FedExForum · at Grizzlies · Conference game
Line
MEM -5.5moved 1 toward NO
MEM -5.5moved 1 toward NOTotal233.5down 2 from 235.5
 NO | This season | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 6-0 |
| 4-2 | ATS | 6-0 |
| 4-2 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects MEM 120–116 · win probability MEM 60%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
MEM -5.5
moved 1 toward NO
Total
233.5
model 236.0 · Over by 2.5
Model edge
NO by 2
model vs market
Public on the spread
76% MEM
66% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges
NO 1, MEM 5 · 2026-27 so far
MEMBigMEM offense vs NO defense
Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
MEMBigThree-pointers
NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 32.8% and 42.1% of their shots
MEMBigShooting
Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2
NOBigFree throws
Free throw rate: NO 35.3, MEM 25.3. Allowed: NO 30.6, MEM 31.4
MEMSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, MEM 30.6%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, MEM 75.0%
Context
Tempo
About 106 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), MEM 103.6 (13th). Faster games mean more points
MEMSmallHome court
MEM at home. This season: MEM 2-0 at home, NO 0-2 away
Even
Recent form
Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, MEM 15.4%. Forced: NO 16.3%, MEM 15.7%
Context
Schedule so far
NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, MEM the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
NO offense vs MEM defense
Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rest
NO 2 days since its last game, MEM 2
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, MEM 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, MEM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
How games like this went
NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites of 3 to 6.5 | 873 | 63% | 49% | 52% |
| Conference games at this spread | 970 | 62% | 49% | 52% |
| Games with a total of 230 to 234.5 | 744 | 72% | 52% | 48% |
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
MarketMEM -5.5
ModelMEM -3.5
Model edgeNO +2.0
Total
Market233.5
Model236.0
Model edgeOver 2.5
Projected score
NO 116.2 · MEM 119.8
Win probability
MEM 60%
1st half
Spread
MEM -1.9
Total
118.0
Projected score
NO 58.1 · MEM 59.9
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenMEM -6.5
1 → NO
NowMEM -5.5
1 pt toward NO
Total
Open235.5
▼ 2
Now233.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and current line · tap a dot
Opened MEM -6.5 · now MEM -5.5 · moved 1 toward NOmodel MEM -3.5
model MEM -3.5
Opened 235.5 · now 233.5 · moved 2 downmodel 236
model 236
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
NO +5.5SpreadMEM -5.5Bets
Money
Money is 10 pts ahead of bets on NO +5.5
Over 233.5TotalUnder 233.5
Bets
Money
NOWinnerMEMBets
Money
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% |
| MEMlast 6 | 6-0 100% | 6-0 100% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22
NO 7–13 MEMMEM leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · NO has won the last 2 meetings · NO 8-12 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2025-26 | MEM 106 @ NO 114 | NO -3.5 | NO W |
| Jan 23, 2025-26 | NO 133 @ MEM 127 | MEM -4.5 | NO W |
| Nov 26, 2025-26 | MEM 133 @ NO 128 | NO +3.5 | MEM W |
| Oct 22, 2025-26 | NO 122 @ MEM 128 | MEM -3.5 | MEM W |
| Mar 9, 2024-25 | MEM 107 @ NO 104 | NO +9.5 | NO W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Pelicans
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
IND
INDL 120-123
−0.5
23
@
UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@
DEN
DENL 135-141
+5.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−8.5
29
vs
SAC
SACW 132-120
+5.5
31
vs
ATL
ATLW 121-99
+27.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsIND
INDL 120-123
+4.5
23
@UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@DEN
DENL 135-141
+36.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−46.5
29
vsSAC
SACW 132-120
+17.5
31
vsATL
ATLW 121-99
−19.5
over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Grizzlies
6 games played
Straight up
6-0
100% wins
Against the spread
6-0
100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vsUTAH
UTAHW 123-103
+18.5
23
@
GS
GSW 111-108
+7.5
25
@SAC
SACW 123-112
