Frost Bank Center · at Spurs · Conference game
Line
SA -8.5no move
SA -8.5no moveTotal232.5no move
 LAL | This season | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 4-3 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 4-3 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SA 119–112 · win probability SA 70%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
SA -8.5
no move since the open
Total
232.5
model 231.2 · Under by 1.5
Model edge
LAL by 1
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: SA has more of the edges
LAL 2, SA 4 · 2026-27 so far
SABigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, SA 75.8%
SABigSA offense vs LAL defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings
SASmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, SA 13.1%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, SA 15.7%
LALSmallThree-pointers
LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 45.7% and 39.0% of their shots
LALSmallShooting
Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1
SASmallHome court
SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, LAL 2-1 away
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points
Even
LAL offense vs SA defense
Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Recent form
Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, SA 24.5. Allowed: LAL 30.7, SA 21.7
Context
Schedule so far
LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
How games like this went
NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites of 7 to 9.5 | 496 | 76% | 51% | 50% |
| Conference games at this spread | 518 | 78% | 52% | 51% |
| Games with a total of 230 to 234.5 | 744 | 72% | 52% | 48% |
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
MarketSA -8.5
ModelSA -7.5
Model edgeLAL +1.0
Total
Market232.5
Model231.2
Model edgeUnder 1.3
Projected score
LAL 111.8 · SA 119.4
Win probability
SA 70%
1st half
Spread
SA -4.1
Total
115.7
Projected score
LAL 55.8 · SA 59.9
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenSA -8.5
no move
NowSA -8.5
No change since the open
Total
Open232.5
no move
Now232.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and current line · tap a dot
Opened SA -8.5 · unchangedmodel SA -7.5
model SA -7.5
Opened 232.5 · unchangedmodel 231
model 231
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LALlast 7 | 5-2 71% | 4-3 57% | 4-3 57% |
| SAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22
LAL 12–7 SALAL leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 3 meetings · LAL 10-9 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2025-26 | SA 136 @ LAL 108 | LAL +13.5 | SA W |
| Jan 7, 2025-26 | LAL 91 @ SA 107 | SA -8.5 | SA W |
| Dec 10, 2025-26 | SA 132 @ LAL 119 | LAL -7.5 | SA W |
| Nov 5, 2025-26 | SA 116 @ LAL 118 | LAL +1.5 | LAL W |
| Mar 17, 2024-25 | SA 109 @ LAL 125 | LAL -8.5 | LAL W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Lakers
7 games played
Straight up
5-2
71% wins
Against the spread
4-3
57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21 | vs GS | W 127-105 | -6.5 | W +15.5 | 233.5 | U 232 |
| Oct 23 | vs LAC | W 125-117 | -8.5 | L −0.5 | 225.5 | O 242 |
| Oct 25 | @ UTAH | W 132-123 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 237.5 | O 255 |
| Oct 27 | vs POR | L 129-136 | -1.5 | L −8.5 | 234.5 | O 265 |
| Oct 28 | @LAC | W 103-87 | +1.5 | W +17.5 | 224.5 | U 190 |
| Oct 30 | @GS | L 95-112 | -2.5 | L −19.5 | 234.5 | U 207 |
| Nov 1 | vs TOR | W 131-125 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 224.5 | O 256 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vsGS
GSW 127-105
+15.5
23
vsLAC
LACW 125-117
−0.5
25
@UTAH
UTAHW 132-123
+2.5
27
vsPOR
PORL 129-136
−8.5
28
@LAC
LACW 103-87
+17.5
30
@GS
GSL 95-112
−19.5
1
vsTOR
TORW 131-125
+2.5
covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsGS
GSW 127-105
−1.5
23
vsLAC
LACW 125-117
+16.5
25
@UTAH
UTAHW 132-123
+17.5
27
vsPOR
PORL 129-136
+30.5
28
@LAC
LACW 103-87
−34.5
30
@GS
GSL 95-112
−27.5
1
vsTOR
TORW 131-125
+31.5
over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Spurs
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
OKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vs
HOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@
DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vs
SAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
31
vs
MIN
MINW 121-111
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
+1.5
over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Spurs has the better starters
Position by position: Lakers 1, Spurs 3, even 1
LakersBetterSpurs
G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast
Score 82
→SASmall
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast
Score 98
G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast
Score 79
←LALSmall
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 53
G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast
Score 50
→SASmall
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast
Score 84
F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast
Score 70
=Even
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 69
C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast
Score 42
→SABig
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
LakersBetterSpurs
LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2
=Even
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2
→SABig
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players
→SABig
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players
→SABig
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
Bench+6.7 · 5 players
→SABig
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestLAL betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
LakersGuards
A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min
Forwards
J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew
Centers
W. Kessler31 min
Out
Z. WilliamsOut
SpursGuards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
LAL120.3 #5SA117.3 #12Points per possession
LAL1.18 #2SA1.12 #10Pace (possessions)
LAL102.9 #17SA104.3 #11Shooting
Effective FG%
LAL60.1 #1SA53.3 #163-point %
LAL38.9 #4SA34.9 #173-point attempt rate
LAL45.7 #9SA39.0 #24Free throw rate
LAL37.2 #2SA24.5 #24Possessions
Turnover rate
LAL18.3 #28SA13.1 #2Offensive rebound rate
LAL26.8 #19SA27.2 #16Assists per game
LAL23.4 #27SA27.5 #9Defense
Points allowed
LAL115.0 #17SA110.2 #12Points allowed per possession
LAL1.11 #19SA1.06 #6Opponent effective FG%
LAL53.7 #17SA52.1 #11Opponent 3-point %
LAL36.7 #22SA37.3 #23Turnovers forced
LAL17.8 #4SA15.7 #14Defensive rebound rate
LAL67.4 #29SA75.8 #7Steals per game
LAL10.4 #4SA9.2 #10Blocks per game
LAL6.7 #3SA7.0 #1| LAL | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 120.3 #5 | Points per game | 117.3 #12 |
| 1.18 #2 | Points per possession | 1.12 #10 |
| 102.9 #17 | Pace (possessions) | 104.3 #11 |
| Shooting | ||
| 60.1 #1 | Effective FG% | 53.3 #16 |
| 38.9 #4 | 3-point % | 34.9 #17 |
| 45.7 #9 | 3-point attempt rate | 39.0 #24 |
| 37.2 #2 | Free throw rate | 24.5 #24 |
| Possessions | ||
| 18.3 #28 | Turnover rate | 13.1 #2 |
| 26.8 #19 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.2 #16 |
| 23.4 #27 | Assists per game | 27.5 #9 |
| Defense | ||
| 115.0 #17 | Points allowed | 110.2 #12 |
| 1.11 #19 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #6 |
| 53.7 #17 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.1 #11 |
| 36.7 #22 | Opponent 3-point % | 37.3 #23 |
| 17.8 #4 | Turnovers forced | 15.7 #14 |
| 67.4 #29 | Defensive rebound rate | 75.8 #7 |
| 10.4 #4 | Steals per game | 9.2 #10 |
| 6.7 #3 | Blocks per game | 7.0 #1 |
Lakers
5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Raptors131–125
- L@ Warriors95–112
- W@ Clippers103–87
- Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
- W@ Jazz132–123
A week or more of rest.
Spurs
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Timberwolves121–111
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
A week or more of rest.