Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 9, 7:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · at Pistons · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Pistons
WSH	This season	DET
3-3	Record	5-1
3-3	ATS	5-1
1-5	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 118–105 · win probability DET 83%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 223.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

WSH 1, DET 7 · 2026-27 so far

DETBig

WSH offense vs DET defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings

DETBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, DET 72.8%

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, DET 28.9. Allowed: WSH 21.8, DET 28.1

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DETSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, DET 15.6%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, DET 17.1%

DETSmall

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0

DETSmall

DET offense vs WSH defense

Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

DETSmall

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 37.6% and 43.3% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points

DETSmall

Home court

DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, WSH 1-2 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
DET WWLWW	5-1	83%	2-0	—

Venue/role: WSH away; DET home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
DET OUUUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
DETlast 6	5-1 83%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	@ IND	W131–118WO
Nov 12	vs DET	L95–117LU
Nov 15	vs HOU	L118–123WO

Pistons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 12	@ WSH	W117–95WU
Nov 14	@ MIA	W128–111WO
Nov 17	@ SA	L106–121LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

WSH 11–7 DETWSH leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · DET has won the last 2 meetings · WSH 10-7-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 19, 2025-26	DET 117 @ WSH 95	WSH +14.5	DET W
Mar 17, 2025-26	DET 130 @ WSH 117	WSH +19.5	WSH W
Feb 5, 2025-26	WSH 126 @ DET 117	DET -16.5	WSH W
Nov 10, 2025-26	WSH 135 @ DET 137	DET -10.5	WSH W
Mar 13, 2024-25	WSH 129 @ DET 125	DET -13.5	WSH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pistons

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsBOS	W 121-113	+1.5	W +9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	@MIA	W 128-111	-2.5	W +14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 25	@PHI	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 27	@NY	L 97-111	+4.5	L −9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	vsCHA	W 97-89	-7.5	W +0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@BKN	W 110-94	-8.5	W +7.5	222.5	U 204

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+9.5

MIA

W 128-111

+14.5

PHI

W 106-93

+11.5

L 97-111

−9.5

CHA

W 97-89

+0.5

BKN

W 110-94

+7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BOS

W 121-113

+13.5

MIA

W 128-111

+3.5

PHI

W 106-93

−29.5

L 97-111

−12.5

CHA

W 97-89

−26.5

BKN

W 110-94

−18.5

over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 0, Pistons 3, even 2

WizardsBetterPistons

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

DETSmall

G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

DETBig

G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

Even

F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

DETBig

F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30

WizardsBetterPistons

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

DETBig

DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

DETSmall

DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

DETBig

Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

DETBig

Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

DETBig

Bench+22.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Pistons

Guards

C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min

Forwards

D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min

Centers

I. Jones5 min

Out

I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

DET109.8 #21

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

DET1.09 #18

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

DET100.9 #29

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

DET53.1 #17

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

DET36.3 #9

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

DET43.3 #13

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

DET28.9 #14

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

DET15.6 #17

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

DET27.2 #17

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

DET26.7 #15

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

DET101.8 #1

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

DET1.01 #1

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

DET48.8 #2

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

DET32.5 #10

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

DET17.1 #6

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

DET72.8 #15

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

DET9.0 #12

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

DET6.7 #4

WSH		DET
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	109.8 #21
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.09 #18
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	100.9 #29
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	53.1 #17
29.3 #29	3-point %	36.3 #9
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	43.3 #13
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	28.9 #14
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	15.6 #17
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	27.2 #17
24.5 #24	Assists per game	26.7 #15
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	101.8 #1
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #1
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	48.8 #2
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	32.5 #10
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	17.1 #6
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	72.8 #15
7.2 #24	Steals per game	9.0 #12
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	6.7 #4

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Nets110–94
Wvs Hornets97–89
L@ Knicks97–111
W@ 76ers106–93
W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ Pistons

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Pistons

Pistons has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Pistons