Utah Jazz at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 16, 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Jazz and Bulls
UTAH	This season	CHI
1-5	Record	1-5
1-5	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UTAH 121–121 · win probability UTAH 51%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 241.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CHI has more of the edges

UTAH 3, CHI 5 · 2026-27 so far

CHIBig

CHI offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

UTAHBig

UTAH offense vs CHI defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

UTAH has played the 4th-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UTAHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

CHISmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: UTAH 17.0%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, CHI 14.7%

CHISmall

Recent form

Last 5: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

CHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: UTAH 31.6, CHI 38.3. Allowed: UTAH 33.8, CHI 33.5

Context

Tempo

About 107 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

UTAHSmall

Three-pointers

UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 41.7% and 47.9% of their shots

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, UTAH 0-1 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 25.7%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: UTAH 77.1%, CHI 69.8%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-1	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: UTAH away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 18	@ BOS	L119–129LO
Dec 20	@ CLE	L113–122WU
Dec 23	@ NY	L117–134LO

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 18	@ SA	L114–129WU
Dec 19	@ DAL	L128–149LO
Dec 21	@ MIA	L91–134LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

UTAH 3–7 CHICHI leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · UTAH 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 14, 2025-26	UTAH 126 @ CHI 128	CHI -5.5	UTAH W
Nov 16, 2025-26	CHI 147 @ UTAH 150	UTAH +4.5	UTAH W
Mar 17, 2024-25	CHI 111 @ UTAH 97	UTAH +4.5	CHI W
Nov 4, 2024-25	UTAH 135 @ CHI 126	CHI +7.5	UTAH W
Mar 6, 2023-24	CHI 119 @ UTAH 117	UTAH +4.5	UTAH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Jazz 2, Bulls 2, even 1

JazzBetterBulls

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

CHIBig

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

CHISmall

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

Even

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

UTAHBig

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

UTAHSmall

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

JazzBetterBulls

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

UTAHSmall

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

CHIBig

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

CHIBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

UTAHBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

UTAHBig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestUTAH betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

UTAH

CHI

Scoring

108.7Points per game113.5

1.05Points per possession1.04

104.0Pace (possessions)109.8

Shooting

51.0Effective FG%48.2

32.63-point %28.1

41.73-point attempt rate47.9

31.6Free throw rate38.3

Possessions

17.0Turnover rate16.2

25.7Offensive rebound rate29.2

26.2Assists per game24.3

Defense

118.8Points allowed129.3

1.14Points allowed per possession1.17

53.9Opponent effective FG%56.0

37.6Opponent 3-point %39.3

13.3Turnovers forced14.7

77.1Defensive rebound rate69.8

6.2Steals per game8.7

6.5Blocks per game5.0

UTAH		CHI
Scoring
108.7 #24	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.05 #25	Points per possession	1.04 #26
104.0 #12	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
51.0 #24	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
32.6 #23	3-point %	28.1 #30
41.7 #21	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
31.6 #10	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
17.0 #25	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
25.7 #22	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
26.2 #19	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
118.8 #25	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.14 #25	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
53.9 #18	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
37.6 #25	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
13.3 #28	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
77.1 #4	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
6.2 #29	Steals per game	8.7 #17
6.5 #5	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Jazz @ Bulls

What could decide it: CHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Jazz

Bulls

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Jazz

Bulls