Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 5, 10:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets · Conference game

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Suns and Nuggets
PHX	This season	DEN
1-3	Record	3-2
0-4	ATS	2-3
3-1	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 120–113 · win probability DEN 68%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

PHX 1, DEN 6 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 22.8, DEN 31.3. Allowed: PHX 31.1, DEN 21.5

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENBig

DEN offense vs PHX defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 45.1% and 40.9% of their shots

DENSmall

Recent form

Last 4: PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

DENSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

PHXSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.2%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: PHX 17.1%, DEN 15.9%

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, PHX 0-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: PHX plays 101.3 a game (26th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 28.3%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: PHX 65.1%, DEN 70.5%

Even

PHX offense vs DEN defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: PHX away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 8	@ DAL	W112–107LU
Jan 10	vs CHI	W120–110LU
Jan 13	@ TOR	W120–98WU

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 7	@ CHA	L87–110LU
Jan 9	@ CLE	L117–119LU
Jan 11	@ NY	L103–142LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 24 since 2021-22

PHX 9–15 DENDEN leads · 24 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 6 meetings · PHX 10-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 30, 2026-27	DEN 127 @ PHX 120	PHX +4.5	DEN W
Mar 24, 2025-26	DEN 125 @ PHX 123	PHX +5.5	PHX W
Nov 29, 2025-26	DEN 130 @ PHX 112	PHX +3.5	DEN W
Oct 25, 2025-26	PHX 111 @ DEN 133	DEN -12.5	DEN W
Mar 7, 2024-25	PHX 141 @ DEN 149	DEN -8.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Suns 1, Nuggets 4, even 0

SunsBetterNuggets

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

PHXBig

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

DENBig

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

DENBig

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

DENBig

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

DENBig

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

SunsBetterNuggets

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Even

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

DENBig

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

PHXSmall

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHX112.0 #19

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

PHX1.12 #12

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

PHX101.3 #26

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHX54.4 #13

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

PHX35.0 #16

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

PHX45.1 #10

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

PHX22.8 #27

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHX15.2 #15

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

PHX28.3 #11

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

PHX27.5 #8

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

PHX124.5 #27

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

PHX1.21 #30

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

PHX58.7 #29

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

PHX43.9 #30

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

PHX17.1 #7

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

PHX65.1 #30

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

PHX9.0 #15

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

PHX5.3 #10

DEN4.4 #18

PHX		DEN
Scoring
112.0 #19	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.12 #12	Points per possession	1.13 #9
101.3 #26	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
54.4 #13	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
35.0 #16	3-point %	37.4 #7
45.1 #10	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
22.8 #27	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
15.2 #15	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
28.3 #11	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
27.5 #8	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
124.5 #27	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.21 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
58.7 #29	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
43.9 #30	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
17.1 #7	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
65.1 #30	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
9.0 #15	Steals per game	10.2 #5
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Suns @ Nuggets

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

Nuggets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

Nuggets