Indiana Pacers at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 23, 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pacers and Suns
IND	This season	PHX
2-5	Record	1-3
3-4	ATS	0-4
3-4	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHX 118–112 · win probability PHX 66%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

IND 4, PHX 2 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHXSmall

PHX offense vs IND defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

INDSmall

Recent form

Last 4: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

INDSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: IND 31.2, PHX 22.8. Allowed: IND 32.1, PHX 31.1

INDSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, IND 2-2 away

INDSmall

Three-pointers

IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 43.1% and 45.1% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: IND 14.9%, PHX 17.1%

Even

IND offense vs PHX defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, PHX 65.1%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: IND away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 26	@ UTAH	L122–131LO
Dec 27	@ DEN	L120–135LO
Dec 29	vs LAC	L113–114WU

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 26	@ DAL	W112–107LU
Dec 28	vs GS	W131–122LO
Dec 30	vs PHI	L103–109LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

IND 3–7 PHXPHX leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHX has won the last 2 meetings · IND 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 12, 2025-26	PHX 123 @ IND 108	IND +9.5	PHX W
Nov 13, 2025-26	IND 98 @ PHX 133	PHX -3.5	PHX W
Jan 4, 2024-25	PHX 108 @ IND 126	IND -2.5	IND W
Dec 19, 2024-25	IND 120 @ PHX 111	PHX -6.5	IND W
Jan 26, 2023-24	PHX 131 @ IND 133	IND +5	IND W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pacers has the better starters

Position by position: Pacers 3, Suns 1, even 1

PacersBetterSuns

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

PHXSmall

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

INDSmall

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

INDBig

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

INDSmall

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

Even

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

PacersBetterSuns

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Even

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

PHXSmall

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

INDBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestIND betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IND112.9 #18

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

IND1.10 #17

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

IND103.1 #15

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

IND53.9 #14

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

IND34.1 #18

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

IND43.1 #15

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

IND31.2 #12

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

IND14.8 #10

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

IND23.1 #27

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

IND28.0 #7

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

IND116.7 #23

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

IND1.13 #23

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

IND53.9 #19

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

IND35.9 #20

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

IND14.9 #19

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

IND72.7 #16

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

IND6.9 #27

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

IND4.0 #26

PHX5.3 #10

IND		PHX
Scoring
112.9 #18	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.10 #17	Points per possession	1.12 #12
103.1 #15	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
53.9 #14	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
34.1 #18	3-point %	35.0 #16
43.1 #15	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
31.2 #12	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
14.8 #10	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
23.1 #27	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
28.0 #7	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
116.7 #23	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.13 #23	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
53.9 #19	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
35.9 #20	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
14.9 #19	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
72.7 #16	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
6.9 #27	Steals per game	9.0 #15
4.0 #26	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Pacers @ Suns

What could decide it: IND has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pacers

Suns

Pacers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pacers

Suns