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NBA · Mon, Nov 9

Pacers @ Mavericks

American Airlines Center · at Mavericks
#25INDPacers
@
#17DALMavericks
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
INDThis seasonDAL
2-5Record4-2
3-4ATS4-2
3-4O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAL 121–111 · win probability DAL 75%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 231.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges

IND 1, DAL 6 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
DALBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3
DALBig
Three-pointers
IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 43.1% and 42.1% of their shots
DALBig
DAL offense vs IND defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings
INDBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: IND 14.9%, DAL 14.5%
DALSmall
IND offense vs DAL defense
Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
DALSmall
Recent form
Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6
DALSmall
Home court
DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, IND 2-2 away
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, DAL 69.4%
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: IND 31.2, DAL 21.4. Allowed: IND 32.1, DAL 27.2
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDAL -9.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model231.8
Model edge—
Projected score
IND 111.3 · DAL 120.6
Win probability
DAL 75%
1st half
Spread
DAL -5.1
Total
116.0
Projected score
IND 55.4 · DAL 60.6
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Pacers 2, Mavericks 2, even 1
PacersBetterMavericks
G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70
INDBig
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9
G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32
DALBig
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
INDSmall
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49
F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74
Even
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65
C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10
DALBig
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46
PacersBetterMavericks
IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3
DALSmall
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8
DALSmall
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players
INDBig
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players
DALBig
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
Bench-26.3 · 5 players
DALBig
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestIND betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pacers
Guards
A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min
Forwards
P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min
Centers
J. Huff17 min
Out
I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut
Mavericks
Guards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
INDDAL
Scoring
112.9 #18Points per game114.3 #14
1.10 #17Points per possession1.12 #11
103.1 #15Pace (possessions)102.8 #18
Shooting
53.9 #14Effective FG%56.9 #2
34.1 #183-point %35.1 #14
43.1 #153-point attempt rate42.1 #18
31.2 #12Free throw rate21.4 #29
Possessions
14.8 #10Turnover rate16.8 #23
23.1 #27Offensive rebound rate27.8 #13
28.0 #7Assists per game27.0 #12
Defense
116.7 #23Points allowed111.8 #14
1.13 #23Points allowed per possession1.08 #13
53.9 #19Opponent effective FG%51.3 #9
35.9 #20Opponent 3-point %29.7 #2
14.9 #19Turnovers forced14.5 #24
72.7 #16Defensive rebound rate69.4 #25
6.9 #27Steals per game8.8 #16
4.0 #26Blocks per game6.8 #2
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Nets90–98
  • L@ Heat125–145
  • Lvs 76ers109–114
  • L@ Bucks102–110
  • W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Rockets116–111
  • Wvs Thunder120–96
  • W@ Heat113–109
  • Lvs Spurs106–122
  • W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.