Charlotte Hornets at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 16, 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Nuggets
CHA	This season	DEN
3-4	Record	3-2
3-4	ATS	2-3
1-6	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 114–108 · win probability DEN 68%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 221.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

CHA 1, DEN 6 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, DEN 31.3. Allowed: CHA 28.4, DEN 21.5

DENBig

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 50.8% and 40.9% of their shots

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, DEN 70.5%

DENBig

CHA offense vs DEN defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, DEN 15.9%

DENSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

DEN offense vs CHA defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: CHA away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 19	@ DAL	W117–90WU
Jan 22	vs HOU	L101–105WU
Jan 23	@ BOS	L102–113LU

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 17	vs ORL	L126–127LO
Jan 19	vs UTAH	W130–117LU
Jan 21	vs WSH	W107–97WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHA 2–8 DENDEN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHA 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 18, 2025-26	CHA 110 @ DEN 87	DEN +2.5	CHA W
Dec 7, 2025-26	DEN 115 @ CHA 106	CHA +10.5	CHA W
Feb 20, 2024-25	CHA 115 @ DEN 129	DEN -18.5	CHA W
Feb 1, 2024-25	DEN 107 @ CHA 104	CHA +12.5	CHA W
Jan 1, 2023-24	CHA 93 @ DEN 111	DEN -17.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 0, Nuggets 3, even 2

HornetsBetterNuggets

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

DENSmall

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

Even

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

Even

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

DENSmall

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

DENBig

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

HornetsBetterNuggets

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

DENBig

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

Even

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

DENBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

DEN4.4 #18

CHA		DEN
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	114.0 #15
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.13 #9
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
29.6 #28	3-point %	37.4 #7
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
21.6 #30	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
7.1 #25	Steals per game	10.2 #5
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Nuggets

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Nuggets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Nuggets