San Antonio Spurs at Milwaukee Bucks: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 30, 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Bucks

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Spurs and Bucks
SA	This season	MIL
4-2	Record	1-5
2-4	ATS	2-4
2-4	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SA 122–107 · win probability SA 86%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

SA 5, MIL 1 · 2026-27 so far

SABig

SA offense vs MIL defense

Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

SABig

MIL offense vs SA defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings

SABig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SA 13.1%, MIL 15.8%. Forced: SA 15.7%, MIL 12.2%

SABig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SA 53.3 and allows 52.1; MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4

SASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SA 24.5, MIL 23.9. Allowed: SA 21.7, MIL 29.7

Context

Schedule so far

SA has played the 15th-hardest schedule, MIL the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

MILSmall

Home court

MIL at home. This season: MIL 1-3 at home, SA 2-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: SA plays 104.3 a game (11th fastest), MIL 106.2 (4th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%; MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 39.0% and 45.9% of their shots

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SA 27.2%, MIL 29.7%. Defensive: SA 75.8%, MIL 74.2%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0; MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SA 100%, MIL 100%. Transfers in: SA 0, MIL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SA LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: SA away; MIL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SA UUOUO	2-4	33%	4-2
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Spurs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	vs TOR	W110–107LU
Dec 13	vs LAC	W118–99WU
Dec 15	@ CLE	L101–113LU

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 2	vs NY	L98–127LO
Dec 12	@ MEM	W131–115WO
Dec 14	@ DAL	W123–99WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

SA 5–5 MILSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 3 meetings · SA 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 28, 2025-26	SA 127 @ MIL 95	MIL +17.5	SA W
Jan 15, 2025-26	MIL 101 @ SA 119	SA -7.5	SA W
Jan 31, 2024-25	MIL 118 @ SA 144	SA +2.5	SA W
Jan 8, 2024-25	SA 105 @ MIL 121	MIL -4.5	MIL W
Jan 4, 2023-24	MIL 125 @ SA 121	SA +11.5	SA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Spurs

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsOKC	L 104-116	+1.5	L −10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 23	vsHOU	L 110-114	-4.5	L −8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@DAL	W 122-106	-14.5	W +1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 27	vsSAC	W 130-103	-19.5	W +7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 28	@UTAH	W 117-111	-13.5	L −7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsMIN	W 121-111	-12.5	L −2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−10.5

HOU

L 110-114

−8.5

DAL

W 122-106

+1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+7.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−7.5

MIN

W 121-111

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−9.5

HOU

L 110-114

−0.5

DAL

W 122-106

−1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+0.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−4.5

MIN

W 121-111

+1.5

over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Spurs has the better starters

Position by position: Spurs 5, Bucks 0, even 0

SpursBetterBucks

G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98

SABig

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53

SABig

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84

SASmall

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69

SABig

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98

SABig

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

SpursBetterBucks

SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9

SABig

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7

SABig

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players

SABig

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player

SABig

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

Bench+19.9 · 5 players

SABig

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSA betterMIL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Spurs

Guards

D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min

Forwards

V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min

Centers

L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SA117.3 #12

MIL113.0 #17

Points per possession

SA1.12 #10

MIL1.07 #20

Pace (possessions)

SA104.3 #11

MIL106.2 #4

Shooting

Effective FG%

SA53.3 #16

MIL52.0 #21

3-point %

SA34.9 #17

MIL33.9 #21

3-point attempt rate

SA39.0 #24

MIL45.9 #8

Free throw rate

SA24.5 #24

MIL23.9 #25

Possessions

Turnover rate

SA13.1 #2

MIL15.8 #18

Offensive rebound rate

SA27.2 #16

MIL29.7 #8

Assists per game

SA27.5 #9

MIL26.0 #20

Defense

Points allowed

SA110.2 #12

MIL126.2 #28

Points allowed per possession

SA1.06 #6

MIL1.18 #28

Opponent effective FG%

SA52.1 #11

MIL55.4 #24

Opponent 3-point %

SA37.3 #23

MIL34.9 #14

Turnovers forced

SA15.7 #14

MIL12.2 #30

Defensive rebound rate

SA75.8 #7

MIL74.2 #10

Steals per game

SA9.2 #10

MIL5.7 #30

Blocks per game

SA7.0 #1

MIL4.0 #27

SA		MIL
Scoring
117.3 #12	Points per game	113.0 #17
1.12 #10	Points per possession	1.07 #20
104.3 #11	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #4
Shooting
53.3 #16	Effective FG%	52.0 #21
34.9 #17	3-point %	33.9 #21
39.0 #24	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #8
24.5 #24	Free throw rate	23.9 #25
Possessions
13.1 #2	Turnover rate	15.8 #18
27.2 #16	Offensive rebound rate	29.7 #8
27.5 #9	Assists per game	26.0 #20
Defense
110.2 #12	Points allowed	126.2 #28
1.06 #6	Points allowed per possession	1.18 #28
52.1 #11	Opponent effective FG%	55.4 #24
37.3 #23	Opponent 3-point %	34.9 #14
15.7 #14	Turnovers forced	12.2 #30
75.8 #7	Defensive rebound rate	74.2 #10
9.2 #10	Steals per game	5.7 #30
7.0 #1	Blocks per game	4.0 #27

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Timberwolves121–111
W@ Jazz117–111
Wvs Kings130–103
W@ Mavericks122–106
Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Spurs @ Bucks

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Spurs

Bucks

Spurs has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Spurs

Bucks