John Paul Jones Arena · at Virginia · Conference game
Closing line
UVA -12.5✓ UVA covered by 7.5
UVA -12.5✓ UVA covered by 7.5Closing total142.5Under by 28.5
 PITT | This season | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| 9-13 | Record | 18-3 |
| 9-13 | ATS | 12-9 |
| 13-9 | O/U | 9-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PITT 68–79 UVA · ✓ UVA (83%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PITT | 20 | 27 | 47 |
| UVA | 33 | 34 | 67 |
1st half: PITT 20, UVA 33 (UVA by 13). The model had UVA by 6.4 and a total of 68.6 (actual 53).
Team stats
| PITT | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 17-46 37% | Field goals | 26-59 44% |
| 6-19 32% | 3-pointers | 11-31 35% |
| 7-12 58% | Free throws | 4-9 44% |
| 31 8 off | Rebounds | 38 13 off |
| 12 | Assists | 18 |
| 5 | Steals | 12 |
| 5 | Blocks | 6 |
| 17 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 18 |
Players
| PITT | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omari Witherspoon G | 39 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-2 |
| Roman Siulepa F | 35 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3-7 | 1-3 |
| Damarco Minor G | 35 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3-8 | 2-7 |
| Cameron Corhen F | 33 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4-10 | 1-2 |
| Barry Dunning Jr. G | 23 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Nojus Indrusaitis G | 29 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 4-7 | 2-3 |
| Macari Moore G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Kieran Mullen C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Dishon Jackson, Henry Lau, Amdy Ndiaye, Jajuan Nelson, Benjamin Mayhew, Papa Amadou Kante, Brandin Cummings
| UVA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Lewis G | 27 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 5-10 | 4-8 |
| Thijs De Ridder F | 25 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 4-7 | 1-2 |
| Dallin Hall G | 25 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Malik Thomas G | 22 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 4-10 | 1-4 |
| Johann Grunloh C | 19 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-7 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chance Mallory G | 23 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 5-8 | 1-2 |
| Ugonna Onyenso C | 21 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Jacari White G | 20 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0-8 | 0-7 |
| Devin Tillis F | 18 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Elijah Gertrude, Owen Odom, Martin Carrere, Carter Lang, Desmond Roberts, Silas Barksdale
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUVA -12.5
ModelUVA -11.0
Model edgePITT +1.5
L UVA covered
Total
Market142.5
Model146.5
Model edgeOver 4.0
L Under
Projected score
PITT 67.8 · UVA 78.8
PITT 47 · UVA 67
Win probability
UVA 83%
1st half
Spread
UVA -6.4
UVA -13.0
Total
68.6
53 points
Projected score
PITT 31.1 · UVA 37.5
PITT 20 · UVA 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVA -15.5
3 → PITT
CloseUVA -12.5
3 pts toward PITT
Total
Open142.5
no move
Close142.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
PITT +650 · UVA -1000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVA -15.5 · closed UVA -12.5 · moved 3 toward PITTmodel UVA -11
model UVA -11
Opened 142.5 · unchangedmodel 146.5
model 146.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PITT | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
| UVA | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
PITT 2–3 UVAUVA leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · PITT 3-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2024-25 | UVA 73 @ PITT 57 | PITT -13.5 | UVA W |
| Feb 13, 2023-24 | PITT 74 @ UVA 63 | UVA -6.5 | PITT W |
| Jan 3, 2022-23 | UVA 65 @ PITT 68 | PITT +6.5 | PITT W |
| Jan 19, 2021-22 | UVA 66 @ PITT 61 | PITT +3.5 | UVA W |
| Dec 3, 2021-22 | PITT 56 @ UVA 57 | UVA -14.5 | PITT W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Pitt
22 games played
Straight up
9-13
41% wins
Against the spread
9-13
41% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-9
59% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs YSU | W 74-59 | -14.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 7 | vs LONG | W 78-60 | -14.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 10 | vs EMU | W 78-66 | -15.5 | L −3.5 | 141.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 13 | @ WVU | L 49-71 | +5.5 | L −16.5 | 134.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 17 | vs BUCK | W 84-50 | -16.5 | W +17.5 | 141.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 20 | vs UCF | L 67-77 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 23 | vs QUIN | L 75-83 | -12.5 | L −20.5 | 140.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 28 | vs OSU | W 67-66 | +5.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 2 | vs TA&M | L 73-81 | +3.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 7 | vs HOF | L 73-80 | -8.5 | L −15.5 | 134.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 13 | @ VILL | L 61-79 | +10.5 | L −7.5 | 138.5 | O 140 |
| Dec 17 | vs BING | W 103-63 | -24.5 | W +15.5 | 134.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 21 | vs PSU | W 80-46 | +1.5 | W +35.5 | 146.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 30 | @ MIA | L 69-76 | +9.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 3 | vs CLEM | L 68-73 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 135.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 10 | vs SYR | L 72-83 | -1.5 | L −12.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 14 | @ GT | W 89-66 | -1.5 | W +21.5 | 145.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 17 | vs LOU | L 59-100 | +7.5 | L −33.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 21 | @ BC | L 62-65 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 137.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 24 | vs NCSU | L 72-81 | +6.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 27 | vs WAKE | W 80-76 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 31 | @CLEM | L 52-63 | +10.5 | L −0.5 | 135.5 | U 115 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsYSU
