Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 12, 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Bucks

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Bucks
DEN	This season	MIL
3-2	Record	1-5
2-3	ATS	2-4
3-2	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 122–113 · win probability DEN 72%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

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model 235.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

DEN 6, MIL 2 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

DEN offense vs MIL defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, MIL 23.9. Allowed: DEN 21.5, MIL 29.7

MILBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, MIL 29.7%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, MIL 74.2%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), MIL 106.2 (4th). Faster games mean more points

DENSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, MIL 15.8%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, MIL 12.2%

DENSmall

MIL offense vs DEN defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4

DENSmall

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 40.9% and 45.9% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, MIL the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

MILSmall

Home court

MIL at home. This season: MIL 1-3 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, MIL 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, MIL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	—

Venue/role: DEN away; MIL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 14	vs MEM	W136–119LO
Jan 16	vs CHA	L87–110LU
Jan 17	vs ORL	L126–127LO

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 13	@ IND	W110–102WU
Jan 15	vs CLE	L111–136LO
Jan 17	@ LAL	W105–101WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

DEN 6–4 MILDEN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 3 meetings · DEN 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 23, 2025-26	DEN 102 @ MIL 100	MIL -8.5	DEN W
Jan 11, 2025-26	MIL 104 @ DEN 108	DEN +6.5	DEN W
Mar 26, 2024-25	MIL 117 @ DEN 127	DEN -11.5	MIL W
Feb 27, 2024-25	DEN 112 @ MIL 121	MIL +3.5	MIL W
Feb 12, 2023-24	DEN 95 @ MIL 112	MIL -1.5	MIL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 5, Bucks 0, even 0

NuggetsBetterBucks

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

DENSmall

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

DENBig

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

DENSmall

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

DENBig

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

DENSmall

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

NuggetsBetterBucks

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

DENBig

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

DENSmall

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

DENBig

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

MILBig

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterMIL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

MIL113.0 #17

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

MIL1.07 #20

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

MIL106.2 #4

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

MIL52.0 #21

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

MIL33.9 #21

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

MIL45.9 #8

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

MIL23.9 #25

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

MIL15.8 #18

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

MIL29.7 #8

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

MIL26.0 #20

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

MIL126.2 #28

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

MIL1.18 #28

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

MIL55.4 #24

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

MIL34.9 #14

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

MIL12.2 #30

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

MIL74.2 #10

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

MIL5.7 #30

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

MIL4.0 #27

DEN		MIL
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	113.0 #17
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.07 #20
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	106.2 #4
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	52.0 #21
37.4 #7	3-point %	33.9 #21
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #8
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	23.9 #25
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	15.8 #18
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	29.7 #8
26.8 #14	Assists per game	26.0 #20
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	126.2 #28
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.18 #28
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	55.4 #24
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	34.9 #14
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	12.2 #30
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	74.2 #10
10.2 #5	Steals per game	5.7 #30
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	4.0 #27

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Bucks

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Bucks

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Bucks