Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 27, 8:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pacers and Nuggets
IND	This season	DEN
2-5	Record	3-2
3-4	ATS	2-3
3-4	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 122–112 · win probability DEN 77%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

IND 0, DEN 5 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

DEN offense vs IND defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: IND 31.2, DEN 31.3. Allowed: IND 32.1, DEN 21.5

Context

Schedule so far

IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENSmall

Three-pointers

IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 43.1% and 40.9% of their shots

DENSmall

IND offense vs DEN defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, IND 2-2 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, DEN 70.5%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: IND 14.9%, DEN 15.9%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

Even

Recent form

Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: IND away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 29	vs LAC	L113–114WU
Dec 31	vs ORL	W128–126WO
Jan 2	vs MIN	L104–124LU

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 28	vs MIN	L98–110
Dec 31	@ MIN	L98–110
Jan 2	vs NY	L103–142LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

IND 1–9 DENDEN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings · IND 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 3, 2025-26	DEN 135 @ IND 120	IND +8.5	DEN W
Nov 8, 2025-26	IND 100 @ DEN 117	DEN -9.5	DEN W
Apr 6, 2024-25	IND 125 @ DEN 120	DEN -6.5	IND W
Feb 24, 2024-25	DEN 125 @ IND 116	IND +3.5	DEN W
Jan 23, 2023-24	DEN 114 @ IND 109	IND +4.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Pacers 1, Nuggets 3, even 1

PacersBetterNuggets

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

INDSmall

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

DENSmall

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

Even

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

DENSmall

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

DENBig

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

PacersBetterNuggets

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

DENSmall

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

DENBig

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

INDSmall

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

DENBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestIND betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IND112.9 #18

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

IND1.10 #17

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

IND103.1 #15

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

IND53.9 #14

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

IND34.1 #18

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

IND43.1 #15

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

IND31.2 #12

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

IND14.8 #10

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

IND23.1 #27

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

IND28.0 #7

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

IND116.7 #23

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

IND1.13 #23

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

IND53.9 #19

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

IND35.9 #20

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

IND14.9 #19

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

IND72.7 #16

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

IND6.9 #27

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

IND4.0 #26

DEN4.4 #18

IND		DEN
Scoring
112.9 #18	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.10 #17	Points per possession	1.13 #9
103.1 #15	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
53.9 #14	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
34.1 #18	3-point %	37.4 #7
43.1 #15	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
31.2 #12	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
14.8 #10	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
23.1 #27	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
28.0 #7	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
116.7 #23	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.13 #23	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
53.9 #19	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
35.9 #20	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
14.9 #19	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
72.7 #16	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
6.9 #27	Steals per game	10.2 #5
4.0 #26	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Pacers @ Nuggets

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pacers

Nuggets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pacers

Nuggets