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NBA · Fri, Jan 29

Pistons @ Mavericks

American Airlines Center · at Mavericks
#4DETPistons
@
#17DALMavericks
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DETThis seasonDAL
5-1Record4-2
5-1ATS4-2
2-4O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DET 113–111 · win probability DET 58%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 223.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DET has more of the edges

DET 3, DAL 2 · 2026-27 so far
DETBig
DAL offense vs DET defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
DET has played the 17th-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DET 15.6%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: DET 17.1%, DAL 14.5%
DETSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: DET 28.9, DAL 21.4. Allowed: DET 28.1, DAL 27.2
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: DET plays 100.9 a game (29th fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points
DALSmall
Home court
DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, DET 3-1 away
DALSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: DET 53.1 and allows 48.8; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DET 27.2%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: DET 72.8%, DAL 69.4%
Even
Three-pointers
DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 43.3% and 42.1% of their shots
Even
DET offense vs DAL defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Recent form
Last 5: DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DET 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: DET 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -2.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model223.8
Model edge—
Projected score
DET 113.3 · DAL 110.5
Win probability
DET 58%
1st half
Spread
DET -1.7
Total
112.2
Projected score
DET 57 · DAL 55.2
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Pistons has the better starters

Position by position: Pistons 3, Mavericks 1, even 1
PistonsBetterMavericks
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast Score 47
DETBig
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast Score 79
Even
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 77
DETSmall
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast Score 97
DETSmall
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 30
DALSmall
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46
PistonsBetterMavericks
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
Even
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
DETBig
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
DETBig
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
DETBig
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
DETBig
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDET betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Pistons
Guards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
Mavericks
Guards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DETDAL
Scoring
109.8 #21Points per game114.3 #14
1.09 #18Points per possession1.12 #11
100.9 #29Pace (possessions)102.8 #18
Shooting
53.1 #17Effective FG%56.9 #2
36.3 #93-point %35.1 #14
43.3 #133-point attempt rate42.1 #18
28.9 #14Free throw rate21.4 #29
Possessions
15.6 #17Turnover rate16.8 #23
27.2 #17Offensive rebound rate27.8 #13
26.7 #15Assists per game27.0 #12
Defense
101.8 #1Points allowed111.8 #14
1.01 #1Points allowed per possession1.08 #13
48.8 #2Opponent effective FG%51.3 #9
32.5 #10Opponent 3-point %29.7 #2
17.1 #6Turnovers forced14.5 #24
72.8 #15Defensive rebound rate69.4 #25
9.0 #12Steals per game8.8 #16
6.7 #4Blocks per game6.8 #2
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pistons

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Nets110–94
  • Wvs Hornets97–89
  • L@ Knicks97–111
  • W@ 76ers106–93
  • W@ Heat128–111

A week or more of rest.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Rockets116–111
  • Wvs Thunder120–96
  • W@ Heat113–109
  • Lvs Spurs106–122
  • W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.