Denver Nuggets at Cleveland Cavaliers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 9, 5:00 PM ETRocket Arena · at Cavaliers

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Cavaliers
DEN	This season	CLE
3-2	Record	4-2
2-3	ATS	2-4
3-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 120–116 · win probability CLE 62%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

DEN 1, CLE 3 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

CLE offense vs DEN defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

DEN offense vs CLE defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), CLE 106.2 (3rd). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, CLE the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less

CLESmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5

CLESmall

Home court

CLE at home. This season: CLE 3-0 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, CLE 26.7%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, CLE 73.9%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, CLE 28.9. Allowed: DEN 21.5, CLE 23.2

Even

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%. Threes are 40.9% and 43.6% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, CLE 14.2%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, CLE 14.1%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, CLE 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, CLE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: DEN away; CLE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 11	@ NY	L103–142LO
Jan 12	@ MIL	W102–100WU
Jan 14	vs MEM	W136–119LO

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 11	@ MIN	W127–125LO
Jan 13	@ ATL	L111–114LU
Jan 15	@ MIL	W136–111WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

DEN 3–7 CLECLE leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CLE has won the last 4 meetings · DEN 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 9, 2025-26	CLE 119 @ DEN 117	DEN -2.5	CLE W
Jan 2, 2025-26	DEN 108 @ CLE 113	CLE -13.5	DEN W
Dec 27, 2024-25	CLE 149 @ DEN 135	DEN +3.5	CLE W
Dec 5, 2024-25	DEN 114 @ CLE 126	CLE -3.5	CLE W
Mar 31, 2023-24	CLE 101 @ DEN 130	DEN -4.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 1, Cavaliers 2, even 2

NuggetsBetterCavaliers

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

Even

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

CLESmall

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

CLESmall

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

DENBig

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

Even

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

NuggetsBetterCavaliers

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

DENBig

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

CLEBig

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterCLE betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

CLE121.0 #2

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

CLE1.14 #7

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

CLE106.2 #3

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

CLE55.3 #7

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

CLE37.0 #8

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

CLE43.6 #12

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

CLE28.9 #13

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

CLE14.2 #6

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

CLE26.7 #20

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

CLE28.7 #4

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

CLE116.0 #20

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

CLE1.09 #14

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

CLE52.5 #12

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

CLE33.7 #11

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

CLE14.1 #25

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

CLE73.9 #11

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

CLE7.8 #22

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

CLE6.3 #6

DEN		CLE
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	121.0 #2
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.14 #7
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #3
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	55.3 #7
37.4 #7	3-point %	37.0 #8
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	43.6 #12
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	28.9 #13
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	14.2 #6
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	26.7 #20
26.8 #14	Assists per game	28.7 #4
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	116.0 #20
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #14
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	52.5 #12
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	33.7 #11
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	14.1 #25
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	73.9 #11
10.2 #5	Steals per game	7.8 #22
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	6.3 #6

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Cavaliers

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Cavaliers

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Cavaliers