64-63

+5.5

NCSU

L 88-98

−1.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

−12.5

LONG

W 78-60

−7.5

EMU

W 78-66

+2.5

WVU

L 49-71

−14.5

BUCK

W 84-50

−7.5

UCF

L 67-77

−5.5

QUIN

L 75-83

+17.5

OSU

W 67-66

−15.5

TA&M

L 73-81

+1.5

HOF

L 73-80

+18.5

VILL

L 61-79

+1.5

BING

W 103-63

+31.5

PSU

W 80-46

−20.5

MIA

L 69-76

+0.5

CLEM

L 68-73

+5.5

SYR

L 72-83

+12.5

W 89-66

+9.5

LOU

L 59-100

+6.5

L 62-65

−10.5

NCSU

L 72-81

+8.5

WAKE

W 80-76

+5.5

CLEM

L 52-63

−20.5

UVA

L 47-67

−28.5

SMU

L 67-86

+5.5

DUKE

L 54-70

−12.5

UNC

L 65-79

+1.5

W 73-68

+0.5

STAN

L 67-75

+3.5

CAL

W 72-56

−15.5

FSU

L 74-75

+4.5

SYR

W 71-69

−1.5

STAN

W 64-63

−9.5

NCSU

L 88-98

+41.5

over 19under 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pitt has the better starters

Position by position: Drexel 0, Pitt 3, even 2

DrexelBetterPitt

G J. Reed7.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 44

PITTSmall

G N. George TR10.9 pts · 3 reb · 5.4 ast Score 75

G A. Abram TR3.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 80

Even

G A. Sumler TR19.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.9 ast Score 93

G D. Tingler3.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.3 ast Score 59

Even

F T. Rudovskii TR13.1 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 59

F P. Pagonis TR4.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 1 ast Score 6

PITTBig

F B. Ndongo TR11.8 pts · 8.1 reb · 2.4 ast Score 90

F M. de LaPorterie2.9 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 12

PITTBig

C A. Mighty TR13.3 pts · 10.9 reb · 1 ast Score 71

DrexelBetterPitt

DREX offense323rd of 366 · -10.5

PITTBig

PITT defense59th of 366 · +1.3

DREX defense175th of 366 · -3.9

PITTSmall

PITT offense87th of 366 · +0.2

Backcourt-0.2 · 3 players

PITTBig

Backcourt+4.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt-3.5 · 2 players

PITTBig

Frontcourt+5.4 · 3 players

Bench-0.1 · 2 players

DREXBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDREX betterPITT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Drexel

Guards

J. Reed19 minA. Abram11 min · TRD. Tingler10 minM. Davis2 minL. PittmanNewM. HippsNew

Forwards

P. Pagonis18 min · TRM. de LaPorterie13 minR. Akuta5 minC. EdomwonyinNewD. SimonovicNew

Pitt

Guards

N. George32 min · TRA. Sumler31 min · TRC. Hawkins27 min · TRJ. Powell16 min · TRJ. Bethea8 min · TRM. Moore6 min

Forwards

T. Rudovskii32 min · TRB. Ndongo27 min · TRA. Souare8 min · TRD. Diomande8 min · TRB. MayhewNewJ. NelsonNew

Centers

A. Mighty32 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DREX67.3 #328

PITT70.5 #274

Points per possession

DREX1.03 #282

PITT1.08 #181

Pace (possessions)

DREX65.2 #341

PITT65.0 #345

Shooting

Effective FG%

DREX50.6 #204

PITT51.0 #193

3-point %

DREX35.5 #90

PITT33.4 #206

3-point attempt rate

DREX40.0 #171

PITT42.6 #124

Free throw rate

DREX31.6 #265

PITT30.4 #300

Possessions

Turnover rate

DREX19.1 #322

PITT17.2 #223

Offensive rebound rate

DREX31.2 #156

PITT33.9 #72

Assists per game

DREX12.8 #226

PITT13.2 #197

Defense

Points allowed

DREX67.6 #26

PITT71.8 #101

Points allowed per possession

DREX1.04 #64

PITT1.11 #237

Opponent effective FG%

DREX47.1 #22

PITT53.4 #279

Opponent 3-point %

DREX30.3 #15

PITT35.2 #263

Turnovers forced

DREX16.4 #195

PITT16.3 #202

Defensive rebound rate

DREX69.0 #202

PITT71.9 #68

Steals per game

DREX5.8 #254

PITT6.5 #172

Blocks per game

DREX3.5 #144

PITT3.1 #203

DREX		PITT
Scoring
67.3 #328	Points per game	70.5 #274
1.03 #282	Points per possession	1.08 #181
65.2 #341	Pace (possessions)	65.0 #345
Shooting
50.6 #204	Effective FG%	51.0 #193
35.5 #90	3-point %	33.4 #206
40.0 #171	3-point attempt rate	42.6 #124
31.6 #265	Free throw rate	30.4 #300
Possessions
19.1 #322	Turnover rate	17.2 #223
31.2 #156	Offensive rebound rate	33.9 #72
12.8 #226	Assists per game	13.2 #197
Defense
67.6 #26	Points allowed	71.8 #101
1.04 #64	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #237
47.1 #22	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #279
30.3 #15	Opponent 3-point %	35.2 #263
16.4 #195	Turnovers forced	16.3 #202
69.0 #202	Defensive rebound rate	71.9 #68
5.8 #254	Steals per game	6.5 #172
3.5 #144	Blocks per game	3.1 #203

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Drexel

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Monmouth57–65
Wvs Northeastern84–77
L@ Hofstra51–62
Wvs Campbell65–60
Wvs Towson68–62

A week or more of rest.

Pitt

13-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs NC State88–98
Wvs Stanford64–63
W@ Syracuse71–69
Lvs Florida St74–75
W@ California72–56

A week or more of rest.

Drexel Dragons at Pittsburgh Panthers

What could decide it: PITT has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Drexel

Pitt

Pitt has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Drexel

Pitt