Frost Bank Center · at Spurs · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 NO | This season | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 4-2 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 4-2 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SA 123–110 · win probability SA 83%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 232.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: SA has more of the edges
NO 2, SA 5 · 2026-27 so far
SABigSA offense vs NO defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SABigTurnovers
Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, SA 13.1%. Forced: NO 16.3%, SA 15.7%
SASmallNO offense vs SA defense
Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
NOSmallRecent form
Last 5: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0
NOSmallThree-pointers
NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 32.8% and 39.0% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 106 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points
SASmallHome court
SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, NO 0-2 away
SASmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, SA 75.8%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NO 35.3, SA 24.5. Allowed: NO 30.6, SA 21.7
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSA -13.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model232.4
Model edge—
Projected score
NO 109.7 · SA 122.8
Win probability
SA 83%
1st half
Spread
SA -7.3
Total
116.3
Projected score
NO 54.5 · SA 61.8
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% |
| SAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22
NO 12–9 SANO leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · NO 14-7 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2025-26 | NO 104 @ SA 95 | SA -11.5 | NO W |
| Dec 8, 2025-26 | SA 135 @ NO 132 | NO +8.5 | NO W |
| Nov 8, 2025-26 | NO 119 @ SA 126 | SA -11.5 | NO W |
| Oct 24, 2025-26 | SA 120 @ NO 116 | NO +3.5 | SA W |
| Mar 15, 2024-25 | NO 115 @ SA 119 | SA -0.5 | SA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Pelicans
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
IND
INDL 120-123
−0.5
23
@
UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@
DEN
DENL 135-141
+5.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−8.5
29
vs
SAC
SACW 132-120
+5.5
31
vs
ATL
ATLW 121-99
+27.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsIND
INDL 120-123
+4.5
23
@UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@DEN
DENL 135-141
+36.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−46.5
29
vsSAC
SACW 132-120
+17.5
31
vsATL
ATLW 121-99
−19.5
over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Spurs
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
OKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vs
HOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@
DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
31
vs
MIN
MINW 121-111
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
+1.5
over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Spurs has the better starters
Position by position: Pelicans 0, Spurs 3, even 2
PelicansBetterSpurs
G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast
Score 45
→SABig
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast
Score 98
G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 19
→SASmall
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 53
F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 81
=Even
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast
Score 84
F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 75
=Even
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 69
C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast
Score 52
→SABig
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
PelicansBetterSpurs
NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1
→SASmall
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7
→SABig
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
→SABig
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players
→SASmall
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
Bench-16.0 · 5 players
→SABig
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNO betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
PelicansGuards
D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min
Forwards
Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min
Centers
D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min
Out
J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut
SpursGuards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
NO119.7 #7SA117.3 #12Points per possession
NO1.10 #15SA1.12 #10Pace (possessions)
NO108.0 #2SA104.3 #11Shooting
Effective FG%
NO55.1 #9SA53.3 #163-point %
NO31.2 #25SA34.9 #173-point attempt rate
NO32.8 #30SA39.0 #24Free throw rate
NO35.3 #4SA24.5 #24Possessions
Turnover rate
NO17.4 #26SA13.1 #2Offensive rebound rate
NO24.3 #25SA27.2 #16Assists per game
NO25.5 #21SA27.5 #9Defense
Points allowed
NO117.8 #24SA110.2 #12Points allowed per possession
NO1.09 #16SA1.06 #6Opponent effective FG%
NO54.2 #21SA52.1 #11Opponent 3-point %
NO30.5 #5SA37.3 #23Turnovers forced
NO16.3 #10SA15.7 #14Defensive rebound rate
NO76.4 #6SA75.8 #7Steals per game
NO13.7 #1SA9.2 #10Blocks per game
NO4.8 #16SA7.0 #1| NO | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 119.7 #7 | Points per game | 117.3 #12 |
| 1.10 #15 | Points per possession | 1.12 #10 |
| 108.0 #2 | Pace (possessions) | 104.3 #11 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.1 #9 | Effective FG% | 53.3 #16 |
| 31.2 #25 | 3-point % | 34.9 #17 |
| 32.8 #30 | 3-point attempt rate | 39.0 #24 |
| 35.3 #4 | Free throw rate | 24.5 #24 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.4 #26 | Turnover rate | 13.1 #2 |
| 24.3 #25 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.2 #16 |
| 25.5 #21 | Assists per game | 27.5 #9 |
| Defense | ||
| 117.8 #24 | Points allowed | 110.2 #12 |
| 1.09 #16 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #6 |
| 54.2 #21 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.1 #11 |
| 30.5 #5 | Opponent 3-point % | 37.3 #23 |
| 16.3 #10 | Turnovers forced | 15.7 #14 |
| 76.4 #6 | Defensive rebound rate | 75.8 #7 |
| 13.7 #1 | Steals per game | 9.2 #10 |
| 4.8 #16 | Blocks per game | 7.0 #1 |
Pelicans
2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Hawks121–99
- Wvs Kings132–120
- Lvs Nuggets91–104
- L@ Nuggets135–141
- L@ Jazz119–120
A week or more of rest.
Spurs
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Timberwolves121–111
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
A week or more of rest.