Ball Arena · at Nuggets · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 DAL | This season | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 4-2 | ATS | 2-3 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 3-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects DEN 119–115 · win probability DEN 59%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 233.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges
DAL 2, DEN 4 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
DAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DENBigFree throws
Free throw rate: DAL 21.4, DEN 31.3. Allowed: DAL 27.2, DEN 21.5
DALBigShooting
Effective FG%: DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2
DENSmallDEN offense vs DAL defense
Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
DENSmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: DAL 16.8%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: DAL 14.5%, DEN 15.9%
DALSmallRecent form
Last 5: DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2
DENSmallHome court
DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, DAL 2-1 away
Even
DAL offense vs DEN defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 42.1% and 40.9% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: DAL plays 102.8 a game (18th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DAL 27.8%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: DAL 69.4%, DEN 70.5%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DAL 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: DAL 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDEN -3.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model233.9
Model edge—
Projected score
DAL 115.3 · DEN 118.6
Win probability
DEN 59%
1st half
Spread
DEN -1.7
Total
117.0
Projected score
DAL 57.6 · DEN 59.3
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DALlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% |
| DENlast 5 | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% | 3-2 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22
DAL 8–10 DENDEN leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings · DAL 10-8 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025-26 | DAL 135 @ DEN 142 | DEN -10.5 | DAL W |
| Jan 14, 2025-26 | DEN 118 @ DAL 109 | DAL -1.5 | DEN W |
| Dec 23, 2025-26 | DEN 130 @ DAL 131 | DAL +6.5 | DAL W |
| Dec 1, 2025-26 | DAL 131 @ DEN 121 | DEN -11.5 | DAL W |
| Jan 14, 2024-25 | DEN 118 @ DAL 99 | DAL +2.5 | DEN W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mavericks
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
HOU
HOUL 110-128
−8.5
23
@
IND
INDW 121-105
+23.5
24
vs
SA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@
MIA
MIAW 113-109
+11.5
28
vs
OKC
OKCW 120-96
+28.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+10.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
+7.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
−15.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@MIA
MIAW 113-109
−18.5
28
vsOKC
OKCW 120-96
−11.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+3.5
over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Nuggets
5 games played
Straight up
3-2
60% wins
Against the spread
2-3
40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-2
60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
22
@OKC
OKCL 84-96
−4.5
24
vs
NO
NOW 141-135
−5.5
26
vs
GS
GSL 114-134
−26.5
28
@NO
NOW 104-91
+8.5
30
@
PHX
PHXW 127-120
+2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
22
@OKC
OKCL 84-96
−56.5
24
vsNO
NOW 141-135
+36.5
26
vsGS
GSL 114-134
+11.5
28
@NO
NOW 104-91
−46.5
30
@PHX
PHXW 127-120
+15.5
over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Nuggets has the better starters
Position by position: Mavericks 0, Nuggets 4, even 1
MavericksBetterNuggets
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast
Score 9
→DENSmall
G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 40
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 78
=Even
G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast
Score 66
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast
Score 49
→DENSmall
F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast
Score 74
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 65
→DENSmall
F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast
Score 98
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 46
→DENBig
C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast
Score 86
MavericksBetterNuggets
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
=Even
DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
→DENSmall
DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
→DENBig
Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
→DENBig
Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
←DALBig
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDAL betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
MavericksGuards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
NuggetsGuards
J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min
Forwards
A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min
Centers
N. Jokic37 min
Out
A. DialloOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
DAL114.3 #14DEN114.0 #15Points per possession
DAL1.12 #11DEN1.13 #9Pace (possessions)
DAL102.8 #18DEN102.1 #21Shooting
Effective FG%
DAL56.9 #2DEN54.7 #113-point %
DAL35.1 #14DEN37.4 #73-point attempt rate
DAL42.1 #18DEN40.9 #22Free throw rate
DAL21.4 #29DEN31.3 #11Possessions
Turnover rate
DAL16.8 #23DEN16.4 #21Offensive rebound rate
DAL27.8 #13DEN27.5 #15Assists per game
DAL27.0 #12DEN26.8 #14Defense
Points allowed
DAL111.8 #14DEN115.2 #18Points allowed per possession
DAL1.08 #13DEN1.12 #20Opponent effective FG%
DAL51.3 #9DEN54.2 #20Opponent 3-point %
DAL29.7 #2DEN35.0 #15Turnovers forced
DAL14.5 #24DEN15.9 #11Defensive rebound rate
DAL69.4 #25DEN70.5 #22Steals per game
DAL8.8 #16DEN10.2 #5Blocks per game
DAL6.8 #2DEN4.4 #18| DAL | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 114.3 #14 | Points per game | 114.0 #15 |
| 1.12 #11 | Points per possession | 1.13 #9 |
| 102.8 #18 | Pace (possessions) | 102.1 #21 |
| Shooting | ||
| 56.9 #2 | Effective FG% | 54.7 #11 |
| 35.1 #14 | 3-point % | 37.4 #7 |
| 42.1 #18 | 3-point attempt rate | 40.9 #22 |
| 21.4 #29 | Free throw rate | 31.3 #11 |
| Possessions | ||
| 16.8 #23 | Turnover rate | 16.4 #21 |
| 27.8 #13 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.5 #15 |
| 27.0 #12 | Assists per game | 26.8 #14 |
| Defense | ||
| 111.8 #14 | Points allowed | 115.2 #18 |
| 1.08 #13 | Points allowed per possession | 1.12 #20 |
| 51.3 #9 | Opponent effective FG% | 54.2 #20 |
| 29.7 #2 | Opponent 3-point % | 35.0 #15 |
| 14.5 #24 | Turnovers forced | 15.9 #11 |
| 69.4 #25 | Defensive rebound rate | 70.5 #22 |
| 8.8 #16 | Steals per game | 10.2 #5 |
| 6.8 #2 | Blocks per game | 4.4 #18 |
Mavericks
4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Rockets116–111
- Wvs Thunder120–96
- W@ Heat113–109
- Lvs Spurs106–122
- W@ Pacers121–105
A week or more of rest.
Nuggets
3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Suns127–120
- W@ Pelicans104–91
- Lvs Warriors114–134
- Wvs Pelicans141–135
- L@ Thunder84–96
A week or more of rest.