Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 21, 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Nets
CLE	This season	BKN
4-2	Record	1-5
2-4	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLE 120–108 · win probability CLE 79%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

CLE 6, BKN 1 · 2026-27 so far

CLEBig

CLE offense vs BKN defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

CLEBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

CLEBig

BKN offense vs CLE defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

CLESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, BKN 32.9. Allowed: CLE 23.2, BKN 33.5

CLESmall

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 43.6% and 48.0% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, CLE 1-2 away

CLESmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, BKN 15.9%

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, BKN 77.8%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: CLE away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 23	@ DAL	L120–130LO
Jan 25	@ NO	W111–106WU
Jan 27	vs DET	W125–94WO

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 23	vs TOR	L101–136LO
Jan 25	vs MIA	L110–126LO
Jan 27	vs PHX	L102–106WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

CLE 14–6 BKNCLE leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · CLE has won the last 8 meetings · CLE 9-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 24, 2026-27	BKN 121 @ CLE 125	CLE -11.5	BKN W
Mar 1, 2025-26	CLE 106 @ BKN 102	BKN +12.5	BKN W
Feb 19, 2025-26	BKN 84 @ CLE 112	CLE -15.5	CLE W
Oct 24, 2025-26	CLE 131 @ BKN 124	BKN +11.5	BKN W
Mar 11, 2024-25	BKN 104 @ CLE 109	CLE -14.5	BKN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cavaliers has the better starters

Position by position: Cavaliers 4, Nets 1, even 0

CavaliersBetterNets

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

CLESmall

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

CLEBig

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

CLEBig

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

BKNBig

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

CLEBig

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

CavaliersBetterNets

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

CLEBig

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

CLESmall

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

CLEBig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

CLEBig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE121.0 #2

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

CLE1.14 #7

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

CLE106.2 #3

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE55.3 #7

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

CLE37.0 #8

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

CLE43.6 #12

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

CLE28.9 #13

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE14.2 #6

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

CLE26.7 #20

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

CLE28.7 #4

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

CLE116.0 #20

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.09 #14

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

CLE52.5 #12

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

CLE33.7 #11

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

CLE14.1 #25

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

CLE73.9 #11

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

CLE7.8 #22

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

CLE6.3 #6

BKN4.7 #17

CLE		BKN
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.03 #29
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
37.0 #8	3-point %	35.1 #15
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
28.7 #4	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
7.8 #22	Steals per game	9.0 #14
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Nets

What could decide it: CLE has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Nets

Cavaliers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Nets