Frost Bank Center · at Spurs
LineNo line yet
Total—
 DET | This season | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 4-2 |
| 5-1 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SA 113–108 · win probability SA 63%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 220.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: DET has more of the edges
DET 4, SA 3 · 2026-27 so far
DETBigThree-pointers
DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 43.3% and 39.0% of their shots
SABigDET offense vs SA defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: DET plays 100.9 a game (29th fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points
DETSmallRecent form
Last 5: DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0
SASmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DET 27.2%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: DET 72.8%, SA 75.8%
SASmallHome court
SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, DET 3-1 away
DETSmallSA offense vs DET defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
DETSmallShooting
Effective FG%: DET 53.1 and allows 48.8; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DET 15.6%, SA 13.1%. Forced: DET 17.1%, SA 15.7%
Context
Schedule so far
DET has played the 17th-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: DET 28.9, SA 24.5. Allowed: DET 28.1, SA 21.7
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DET 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: DET 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSA -4.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model220.6
Model edge—
Projected score
DET 107.9 · SA 112.7
Win probability
SA 63%
1st half
Spread
SA -2.6
Total
110.7
Projected score
DET 54.1 · SA 56.7
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DETlast 6 | 5-1 83% | 5-1 83% | 2-4 33% |
| SAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
DET 4–6 SASA leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 2 meetings · DET 4-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2025-26 | DET 106 @ SA 121 | SA -2.5 | SA W |
| Feb 23, 2025-26 | SA 114 @ DET 103 | DET -1.5 | SA W |
| Mar 25, 2024-25 | SA 96 @ DET 122 | DET -9.5 | DET W |
| Feb 21, 2024-25 | DET 125 @ SA 110 | SA +4.5 | DET W |
| Apr 14, 2023-24 | DET 95 @ SA 123 | SA -5.5 | SA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Pistons
6 games played
Straight up
5-1
83% wins
Against the spread
5-1
83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
BOS
BOSW 121-113
+9.5
23
@
MIA
MIAW 128-111
+14.5
25
@
PHI
PHIW 106-93
+11.5
27
@
NY
NYL 97-111
−9.5
28
vs
CHA
CHAW 97-89
+0.5
30
@
BKN
BKNW 110-94
+7.5
covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsBOS
BOSW 121-113
+13.5
23
@MIA
MIAW 128-111
+3.5
25
@PHI
PHIW 106-93
−29.5
27
@NY
NYL 97-111
−12.5
28
vsCHA
CHAW 97-89
−26.5
30
@BKN
BKNW 110-94
−18.5
over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Spurs
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
OKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vs
HOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@
DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vs
SAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@
UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
31
vs
MIN
MINW 121-111
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
+1.5
over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
The starting fives are even
Position by position: Pistons 2, Spurs 2, even 1
PistonsBetterSpurs
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast
Score 47
→SABig
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast
Score 98
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast
Score 79
←DETSmall
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 53
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 77
=Even
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast
Score 84
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast
Score 97
←DETSmall
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 69
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 30
→SABig
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
PistonsBetterSpurs
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
→SASmall
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
=Even
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
→SABig
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
←DETSmall
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
←DETSmall
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDET betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
PistonsGuards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
SpursGuards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
DET109.8 #21SA117.3 #12Points per possession
DET1.09 #18SA1.12 #10Pace (possessions)
DET100.9 #29SA104.3 #11Shooting
Effective FG%
DET53.1 #17SA53.3 #163-point %
DET36.3 #9SA34.9 #173-point attempt rate
DET43.3 #13SA39.0 #24Free throw rate
DET28.9 #14SA24.5 #24Possessions
Turnover rate
DET15.6 #17SA13.1 #2Offensive rebound rate
DET27.2 #17SA27.2 #16Assists per game
DET26.7 #15SA27.5 #9Defense
Points allowed
DET101.8 #1SA110.2 #12Points allowed per possession
DET1.01 #1SA1.06 #6Opponent effective FG%
DET48.8 #2SA52.1 #11Opponent 3-point %
DET32.5 #10SA37.3 #23Turnovers forced
DET17.1 #6SA15.7 #14Defensive rebound rate
DET72.8 #15SA75.8 #7Steals per game
DET9.0 #12SA9.2 #10Blocks per game
DET6.7 #4SA7.0 #1| DET | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 109.8 #21 | Points per game | 117.3 #12 |
| 1.09 #18 | Points per possession | 1.12 #10 |
| 100.9 #29 | Pace (possessions) | 104.3 #11 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.1 #17 | Effective FG% | 53.3 #16 |
| 36.3 #9 | 3-point % | 34.9 #17 |
| 43.3 #13 | 3-point attempt rate | 39.0 #24 |
| 28.9 #14 | Free throw rate | 24.5 #24 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.6 #17 | Turnover rate | 13.1 #2 |
| 27.2 #17 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.2 #16 |
| 26.7 #15 | Assists per game | 27.5 #9 |
| Defense | ||
| 101.8 #1 | Points allowed | 110.2 #12 |
| 1.01 #1 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #6 |
| 48.8 #2 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.1 #11 |
| 32.5 #10 | Opponent 3-point % | 37.3 #23 |
| 17.1 #6 | Turnovers forced | 15.7 #14 |
| 72.8 #15 | Defensive rebound rate | 75.8 #7 |
| 9.0 #12 | Steals per game | 9.2 #10 |
| 6.7 #4 | Blocks per game | 7.0 #1 |
Pistons
5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Nets110–94
- Wvs Hornets97–89
- L@ Knicks97–111
- W@ 76ers106–93
- W@ Heat128–111
A week or more of rest.
Spurs
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Timberwolves121–111
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
A week or more of rest.