Phoenix Suns at Memphis Grizzlies: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 20, 4:00 PM ETFedExForum · at Grizzlies · Conference game

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Suns and Grizzlies
PHX	This season	MEM
1-3	Record	6-0
0-4	ATS	6-0
3-1	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MEM 117–114 · win probability MEM 60%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

PHX 1, MEM 7 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, MEM the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MEMBig

Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%; MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 45.1% and 42.1% of their shots

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7; MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2

MEMBig

Recent form

Last 4: PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5; MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2

MEMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 28.3%, MEM 30.6%. Defensive: PHX 65.1%, MEM 75.0%

MEMBig

MEM offense vs PHX defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: PHX plays 101.3 a game (26th fastest), MEM 103.6 (13th). Faster games mean more points

MEMSmall

PHX offense vs MEM defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

PHXSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.2%, MEM 15.4%. Forced: PHX 17.1%, MEM 15.7%

MEMSmall

Home court

MEM at home. This season: MEM 2-0 at home, PHX 0-2 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 22.8, MEM 25.3. Allowed: PHX 31.1, MEM 31.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, MEM 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, MEM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	2-0	—

Venue/role: PHX away; MEM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 21	@ MIN	L104–116LU
Dec 23	vs IND	W123–108WO
Dec 26	@ DAL	W112–107LU

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 21	@ NO	L106–114LU
Dec 23	vs TOR	L96–128LU
Dec 26	@ LAC	L120–123WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 17 since 2021-22

PHX 7–10 MEMMEM leads · 17 games since 2021-22 · PHX has won the last 2 meetings · PHX 9-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 30, 2025-26	PHX 131 @ MEM 105	MEM +12.5	PHX W
Jan 7, 2025-26	PHX 117 @ MEM 98	MEM +5.5	PHX W
Oct 29, 2025-26	MEM 114 @ PHX 113	PHX +2.5	PHX W
Mar 10, 2024-25	PHX 118 @ MEM 120	MEM -2.5	PHX W
Feb 25, 2024-25	PHX 148 @ MEM 151	MEM -6.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Suns 0, Grizzlies 4, even 1

SunsBetterGrizzlies

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

Even

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

MEMBig

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

MEMSmall

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

MEMSmall

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

MEMBig

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

SunsBetterGrizzlies

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

MEMSmall

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

MEMSmall

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

MEMBig

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterMEM betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHX112.0 #19

MEM121.2 #1

Points per possession

PHX1.12 #12

MEM1.16 #4

Pace (possessions)

PHX101.3 #26

MEM103.6 #13

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHX54.4 #13

MEM55.9 #5

3-point %

PHX35.0 #16

MEM41.7 #1

3-point attempt rate

PHX45.1 #10

MEM42.1 #19

Free throw rate

PHX22.8 #27

MEM25.3 #22

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHX15.2 #15

MEM15.4 #16

Offensive rebound rate

PHX28.3 #11

MEM30.6 #5

Assists per game

PHX27.5 #8

MEM27.0 #13

Defense

Points allowed

PHX124.5 #27

MEM106.0 #3

Points allowed per possession

PHX1.21 #30

MEM1.03 #2

Opponent effective FG%

PHX58.7 #29

MEM49.2 #3

Opponent 3-point %

PHX43.9 #30

MEM30.0 #3

Turnovers forced

PHX17.1 #7

MEM15.7 #15

Defensive rebound rate

PHX65.1 #30

MEM75.0 #9

Steals per game

PHX9.0 #15

MEM6.3 #28

Blocks per game

PHX5.3 #10

MEM5.2 #11

PHX		MEM
Scoring
112.0 #19	Points per game	121.2 #1
1.12 #12	Points per possession	1.16 #4
101.3 #26	Pace (possessions)	103.6 #13
Shooting
54.4 #13	Effective FG%	55.9 #5
35.0 #16	3-point %	41.7 #1
45.1 #10	3-point attempt rate	42.1 #19
22.8 #27	Free throw rate	25.3 #22
Possessions
15.2 #15	Turnover rate	15.4 #16
28.3 #11	Offensive rebound rate	30.6 #5
27.5 #8	Assists per game	27.0 #13
Defense
124.5 #27	Points allowed	106.0 #3
1.21 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #2
58.7 #29	Opponent effective FG%	49.2 #3
43.9 #30	Opponent 3-point %	30.0 #3
17.1 #7	Turnovers forced	15.7 #15
65.1 #30	Defensive rebound rate	75.0 #9
9.0 #15	Steals per game	6.3 #28
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	5.2 #11

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Suns @ Grizzlies

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

Grizzlies

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

Grizzlies