+7.5
26
@UTAH
UTAHW 110-105
+3.5
29
@
POR
PORW 124-103
+28.5
31
vsSAC
SACW 136-105
+23.5
covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsUTAH
UTAHW 123-103
−14.5
23
@GS
GSW 111-108
−17.5
25
@SAC
SACW 123-112
+0.5
26
@UTAH
UTAHW 110-105
−22.5
29
@POR
PORW 124-103
−6.5
31
vsSAC
SACW 136-105
+11.5
over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Grizzlies has the better starters
Position by position: Pelicans 1, Grizzlies 3, even 1
PelicansBetterGrizzlies
G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast
Score 45
→MEMBig
G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 97
G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 19
→MEMBig
F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast
Score 87
F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 81
←NOBig
F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast
Score 33
F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 75
=Even
F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast
Score 85
C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast
Score 52
→MEMBig
C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast
Score 92
PelicansBetterGrizzlies
NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1
=Even
MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1
NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7
→MEMBig
MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
→MEMBig
Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player
Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players
→MEMBig
Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players
Bench-16.0 · 5 players
←NOSmall
Bench-18.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNO betterMEM betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
PelicansGuards
D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min
Forwards
Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min
Centers
D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min
Out
J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut
GrizzliesGuards
T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min
Forwards
C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min
Centers
Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min
Out
S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
NO119.7 #7MEM121.2 #1Points per possession
NO1.10 #15MEM1.16 #4Pace (possessions)
NO108.0 #2MEM103.6 #13Shooting
Effective FG%
NO55.1 #9MEM55.9 #53-point %
NO31.2 #25MEM41.7 #13-point attempt rate
NO32.8 #30MEM42.1 #19Free throw rate
NO35.3 #4MEM25.3 #22Possessions
Turnover rate
NO17.4 #26MEM15.4 #16Offensive rebound rate
NO24.3 #25MEM30.6 #5Assists per game
NO25.5 #21MEM27.0 #13Defense
Points allowed
NO117.8 #24MEM106.0 #3Points allowed per possession
NO1.09 #16MEM1.03 #2Opponent effective FG%
NO54.2 #21MEM49.2 #3Opponent 3-point %
NO30.5 #5MEM30.0 #3Turnovers forced
NO16.3 #10MEM15.7 #15Defensive rebound rate
NO76.4 #6MEM75.0 #9Steals per game
NO13.7 #1MEM6.3 #28Blocks per game
NO4.8 #16MEM5.2 #11| NO | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 119.7 #7 | Points per game | 121.2 #1 |
| 1.10 #15 | Points per possession | 1.16 #4 |
| 108.0 #2 | Pace (possessions) | 103.6 #13 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.1 #9 | Effective FG% | 55.9 #5 |
| 31.2 #25 | 3-point % | 41.7 #1 |
| 32.8 #30 | 3-point attempt rate | 42.1 #19 |
| 35.3 #4 | Free throw rate | 25.3 #22 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.4 #26 | Turnover rate | 15.4 #16 |
| 24.3 #25 | Offensive rebound rate | 30.6 #5 |
| 25.5 #21 | Assists per game | 27.0 #13 |
| Defense | ||
| 117.8 #24 | Points allowed | 106.0 #3 |
| 1.09 #16 | Points allowed per possession | 1.03 #2 |
| 54.2 #21 | Opponent effective FG% | 49.2 #3 |
| 30.5 #5 | Opponent 3-point % | 30.0 #3 |
| 16.3 #10 | Turnovers forced | 15.7 #15 |
| 76.4 #6 | Defensive rebound rate | 75.0 #9 |
| 13.7 #1 | Steals per game | 6.3 #28 |
| 4.8 #16 | Blocks per game | 5.2 #11 |
Pelicans
2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Hawks121–99
- Wvs Kings132–120
- Lvs Nuggets91–104
- L@ Nuggets135–141
- L@ Jazz119–120
2 days since their last game.
Grizzlies
6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Kings136–105
- W@ Trail Blazers124–103
- W@ Jazz110–105
- W@ Kings123–112
- W@ Warriors111–108
2 days since their last game.