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NBA · Sun, Jan 31

Rockets @ Mavericks

American Airlines Center · at Mavericks · Conference game
#1HOURockets
@
#17DALMavericks
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
HOUThis seasonDAL
6-1Record4-2
6-1ATS4-2
5-2O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 116–111 · win probability HOU 63%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 227.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

HOU 6, DAL 1 · 2026-27 so far
HOUBig
DAL offense vs HOU defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings
HOUBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: HOU 31.9, DAL 21.4. Allowed: HOU 24.7, DAL 27.2
HOUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: HOU 32.4%, DAL 27.8%. Defensive: HOU 73.2%, DAL 69.4%
HOUBig
HOU offense vs DAL defense
Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
HOU has played the 12th-hardest schedule, DAL the 2nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
HOUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: HOU 15.1%, DAL 16.8%. Forced: HOU 15.7%, DAL 14.5%
HOUSmall
Three-pointers
HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%; DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%. Threes are 38.1% and 42.1% of their shots
DALSmall
Home court
DAL at home. This season: DAL 2-1 at home, HOU 3-1 away
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: HOU plays 101.6 a game (24th fastest), DAL 102.8 (18th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1; DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3
Even
Recent form
Last 5: HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0; DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: HOU 100%, DAL 100%. Transfers in: HOU 0, DAL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelHOU -4.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model227.2
Model edge—
Projected score
HOU 116 · DAL 111.2
Win probability
HOU 63%
1st half
Spread
HOU -2.8
Total
113.8
Projected score
HOU 58.3 · DAL 55.5
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Rockets 5, Mavericks 0, even 0
RocketsBetterMavericks
G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60
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G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9
G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94
HOUSmall
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79
HOUSmall
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49
F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82
HOUSmall
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65
C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84
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F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46
RocketsBetterMavericks
HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9
HOUSmall
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2
HOUBig
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players
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Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players
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Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
Bench+16.2 · 5 players
HOUBig
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestHOU betterDAL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Rockets
Guards
A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min
Forwards
J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min
Centers
A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min
Out
S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day
Mavericks
Guards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
HOUDAL
Scoring
120.7 #3Points per game114.3 #14
1.20 #1Points per possession1.12 #11
101.6 #24Pace (possessions)102.8 #18
Shooting
56.6 #3Effective FG%56.9 #2
39.0 #33-point %35.1 #14
38.1 #263-point attempt rate42.1 #18
31.9 #8Free throw rate21.4 #29
Possessions
15.1 #13Turnover rate16.8 #23
32.4 #3Offensive rebound rate27.8 #13
28.1 #5Assists per game27.0 #12
Defense
108.3 #7Points allowed111.8 #14
1.06 #8Points allowed per possession1.08 #13
52.1 #10Opponent effective FG%51.3 #9
30.2 #4Opponent 3-point %29.7 #2
15.7 #16Turnovers forced14.5 #24
73.2 #14Defensive rebound rate69.4 #25
9.7 #6Steals per game8.8 #16
5.9 #8Blocks per game6.8 #2
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Thunder119–98
  • L@ Mavericks111–116
  • W@ Bucks132–100
  • Wvs Hawks120–110
  • W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Rockets116–111
  • Wvs Thunder120–96
  • W@ Heat113–109
  • Lvs Spurs106–122
  • W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.