Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 25, 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Mavericks and Bulls
DAL	This season	CHI
4-2	Record	1-5
4-2	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAL 124–116 · win probability DAL 71%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 239.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

DAL 3, CHI 3 · 2026-27 so far

DALBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

DALBig

Three-pointers

DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 42.1% and 47.9% of their shots

DALBig

DAL offense vs CHI defense

Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

DAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: DAL plays 102.8 a game (18th fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

CHISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: DAL 21.4, CHI 38.3. Allowed: DAL 27.2, CHI 33.5

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, DAL 2-1 away

CHISmall

CHI offense vs DAL defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DAL 16.8%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: DAL 14.5%, CHI 14.7%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DAL 27.8%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: DAL 69.4%, CHI 69.8%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DAL 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: DAL 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL WLWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: DAL away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DALlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Mavericks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 27	@ TOR	L92–122LU
Jan 29	vs DET	W116–114WU
Jan 31	vs HOU	W116–111WO

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 26	@ IND	L126–145LO
Jan 28	@ ORL	L103–127LU
Jan 31	@ OKC	L113–131WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

DAL 6–4 CHIDAL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DAL 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 12, 2025-26	CHI 128 @ DAL 149	DAL -5.5	DAL W
Jan 10, 2025-26	DAL 107 @ CHI 125	CHI -4.5	CHI W
Mar 29, 2024-25	DAL 120 @ CHI 119	CHI -2.5	DAL W
Nov 6, 2024-25	CHI 99 @ DAL 119	DAL -10.5	DAL W
Mar 11, 2023-24	DAL 127 @ CHI 92	CHI +3.5	DAL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mavericks

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@HOU	L 110-128	+9.5	L −8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@IND	W 121-105	+7.5	W +23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 24	vsSA	L 106-122	+14.5	L −1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 26	@MIA	W 113-109	+7.5	W +11.5	240.5	U 222
Oct 28	vsOKC	W 120-96	+4.5	W +28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 30	vsHOU	W 116-111	+5.5	W +10.5	223.5	O 227

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOU

L 110-128

−8.5

IND

W 121-105

+23.5

L 106-122

−1.5

MIA

W 113-109

+11.5

OKC

W 120-96

+28.5

HOU

W 116-111

+10.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOU

L 110-128

+7.5

IND

W 121-105

−15.5

L 106-122

−1.5

MIA

W 113-109

−18.5

OKC

W 120-96

−11.5

HOU

W 116-111

+3.5

over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mavericks has the better starters

Position by position: Mavericks 4, Bulls 1, even 0

MavericksBetterBulls

G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9

CHIBig

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78

DALBig

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49

DALBig

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65

DALBig

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46

DALSmall

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

MavericksBetterBulls

DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6

DALBig

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1

Even

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player

CHIBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players

DALBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench+2.7 · 5 players

DALBig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDAL betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Mavericks

Guards

M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min

Forwards

P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min

Centers

M. Cisse14 min

Out

S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DAL114.3 #14

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

DAL1.12 #11

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

DAL102.8 #18

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

DAL56.9 #2

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

DAL35.1 #14

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

DAL42.1 #18

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

DAL21.4 #29

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

DAL16.8 #23

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

DAL27.8 #13

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

DAL27.0 #12

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

DAL111.8 #14

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

DAL1.08 #13

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

DAL51.3 #9

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

DAL29.7 #2

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

DAL14.5 #24

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

DAL69.4 #25

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

DAL8.8 #16

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

DAL6.8 #2

CHI5.0 #12

DAL		CHI
Scoring
114.3 #14	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.12 #11	Points per possession	1.04 #26
102.8 #18	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
56.9 #2	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
35.1 #14	3-point %	28.1 #30
42.1 #18	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
21.4 #29	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
16.8 #23	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
27.8 #13	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
27.0 #12	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
111.8 #14	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.08 #13	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
51.3 #9	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
29.7 #2	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
14.5 #24	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
69.4 #25	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
8.8 #16	Steals per game	8.7 #17
6.8 #2	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Rockets116–111
Wvs Thunder120–96
W@ Heat113–109
Lvs Spurs106–122
W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Mavericks @ Bulls

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Mavericks

Bulls

Mavericks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Mavericks

Bulls