Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 4, 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · at Grizzlies

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pacers and Grizzlies
IND	This season	MEM
2-5	Record	6-0
3-4	ATS	6-0
3-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MEM 120–113 · win probability MEM 69%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

IND 0, MEM 8 · 2026-27 so far

MEMBig

Three-pointers

IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 43.1% and 42.1% of their shots

MEMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, MEM 30.6%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, MEM 75.0%

MEMBig

MEM offense vs IND defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2

MEMBig

IND offense vs MEM defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

MEMBig

Recent form

Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2

MEMSmall

Home court

MEM at home. This season: MEM 2-0 at home, IND 2-2 away

MEMSmall

Rest

IND 3 days since its last game, MEM 4

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: IND 31.2, MEM 25.3. Allowed: IND 32.1, MEM 31.4

Context

Schedule so far

IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, MEM the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, MEM 15.4%. Forced: IND 14.9%, MEM 15.7%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), MEM 103.6 (13th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, MEM 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, MEM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	2-0	—

Venue/role: IND away; MEM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs DEN	L120–135LO
Nov 9	@ DAL	L105–121LU
Nov 11	vs WSH	L118–131LO

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	vs OKC	L116–117WO
Nov 9	@ TOR	L96–128LU
Nov 11	vs DEN	L119–136WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

IND 2–8 MEMMEM leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MEM has won the last 2 meetings · IND 1-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 1, 2025-26	MEM 125 @ IND 106	IND -1.5	MEM W
Oct 25, 2025-26	IND 103 @ MEM 128	MEM -1.5	MEM W
Feb 20, 2024-25	MEM 113 @ IND 127	IND -0.5	IND W
Dec 1, 2024-25	IND 121 @ MEM 136	MEM -5.5	MEM W
Jan 28, 2023-24	MEM 110 @ IND 116	IND -7.5	MEM W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Pacers 1, Grizzlies 3, even 1

PacersBetterGrizzlies

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

MEMSmall

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

MEMBig

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

INDSmall

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

Even

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

MEMBig

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

PacersBetterGrizzlies

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

MEMBig

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

MEMBig

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

MEMBig

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

MEMBig

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestIND betterMEM betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IND112.9 #18

MEM121.2 #1

Points per possession

IND1.10 #17

MEM1.16 #4

Pace (possessions)

IND103.1 #15

MEM103.6 #13

Shooting

Effective FG%

IND53.9 #14

MEM55.9 #5

3-point %

IND34.1 #18

MEM41.7 #1

3-point attempt rate

IND43.1 #15

MEM42.1 #19

Free throw rate

IND31.2 #12

MEM25.3 #22

Possessions

Turnover rate

IND14.8 #10

MEM15.4 #16

Offensive rebound rate

IND23.1 #27

MEM30.6 #5

Assists per game

IND28.0 #7

MEM27.0 #13

Defense

Points allowed

IND116.7 #23

MEM106.0 #3

Points allowed per possession

IND1.13 #23

MEM1.03 #2

Opponent effective FG%

IND53.9 #19

MEM49.2 #3

Opponent 3-point %

IND35.9 #20

MEM30.0 #3

Turnovers forced

IND14.9 #19

MEM15.7 #15

Defensive rebound rate

IND72.7 #16

MEM75.0 #9

Steals per game

IND6.9 #27

MEM6.3 #28

Blocks per game

IND4.0 #26

MEM5.2 #11

IND		MEM
Scoring
112.9 #18	Points per game	121.2 #1
1.10 #17	Points per possession	1.16 #4
103.1 #15	Pace (possessions)	103.6 #13
Shooting
53.9 #14	Effective FG%	55.9 #5
34.1 #18	3-point %	41.7 #1
43.1 #15	3-point attempt rate	42.1 #19
31.2 #12	Free throw rate	25.3 #22
Possessions
14.8 #10	Turnover rate	15.4 #16
23.1 #27	Offensive rebound rate	30.6 #5
28.0 #7	Assists per game	27.0 #13
Defense
116.7 #23	Points allowed	106.0 #3
1.13 #23	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #2
53.9 #19	Opponent effective FG%	49.2 #3
35.9 #20	Opponent 3-point %	30.0 #3
14.9 #19	Turnovers forced	15.7 #15
72.7 #16	Defensive rebound rate	75.0 #9
6.9 #27	Steals per game	6.3 #28
4.0 #26	Blocks per game	5.2 #11

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

3 days since their last game.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

4 days since their last game.

Pacers @ Grizzlies

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pacers

Grizzlies

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pacers

Grizzlies