Rocket Arena · at Cavaliers
LineNo line yet
Total—
 SA | This season | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 3-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SA 116–114 · win probability SA 56%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 230.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges
SA 3, CLE 5 · 2026-27 so far
SABigSA offense vs CLE defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings
CLEBigThree-pointers
SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 39.0% and 43.6% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
SA has played the 15th-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less
SASmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: SA 13.1%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: SA 15.7%, CLE 14.1%
CLESmallCLE offense vs SA defense
Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
CLESmallFree throws
Free throw rate: SA 24.5, CLE 28.9. Allowed: SA 21.7, CLE 23.2
CLESmallHome court
CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, SA 2-0 away
CLESmallShooting
Effective FG%: SA 53.3 and allows 52.1; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5
SASmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SA 27.2%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: SA 75.8%, CLE 73.9%
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: SA plays 104.3 a game (11th fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Recent form
Last 5: SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SA 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: SA 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSA -2.1
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model230.2
Model edge—
Projected score
SA 116.2 · CLE 114
Win probability
SA 56%
1st half
Spread
SA -1.4
Total
115.2
Projected score
SA 58.3 · CLE 56.9
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% |
| CLElast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 3-3 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
SA 1–9 CLECLE leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CLE has won the last 7 meetings · SA 5-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025-26 | CLE 113 @ SA 101 | SA -3.5 | CLE W |
| Dec 5, 2025-26 | SA 117 @ CLE 130 | CLE -5.5 | CLE W |
| Apr 4, 2024-25 | CLE 114 @ SA 113 | SA +12.5 | SA W |
| Mar 27, 2024-25 | SA 116 @ CLE 124 | CLE -13.5 | SA W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | CLE 117 @ SA 101 | SA +10.5 | CLE W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Spurs
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
OKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vs
HOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@
DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vs
SAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@
UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
31
vs
MIN
MINW 121-111
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
+1.5
over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Cavaliers
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-3
50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
22
@
PHI
PHIL 106-114
−5.5
24
vs
BKN
BKNW 125-121
−7.5
26
vsMIN
MINW 127-125
−1.5
28
vs
WSH
WSHW 121-111
+0.5
29
@
ATL
ATLL 111-114
−1.5
31
@
MIL
MILW 136-111
+16.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
22
@PHI
PHIL 106-114
−17.5
24
vsBKN
BKNW 125-121
+17.5
26
vsMIN
MINW 127-125
+17.5
28
vsWSH
WSHW 121-111
−8.5
29
@ATL
ATLL 111-114
−12.5
31
@MIL
MILW 136-111
+12.5
over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Spurs has the better starters
Position by position: Spurs 2, Cavaliers 1, even 2
SpursBetterCavaliers
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast
Score 98
←SABig
G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast
Score 53
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 53
→CLESmall
G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 86
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast
Score 84
=Even
G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast
Score 90
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 69
←SABig
C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 30
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
=Even
C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 100
SpursBetterCavaliers
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
←SABig
CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
→CLESmall
CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
←SABig
Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
=Even
Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
←SABig
Bench+4.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSA betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
SpursGuards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
CavaliersGuards
J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min
Forwards
M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min
Centers
E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew
Out
P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
SA117.3 #12CLE121.0 #2Points per possession
SA1.12 #10CLE1.14 #7Pace (possessions)
SA104.3 #11CLE106.2 #3Shooting
Effective FG%
SA53.3 #16CLE55.3 #73-point %
SA34.9 #17CLE37.0 #83-point attempt rate
SA39.0 #24CLE43.6 #12Free throw rate
SA24.5 #24CLE28.9 #13Possessions
Turnover rate
SA13.1 #2CLE14.2 #6Offensive rebound rate
SA27.2 #16CLE26.7 #20Assists per game
SA27.5 #9CLE28.7 #4Defense
Points allowed
SA110.2 #12CLE116.0 #20Points allowed per possession
SA1.06 #6CLE1.09 #14Opponent effective FG%
SA52.1 #11CLE52.5 #12Opponent 3-point %
SA37.3 #23CLE33.7 #11Turnovers forced
SA15.7 #14CLE14.1 #25Defensive rebound rate
SA75.8 #7CLE73.9 #11Steals per game
SA9.2 #10CLE7.8 #22Blocks per game
SA7.0 #1CLE6.3 #6| SA | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 117.3 #12 | Points per game | 121.0 #2 |
| 1.12 #10 | Points per possession | 1.14 #7 |
| 104.3 #11 | Pace (possessions) | 106.2 #3 |
| Shooting | ||
| 53.3 #16 | Effective FG% | 55.3 #7 |
| 34.9 #17 | 3-point % | 37.0 #8 |
| 39.0 #24 | 3-point attempt rate | 43.6 #12 |
| 24.5 #24 | Free throw rate | 28.9 #13 |
| Possessions | ||
| 13.1 #2 | Turnover rate | 14.2 #6 |
| 27.2 #16 | Offensive rebound rate | 26.7 #20 |
| 27.5 #9 | Assists per game | 28.7 #4 |
| Defense | ||
| 110.2 #12 | Points allowed | 116.0 #20 |
| 1.06 #6 | Points allowed per possession | 1.09 #14 |
| 52.1 #11 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.5 #12 |
| 37.3 #23 | Opponent 3-point % | 33.7 #11 |
| 15.7 #14 | Turnovers forced | 14.1 #25 |
| 75.8 #7 | Defensive rebound rate | 73.9 #11 |
| 9.2 #10 | Steals per game | 7.8 #22 |
| 7.0 #1 | Blocks per game | 6.3 #6 |
Spurs
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Timberwolves121–111
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
A week or more of rest.
Cavaliers
4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Bucks136–111
- L@ Hawks111–114
- Wvs Wizards121–111
- Wvs Timberwolves127–125
- Wvs Nets125–121
A week or more of rest.