New York Knicks at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 2, 5:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Knicks and Nuggets
NY	This season	DEN
2-4	Record	3-2
1-5	ATS	2-3
1-5	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 113–112 · win probability NY 52%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

NY 2, DEN 6 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NY 30.3%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: NY 78.7%, DEN 70.5%

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: NY 24.5, DEN 31.3. Allowed: NY 25.9, DEN 21.5

DENSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NY 15.2%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: NY 13.2%, DEN 15.9%

NYSmall

DEN offense vs NY defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

DENSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NY 49.5 and allows 53.1; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

Context

Schedule so far

NY has played the 13th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENSmall

Three-pointers

NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 43.2% and 40.9% of their shots

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, NY 1-2 away

DENSmall

NY offense vs DEN defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: NY plays 101.0 a game (28th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NY 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: NY 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-3	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: NY away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 4	@ POR	W127–97WO
Jan 6	@ GS	W110–107LU
Jan 8	@ SAC	W103–87WU

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	vs DET	L121–124WO
Jan 5	vs PHX	W127–120WO
Jan 7	@ CHA	L87–110LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

NY 7–3 DENNY leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · NY has won the last 4 meetings · NY 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 6, 2025-26	NY 142 @ DEN 103	DEN -1.5	NY W
Feb 4, 2025-26	DEN 127 @ NY 134	NY -4.5	NY W
Jan 29, 2024-25	DEN 112 @ NY 122	NY -2.5	NY W
Nov 25, 2024-25	NY 145 @ DEN 118	DEN -2.5	NY W
Mar 21, 2023-24	NY 100 @ DEN 113	DEN -9.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Knicks 2, Nuggets 1, even 2

KnicksBetterNuggets

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

NYBig

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

NYSmall

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

Even

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

DENSmall

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

Even

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

KnicksBetterNuggets

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Even

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

NYSmall

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNY betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NY107.0 #27

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

NY1.05 #24

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

NY101.0 #28

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

NY49.5 #27

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

NY35.2 #13

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

NY43.2 #14

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

NY24.5 #23

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

NY15.2 #14

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

NY30.3 #6

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

NY26.2 #18

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

NY107.7 #6

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

NY1.07 #12

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

NY53.1 #14

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

NY35.5 #18

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

NY13.2 #29

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

NY78.7 #1

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

NY7.3 #23

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

NY4.0 #28

DEN4.4 #18

NY		DEN
Scoring
107.0 #27	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.05 #24	Points per possession	1.13 #9
101.0 #28	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
49.5 #27	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
35.2 #13	3-point %	37.4 #7
43.2 #14	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
24.5 #23	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
15.2 #14	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
30.3 #6	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
26.2 #18	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
107.7 #6	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.07 #12	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
53.1 #14	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
35.5 #18	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
13.2 #29	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
78.7 #1	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
7.3 #23	Steals per game	10.2 #5
4.0 #28	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Knicks @ Nuggets

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Knicks

Nuggets

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Knicks

Nuggets