Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 25, 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets · Conference game

#18MIAHeat

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Heat and Nets
MIA	This season	BKN
2-4	Record	1-5
2-4	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 119–113 · win probability MIA 68%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

MIA 4, BKN 3 · 2026-27 so far

MIABig

MIA offense vs BKN defense

Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

BKNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, BKN 77.8%

MIASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, BKN 15.9%

Context

Schedule so far

MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BKNSmall

Three-pointers

MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 41.7% and 48.0% of their shots

MIASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, BKN 32.9. Allowed: MIA 23.2, BKN 33.5

MIASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, MIA 1-1 away

Even

BKN offense vs MIA defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: MIA away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Heat

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 28	@ MIL	W112–105WU
Jan 30	vs PHI	W119–109WU
Feb 1	@ IND	W145–125WO

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 27	vs PHX	L102–106WU
Jan 29	vs LAC	L89–126LO
Jan 31	@ ORL	L98–118LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 17 since 2021-22

MIA 10–7 BKNMIA leads · 17 games since 2021-22 · MIA has won the last 3 meetings · MIA 10-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 5, 2025-26	BKN 110 @ MIA 126	MIA -12.5	MIA W
Mar 3, 2025-26	BKN 98 @ MIA 124	MIA -12.5	MIA W
Dec 18, 2025-26	MIA 106 @ BKN 95	BKN +8.5	MIA W
Feb 7, 2024-25	MIA 86 @ BKN 102	BKN +5.5	BKN W
Jan 25, 2024-25	MIA 106 @ BKN 97	BKN +6.5	MIA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Heat

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIN	L 106-131	-1.5	L −26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	vsDET	L 111-128	+2.5	L −14.5	235.5	O 239
Oct 24	@CHA	L 110-115	-4.5	L −9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsDAL	L 109-113	-7.5	L −11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	@ATL	W 129-117	+2.5	W +14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 30	vsIND	W 145-125	-8.5	W +11.5	236.5	O 270

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−26.5

DET

L 111-128

−14.5

CHA

L 110-115

−9.5

DAL

L 109-113

−11.5

ATL

W 129-117

+14.5

IND

W 145-125

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIN

L 106-131

−3.5

DET

L 111-128

+3.5

CHA

L 110-115

−2.5

DAL

L 109-113

−18.5

ATL

W 129-117

+2.5

IND

W 145-125

+33.5

over 3under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Heat has the better starters

Position by position: Heat 4, Nets 1, even 0

HeatBetterNets

G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48

MIASmall

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20

MIASmall

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89

MIABig

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62

BKNSmall

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66

MIABig

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

HeatBetterNets

MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9

MIABig

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2

Even

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

MIABig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players

MIABig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

MIABig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIA betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Heat

Guards

D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min

Forwards

G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min

Centers

B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min

Out

T. HardawayDay-To-Day

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIA118.3 #9

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

MIA1.11 #14

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

MIA106.2 #5

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIA54.6 #12

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

MIA34.1 #19

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

MIA41.7 #20

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

MIA27.3 #19

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIA14.1 #5

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

MIA24.5 #24

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

MIA28.8 #3

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

MIA121.5 #26

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

MIA1.15 #26

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

MIA56.8 #27

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

MIA40.6 #29

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

MIA15.4 #18

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

MIA72.3 #17

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

MIA8.3 #19

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

MIA5.0 #13

BKN4.7 #17

MIA		BKN
Scoring
118.3 #9	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.11 #14	Points per possession	1.03 #29
106.2 #5	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
54.6 #12	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
34.1 #19	3-point %	35.1 #15
41.7 #20	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
27.3 #19	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
14.1 #5	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
24.5 #24	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
28.8 #3	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
121.5 #26	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.15 #26	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
56.8 #27	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
40.6 #29	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
15.4 #18	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
72.3 #17	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
8.3 #19	Steals per game	9.0 #14
5.0 #13	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Pacers145–125
W@ Hawks129–117
Lvs Mavericks109–113
L@ Hornets110–115
Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Heat @ Nets

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Heat

Nets

Heat has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Heat

Nets