Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 9, 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Grizzlies and Raptors
MEM	This season	TOR
6-0	Record	3-3
6-0	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 118–111 · win probability TOR 69%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

MEM 3, TOR 2 · 2026-27 so far

MEMBig

Three-pointers

MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 42.1% and 38.1% of their shots

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

TORBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, TOR 20.8%

Context

Schedule so far

MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

MEMBig

Recent form

Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, MEM 4-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

Even

MEM offense vs TOR defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, TOR 27.7. Allowed: MEM 31.4, TOR 41.5

Even

TOR offense vs MEM defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, TOR 73.4%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	4-0	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: MEM away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs DEN	L119–136WO
Nov 13	@ NO	L106–114LU
Nov 14	vs BKN	L115–126LO

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs BOS	L101–115LU
Nov 12	@ PHI	L102–115LU
Nov 15	vs NY	L95–112LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

MEM 5–5 TORSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · TOR has won the last 2 meetings · MEM 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 3, 2025-26	TOR 128 @ MEM 96	MEM +14.5	TOR W
Nov 2, 2025-26	MEM 104 @ TOR 117	TOR -4.5	TOR W
Feb 5, 2024-25	MEM 138 @ TOR 107	TOR +9.5	MEM W
Dec 26, 2024-25	TOR 126 @ MEM 155	MEM -10.5	MEM W
Jan 22, 2023-24	MEM 108 @ TOR 100	TOR -7.5	MEM W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Grizzlies 3, Raptors 1, even 1

GrizzliesBetterRaptors

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

MEMBig

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

MEMSmall

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

TORBig

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

Even

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

MEMBig

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

GrizzliesBetterRaptors

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

Even

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

Even

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

MEMBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMEM betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MEM121.2 #1

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

MEM1.16 #4

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

MEM103.6 #13

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

MEM55.9 #5

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

MEM41.7 #1

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

MEM42.1 #19

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

MEM25.3 #22

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

MEM15.4 #16

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

MEM30.6 #5

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

MEM27.0 #13

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

MEM106.0 #3

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

MEM1.03 #2

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

MEM49.2 #3

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

MEM30.0 #3

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

MEM15.7 #15

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

MEM75.0 #9

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

MEM6.3 #28

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

MEM5.2 #11

TOR4.3 #19

MEM		TOR
Scoring
121.2 #1	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.16 #4	Points per possession	1.11 #13
103.6 #13	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
55.9 #5	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
41.7 #1	3-point %	32.0 #24
42.1 #19	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
25.3 #22	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
15.4 #16	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
30.6 #5	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
27.0 #13	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
106.0 #3	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.03 #2	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
49.2 #3	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
30.0 #3	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
15.7 #15	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
75.0 #9	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
6.3 #28	Steals per game	12.7 #2
5.2 #11	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies @ Raptors

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Grizzlies

Raptors

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Grizzlies

Raptors