Houston Rockets at Washington Wizards: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 15, 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · at Wizards

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rockets and Wizards
HOU	This season	WSH
6-1	Record	3-3
6-1	ATS	3-3
5-2	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 119–108 · win probability HOU 78%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 6, WSH 2 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

WSH offense vs HOU defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, WSH 20.9%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, WSH 68.0%

HOUBig

HOU offense vs WSH defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, WSH the 26th. A record against a soft schedule means less

HOUBig

Three-pointers

HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%. Threes are 38.1% and 37.6% of their shots

HOUSmall

Recent form

Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4

WSHSmall

Home court

WSH at home. This season: WSH 2-1 at home, HOU 3-1 away

WSHSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, WSH 34.2. Allowed: HOU 24.7, WSH 21.8

HOUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, WSH 14.6%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, WSH 13.3%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), WSH 102.3 (20th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, WSH 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, WSH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-1	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: HOU away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	@ MIA	W123–122LO
Nov 18	@ IND	W118–114LO
Nov 20	@ DEN	L93–129LU

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 16	vs MEM	W116–112WU
Nov 18	@ TOR	L102–112LU
Nov 20	@ CHI	W124–120WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

HOU 9–1 WSHHOU leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 7 meetings · HOU 8-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 2, 2025-26	HOU 123 @ WSH 118	WSH +14.5	WSH W
Nov 12, 2025-26	WSH 112 @ HOU 135	HOU -17.5	HOU W
Jan 7, 2024-25	HOU 135 @ WSH 112	WSH +13.5	HOU W
Nov 11, 2024-25	WSH 92 @ HOU 107	HOU -12.5	HOU W
Mar 19, 2023-24	HOU 137 @ WSH 114	WSH +10.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Rockets 3, Wizards 0, even 2

RocketsBetterWizards

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

HOUBig

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

HOUBig

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

Even

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

HOUBig

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

No call

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

RocketsBetterWizards

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

HOUBig

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

HOUBig

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestHOU betterWSH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOU120.7 #3

WSH110.5 #20

Points per possession

HOU1.20 #1

WSH1.08 #19

Pace (possessions)

HOU101.6 #24

WSH102.3 #20

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOU56.6 #3

WSH52.1 #20

3-point %

HOU39.0 #3

WSH29.3 #29

3-point attempt rate

HOU38.1 #26

WSH37.6 #28

Free throw rate

HOU31.9 #8

WSH34.2 #5

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOU15.1 #13

WSH14.6 #8

Offensive rebound rate

HOU32.4 #3

WSH20.9 #29

Assists per game

HOU28.1 #5

WSH24.5 #24

Defense

Points allowed

HOU108.3 #7

WSH109.7 #11

Points allowed per possession

HOU1.06 #8

WSH1.07 #11

Opponent effective FG%

HOU52.1 #10

WSH48.1 #1

Opponent 3-point %

HOU30.2 #4

WSH28.7 #1

Turnovers forced

HOU15.7 #16

WSH13.3 #27

Defensive rebound rate

HOU73.2 #14

WSH68.0 #28

Steals per game

HOU9.7 #6

WSH7.2 #24

Blocks per game

HOU5.9 #8

WSH5.3 #9

HOU		WSH
Scoring
120.7 #3	Points per game	110.5 #20
1.20 #1	Points per possession	1.08 #19
101.6 #24	Pace (possessions)	102.3 #20
Shooting
56.6 #3	Effective FG%	52.1 #20
39.0 #3	3-point %	29.3 #29
38.1 #26	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #28
31.9 #8	Free throw rate	34.2 #5
Possessions
15.1 #13	Turnover rate	14.6 #8
32.4 #3	Offensive rebound rate	20.9 #29
28.1 #5	Assists per game	24.5 #24
Defense
108.3 #7	Points allowed	109.7 #11
1.06 #8	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #11
52.1 #10	Opponent effective FG%	48.1 #1
30.2 #4	Opponent 3-point %	28.7 #1
15.7 #16	Turnovers forced	13.3 #27
73.2 #14	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #28
9.7 #6	Steals per game	7.2 #24
5.9 #8	Blocks per game	5.3 #9

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Rockets @ Wizards

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Rockets

Wizards

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rockets

Wizards