Moda Center · at Trail Blazers · Conference game
Line
SA -4.5no move
SA -4.5no moveTotal237.5no move
| SA | This season | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 3-2 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 2-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SA 114–113 · win probability SA 54%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
SA -4.5
no move since the open
Total
237.5
model 226.6 · Under by 11
Model edge
POR by 3
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: POR has more of the edges
SA 2, POR 4 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
SA has played the 15th-hardest schedule, POR the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less
PORBigThree-pointers
SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%; POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 39.0% and 51.5% of their shots
PORSmallShooting
Effective FG%: SA 53.3 and allows 52.1; POR 56.2 and allows 51.3
SASmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: SA 13.1%, POR 14.6%. Forced: SA 15.7%, POR 14.8%
SASmallSA offense vs POR defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
PORSmallFree throws
Free throw rate: SA 24.5, POR 35.9. Allowed: SA 21.7, POR 27.8
PORSmallHome court
POR at home. This season: POR 1-1 at home, SA 2-0 away
Even
POR offense vs SA defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SA 27.2%, POR 27.6%. Defensive: SA 75.8%, POR 77.3%
Even
Recent form
Last 5: SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0; POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: SA plays 104.3 a game (11th fastest), POR 103.5 (14th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SA 100%, POR 100%. Transfers in: SA 0, POR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
How games like this went
NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road favorites of 3 to 6.5 | 630 | 64% | 50% | 51% |
| Conference games at this spread | 970 | 62% | 49% | 52% |
| Games with a total of 235 to 239.5 | 531 | 68% | 51% | 50% |
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
MarketSA -4.5
ModelSA -1.3
Model edgePOR +3.2
Total
Market237.5
Model226.6
Model edgeUnder 10.9
Projected score
SA 114 · POR 112.7
Win probability
SA 54%
1st half
Spread
SA -0.9
Total
113.5
Projected score
SA 57.2 · POR 56.3
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenSA -4.5
no move
NowSA -4.5
No change since the open
Total
Open237.5
no move
Now237.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and current line · tap a dot
Opened SA -4.5 · unchangedmodel SA -1.5
model SA -1.5
Opened 237.5 · unchangedmodel 226.5
model 226.5
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% |
| PORlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 23 since 2021-22
SA 16–7 PORSA leads · 23 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 3 meetings · SA 15-8 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2025-26 | POR 95 @ SA 114 | SA -10.5 | SA W |
| Apr 26, 2025-26 | SA 114 @ POR 93 | POR +5.5 | SA W |
| Apr 24, 2025-26 | SA 120 @ POR 108 | POR +1.5 | SA W |
| Apr 21, 2025-26 | POR 106 @ SA 103 | SA -11.5 | POR W |
| Apr 19, 2025-26 | POR 98 @ SA 111 | SA -11.5 | SA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Spurs
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
OKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vs
HOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@
DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vs
SAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@
UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
31
vs
MIN
MINW 121-111
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
+1.5
over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Trail Blazers
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
PHX
PHXW 124-83
+37.5
23
@SAC
SACW 128-120
−1.5
27
@
LAL
LALW 136-129
+8.5
29
vs
MEM
MEML 103-124
−28.5
31
@UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
+15.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsPHX
PHXW 124-83
−25.5
23
@SAC
SACW 128-120
+16.5
27
@LAL
LALW 136-129
+30.5
29
vsMEM
MEML 103-124
−6.5
31
@UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
−30.5
over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Spurs has the better starters
Position by position: Spurs 3, Trail Blazers 0, even 2
SpursBetterTrail Blazers
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast
Score 98
=Even
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast
Score 89
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 53
←SASmall
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 34
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast
Score 84
=Even
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 82
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 69
←SASmall
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 44
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
←SASmall
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 74
SpursBetterTrail Blazers
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
←SASmall
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
=Even
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
←SABig
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
=Even
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
←SABig
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSA betterPOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
SpursGuards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
Trail BlazersGuards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
SA117.3 #12POR120.6 #4Points per possession
SA1.12 #10POR1.16 #5Pace (possessions)
SA104.3 #11POR103.5 #14Shooting
Effective FG%
SA53.3 #16POR56.2 #43-point %
SA34.9 #17POR35.3 #123-point attempt rate
SA39.0 #24POR51.5 #1Free throw rate
SA24.5 #24POR35.9 #3Possessions
Turnover rate
SA13.1 #2POR14.6 #9Offensive rebound rate
SA27.2 #16POR27.6 #14Assists per game
SA27.5 #9POR26.2 #17Defense
Points allowed
SA110.2 #12POR109.2 #10Points allowed per possession
SA1.06 #6POR1.06 #10Opponent effective FG%
SA52.1 #11POR51.3 #8Opponent 3-point %
SA37.3 #23POR32.1 #8Turnovers forced
SA15.7 #14POR14.8 #20Defensive rebound rate
SA75.8 #7POR77.3 #3Steals per game
SA9.2 #10POR8.6 #18Blocks per game
SA7.0 #1POR4.2 #21| SA | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 117.3 #12 | Points per game | 120.6 #4 |
| 1.12 #10 | Points per possession | 1.16 #5 |
| 104.3 #11 | Pace (possessions) | 103.5 #14 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.3 #16 | Effective FG% | 56.2 #4 |
| 34.9 #17 | 3-point % | 35.3 #12 |
| 39.0 #24 | 3-point attempt rate | 51.5 #1 |
| 24.5 #24 | Free throw rate | 35.9 #3 |
| Possessions | ||
| 13.1 #2 | Turnover rate | 14.6 #9 |
| 27.2 #16 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.6 #14 |
| 27.5 #9 | Assists per game | 26.2 #17 |
| Defense | ||
| 110.2 #12 | Points allowed | 109.2 #10 |
| 1.06 #6 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #10 |
| 52.1 #11 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.3 #8 |
| 37.3 #23 | Opponent 3-point % | 32.1 #8 |
| 15.7 #14 | Turnovers forced | 14.8 #20 |
| 75.8 #7 | Defensive rebound rate | 77.3 #3 |
| 9.2 #10 | Steals per game | 8.6 #18 |
| 7.0 #1 | Blocks per game | 4.2 #21 |
Spurs
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Timberwolves121–111
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
A week or more of rest.
Trail Blazers
4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Jazz112–90
- Lvs Grizzlies103–124
- W@ Lakers136–129
- W@ Kings128–120
- Wvs Suns124–83
A week or more of rest.