Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 11, 7:00 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and Raptors
BOS	This season	TOR
5-1	Record	3-3
3-3	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 111–110 · win probability BOS 53%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 221.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

BOS 4, TOR 4 · 2026-27 so far

TORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, TOR 73.4%

BOSBig

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 45.9% and 38.1% of their shots

BOSBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

BOSBig

TOR offense vs BOS defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

BOSSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, TOR 27.7. Allowed: BOS 31.7, TOR 41.5

TORSmall

BOS offense vs TOR defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TORSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, TOR 20.8%

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, BOS 1-1 away

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: BOS away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs DAL	W120–100WU
Nov 16	vs ORL	W108–97WU
Nov 18	@ DEN	L84–103LU

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 12	@ PHI	L102–115LU
Nov 15	vs NY	L95–112LU
Nov 17	vs NY	L95–112LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

BOS 17–3 TORBOS leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 5 meetings · BOS 12-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 5, 2025-26	TOR 101 @ BOS 115	BOS -9.5	BOS W
Jan 9, 2025-26	TOR 117 @ BOS 125	BOS -9.5	TOR W
Dec 20, 2025-26	BOS 112 @ TOR 96	TOR -1.5	BOS W
Dec 7, 2025-26	BOS 121 @ TOR 113	TOR +3.5	BOS W
Feb 25, 2024-25	BOS 111 @ TOR 101	TOR +10.5	TOR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 2, Raptors 1, even 2

CelticsBetterRaptors

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

BOSBig

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

Even

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

BOSSmall

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

TORSmall

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

Even

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

CelticsBetterRaptors

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

TORSmall

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

BOSSmall

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

BOSSmall

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

TOR4.3 #19

BOS		TOR
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.11 #13
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
35.5 #10	3-point %	32.0 #24
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
28.0 #6	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
9.2 #9	Steals per game	12.7 #2
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Raptors

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Raptors

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Raptors