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NBA · Wed, Dec 16

Heat @ Grizzlies

FedExForum · at Grizzlies
#18MIAHeat
@
#12MEMGrizzlies
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MIAThis seasonMEM
2-4Record6-0
2-4ATS6-0
3-3O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MEM 119–118 · win probability MEM 54%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 237.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

MIA 3, MEM 6 · 2026-27 so far
MEMBig
Three-pointers
MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 41.7% and 42.1% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, MEM the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MEMBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2
MEMBig
MEM offense vs MIA defense
Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings
MEMBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, MEM 30.6%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, MEM 75.0%
MIABig
MIA offense vs MEM defense
Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
MIABig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, MEM 25.3. Allowed: MIA 23.2, MEM 31.4
MEMBig
Recent form
Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2
MEMSmall
Home court
MEM at home. This season: MEM 2-0 at home, MIA 1-1 away
MIASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, MEM 15.4%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, MEM 15.7%
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), MEM 103.6 (13th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, MEM 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, MEM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMEM -1.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model237.4
Model edge—
Projected score
MIA 118.1 · MEM 119.4
Win probability
MEM 54%
1st half
Spread
MEM -0.6
Total
118.5
Projected score
MIA 59 · MEM 59.6
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Heat 1, Grizzlies 4, even 0
HeatBetterGrizzlies
G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48
MEMBig
G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97
G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20
MEMBig
F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87
F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89
MIABig
F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33
F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62
MEMSmall
F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85
C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66
MEMSmall
C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92
HeatBetterGrizzlies
MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9
MIABig
MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1
MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2
MEMBig
MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3
Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players
MEMBig
Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player
Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players
MEMBig
Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
MIABig
Bench-18.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMIA betterMEM betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Heat
Guards
D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min
Forwards
G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min
Centers
B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min
Out
T. HardawayDay-To-Day
Grizzlies
Guards
T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min
Forwards
C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min
Centers
Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min
Out
S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
MIAMEM
Scoring
118.3Points per game121.2
1.11Points per possession1.16
106.2Pace (possessions)103.6
Shooting
54.6Effective FG%55.9
34.13-point %41.7
41.73-point attempt rate42.1
27.3Free throw rate25.3
Possessions
14.1Turnover rate15.4
24.5Offensive rebound rate30.6
28.8Assists per game27.0
Defense
121.5Points allowed106.0
1.15Points allowed per possession1.03
56.8Opponent effective FG%49.2
40.6Opponent 3-point %30.0
15.4Turnovers forced15.7
72.3Defensive rebound rate75.0
8.3Steals per game6.3
5.0Blocks per game5.2
MIAMEM
Scoring
118.3 #9Points per game121.2 #1
1.11 #14Points per possession1.16 #4
106.2 #5Pace (possessions)103.6 #13
Shooting
54.6 #12Effective FG%55.9 #5
34.1 #193-point %41.7 #1
41.7 #203-point attempt rate42.1 #19
27.3 #19Free throw rate25.3 #22
Possessions
14.1 #5Turnover rate15.4 #16
24.5 #24Offensive rebound rate30.6 #5
28.8 #3Assists per game27.0 #13
Defense
121.5 #26Points allowed106.0 #3
1.15 #26Points allowed per possession1.03 #2
56.8 #27Opponent effective FG%49.2 #3
40.6 #29Opponent 3-point %30.0 #3
15.4 #18Turnovers forced15.7 #15
72.3 #17Defensive rebound rate75.0 #9
8.3 #19Steals per game6.3 #28
5.0 #13Blocks per game5.2 #11
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Pacers145–125
  • W@ Hawks129–117
  • Lvs Mavericks109–113
  • L@ Hornets110–115
  • Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Kings136–105
  • W@ Trail Blazers124–103
  • W@ Jazz110–105
  • W@ Kings123–112
  • W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.