YSUW 74-59
+0.5
7
vsLONG
LONGW 78-60
+3.5
10
vsEMU
EMUW 78-66
−3.5
13
@WVU
WVUL 49-71
−16.5
17
vsBUCK
BUCKW 84-50
+17.5
20
vsUCF
UCFL 67-77
−11.5
23
vsQUIN
QUINL 75-83
−20.5
28
vsOSU
OSUW 67-66
+6.5
2
vsTA&M
TA&ML 73-81
−4.5
7
vsHOF
HOFL 73-80
−15.5
13
@VILL
VILLL 61-79
−7.5
17
vsBING
BINGW 103-63
+15.5
21
vsPSU
PSUW 80-46
+35.5
30
@MIA
MIAL 69-76
+2.5
3
vsCLEM
CLEML 68-73
−1.5
10
vsSYR
SYRL 72-83
−12.5
14
@GT
GTW 89-66
+21.5
17
vsLOU
LOUL 59-100
−33.5
21
@BC
BCL 62-65
−5.5
24
vsNCSU
NCSUL 72-81
−2.5
27
vsWAKE
WAKEW 80-76
+2.5
31
@CLEM
CLEML 52-63
−0.5
covered 9didn’t cover 13avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsYSU
YSUW 74-59
−12.5
7
vsLONG
LONGW 78-60
−7.5
10
vsEMU
EMUW 78-66
+2.5
13
@WVU
WVUL 49-71
−14.5
17
vsBUCK
BUCKW 84-50
−7.5
20
vsUCF
UCFL 67-77
−5.5
23
vsQUIN
QUINL 75-83
+17.5
28
vsOSU
OSUW 67-66
−15.5
2
vsTA&M
TA&ML 73-81
+1.5
7
vsHOF
HOFL 73-80
+18.5
13
@VILL
VILLL 61-79
+1.5
17
vsBING
BINGW 103-63
+31.5
21
vsPSU
PSUW 80-46
−20.5
30
@MIA
MIAL 69-76
+0.5
3
vsCLEM
CLEML 68-73
+5.5
10
vsSYR
SYRL 72-83
+12.5
14
@GT
GTW 89-66
+9.5
17
vsLOU
LOUL 59-100
+6.5
21
@BC
BCL 62-65
−10.5
24
vsNCSU
NCSUL 72-81
+8.5
27
vsWAKE
WAKEW 80-76
+5.5
31
@CLEM
CLEML 52-63
−20.5
over 13under 9avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Virginia
21 games played
Straight up
18-3
86% wins
Against the spread
12-9
57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-12
43% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RID | W 87-53 | -26.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 7 | vs NCCU | W 81-62 | -34.5 | L −15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 11 | vs HAMP | W 91-53 | -24.5 | W +13.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 15 | vs MRSH | W 104-78 | -20.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 21 | vs NU | W 83-78 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 23 | vs BTLR | L 73-80 | -6.5 | L −13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs QUC | W 94-69 | -25.5 | L −0.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 3 | @ TEX | W 88-69 | +3.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 6 | vs DAY | W 86-73 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 9 | vs UMES | W 84-60 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 134.5 | O 144 |
| Dec 20 | vs MD | W 80-72 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 22 | vs AMER | W 95-51 | -27.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 31 | @ VT | L 85-95 | -5.5 | L −15.5 | 153.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @NCSU | W 76-61 | +4.5 | W +19.5 | 151.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 7 | vs CAL | W 84-60 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | vs STAN | W 70-55 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 143.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 13 | @LOU | W 79-70 | +4.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ SMU | W 72-68 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 24 | vs UNC | L 80-85 | -6.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 27 | @ ND | W 100-97 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | O 197 |
| Jan 31 | @BC | W 73-66 | -13.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
+7.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−15.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
+13.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+5.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+0.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−13.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
−0.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+22.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+7.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
−12.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−8.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
+16.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
−15.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
+19.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
+9.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
+2.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
+13.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
+1.5
24
vsUNC
UNCL 80-85
−11.5
27
@ND
NDW 100-97
−6.5
31
@BC
BCW 73-66
−6.5
covered 12didn’t cover 9avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRID
RIDW 87-53
−8.5
7
vsNCCU
NCCUW 81-62
−8.5
11
vsHAMP
HAMPW 91-53
−4.5
15
vsMRSH
MRSHW 104-78
+26.5
21
vsNU
NUW 83-78
+11.5
23
vsBTLR
BTLRL 73-80
−2.5
28
vsQUC
QUCW 94-69
+2.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 88-69
+2.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 86-73
+11.5
9
vsUMES
UMESW 84-60
+9.5
20
vsMD
MDW 80-72
−1.5
22
vsAMER
AMERW 95-51
−7.5
31
@VT
VTL 85-95
+26.5
3
@NCSU
NCSUW 76-61
−14.5
7
vsCAL
CALW 84-60
−4.5
10
vsSTAN
STANW 70-55
−18.5
13
@LOU
LOUW 79-70
−5.5
17
@SMU
SMUW 72-68
−13.5
24
vsUNC
UNCL 80-85
+12.5
27
@ND
NDW 100-97
+51.5
31
@BC
BCW 73-66
−2.5
over 9under 12avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Pitt
9-13 overall · 2-7 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Clemson52–63
- Wvs Wake Forest80–76
- Lvs NC State72–81
- L@ Boston College62–65
- Lvs Louisville59–100
3 days since their last game.
Virginia
18-3 overall · 7-2 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Boston College73–66
- W@ Notre Dame100–97
- Lvs North Carolina80–85
- W@ SMU72–68
- W@ Louisville79–70
3 days since their last game.