San Antonio Spurs at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 16, 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Spurs and Raptors
SA	This season	TOR
4-2	Record	3-3
2-4	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SA 114–111 · win probability SA 57%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

SA 4, TOR 3 · 2026-27 so far

SABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: SA 24.5, TOR 27.7. Allowed: SA 21.7, TOR 41.5

SASmall

TOR offense vs SA defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings

TORSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SA 13.1%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: SA 15.7%, TOR 20.8%

Context

Schedule so far

SA has played the 15th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

SASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SA 53.3 and allows 52.1; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, SA 2-0 away

SASmall

SA offense vs TOR defense

Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

TORSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SA 27.2%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: SA 75.8%, TOR 73.4%

Even

Three-pointers

SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 39.0% and 38.1% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: SA plays 104.3 a game (11th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SA 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: SA 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SA LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: SA away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SA UUOUO	2-4	33%	4-2
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Spurs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 18	vs CHI	W129–114LU
Dec 20	@ NO	L95–104LU
Dec 21	vs MIL	W127–95WU

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 18	vs GS	W145–127WO
Dec 20	vs HOU	L99–113LU
Dec 22	@ WSH	W112–102WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

SA 5–5 TORSeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · SA has won the last 5 meetings · SA 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 25, 2025-26	SA 110 @ TOR 107	TOR +5.5	TOR W
Oct 27, 2025-26	TOR 103 @ SA 121	SA -4.5	SA W
Apr 13, 2024-25	TOR 118 @ SA 125	SA -4.5	SA W
Mar 23, 2024-25	SA 123 @ TOR 89	TOR -0.5	SA W
Feb 12, 2023-24	SA 122 @ TOR 99	TOR -5.5	SA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Spurs

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsOKC	L 104-116	+1.5	L −10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 23	vsHOU	L 110-114	-4.5	L −8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@DAL	W 122-106	-14.5	W +1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 27	vsSAC	W 130-103	-19.5	W +7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 28	@UTAH	W 117-111	-13.5	L −7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsMIN	W 121-111	-12.5	L −2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−10.5

HOU

L 110-114

−8.5

DAL

W 122-106

+1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+7.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−7.5

MIN

W 121-111

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−9.5

HOU

L 110-114

−0.5

DAL

W 122-106

−1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+0.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−4.5

MIN

W 121-111

+1.5

over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Spurs has the better starters

Position by position: Spurs 3, Raptors 1, even 1

SpursBetterRaptors

G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98

SABig

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53

Even

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84

SASmall

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69

TORSmall

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98

SABig

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

SpursBetterRaptors

SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9

Even

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7

SASmall

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players

SABig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player

TORSmall

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench+19.9 · 5 players

SABig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSA betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Spurs

Guards

D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min

Forwards

V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min

Centers

L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SA117.3 #12

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

SA1.12 #10

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

SA104.3 #11

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

SA53.3 #16

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

SA34.9 #17

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

SA39.0 #24

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

SA24.5 #24

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

SA13.1 #2

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

SA27.2 #16

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

SA27.5 #9

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

SA110.2 #12

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

SA1.06 #6

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

SA52.1 #11

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

SA37.3 #23

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

SA15.7 #14

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

SA75.8 #7

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

SA9.2 #10

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

SA7.0 #1

TOR4.3 #19

SA		TOR
Scoring
117.3 #12	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.12 #10	Points per possession	1.11 #13
104.3 #11	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
53.3 #16	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
34.9 #17	3-point %	32.0 #24
39.0 #24	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
24.5 #24	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
13.1 #2	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
27.2 #16	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
27.5 #9	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
110.2 #12	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.06 #6	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
52.1 #11	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
37.3 #23	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
15.7 #14	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
75.8 #7	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
9.2 #10	Steals per game	12.7 #2
7.0 #1	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Timberwolves121–111
W@ Jazz117–111
Wvs Kings130–103
W@ Mavericks122–106
Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Spurs @ Raptors

What could decide it: SA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Spurs

Raptors

Spurs has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Spurs

Raptors