Washington Wizards at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 21, 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Nuggets
WSH	This season	DEN
3-3	Record	3-2
3-3	ATS	2-3
1-5	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 122–112 · win probability DEN 74%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

WSH 1, DEN 5 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

DEN offense vs WSH defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, DEN 70.5%

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

DENSmall

WSH offense vs DEN defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

WSHSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, WSH 1-2 away

DENSmall

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 37.6% and 40.9% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, DEN 31.3. Allowed: WSH 21.8, DEN 21.5

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, DEN 15.9%

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: WSH away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 22	@ LAC	L106–110WU
Jan 24	@ LAL	L101–120LU
Jan 26	@ POR	L88–123LU

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 23	vs MIL	W102–100WU
Jan 25	vs SAC	W136–105WO
Jan 27	@ MIN	L98–110

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

WSH 2–8 DENDEN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings · WSH 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 22, 2025-26	DEN 107 @ WSH 97	WSH +6.5	DEN W
Jan 17, 2025-26	WSH 115 @ DEN 121	DEN -10.5	WSH W
Mar 15, 2024-25	WSH 126 @ DEN 123	DEN -12.5	WSH W
Dec 7, 2024-25	DEN 113 @ WSH 122	WSH +11.5	WSH W
Feb 22, 2023-24	WSH 110 @ DEN 130	DEN -15.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 0, Nuggets 3, even 2

WizardsBetterNuggets

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

DENSmall

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

DENBig

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

Even

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

DENBig

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

WizardsBetterNuggets

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

DENSmall

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

DENBig

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

DENBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

DENBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

DEN4.4 #18

WSH		DEN
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.13 #9
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
29.3 #29	3-point %	37.4 #7
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
24.5 #24	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
7.2 #24	Steals per game	10.2 #5
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ Nuggets

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Nuggets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Nuggets