Denver Nuggets at Atlanta Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Feb 7, 3:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · at Hawks

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nuggets and Hawks
DEN	This season	ATL
3-2	Record	3-4
2-3	ATS	3-4
3-2	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 118–117 · win probability ATL 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

DEN 3, ATL 3 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: DEN 31.3, ATL 23.4. Allowed: DEN 21.5, ATL 32.1

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DEN 16.4%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: DEN 15.9%, ATL 18.3%

ATLBig

ATL offense vs DEN defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

DEN offense vs ATL defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

DEN has played the 18th-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: DEN plays 102.1 a game (21st fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points

DENSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5

ATLSmall

Home court

ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, DEN 2-1 away

Even

Three-pointers

DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 40.9% and 44.7% of their shots

Even

Recent form

Last 5: DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DEN 27.5%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: DEN 70.5%, ATL 70.9%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DEN 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: DEN 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	2-1	—
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: DEN away; ATL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 9	@ BOS	W103–84WU
Feb 11	vs CHI	W136–120WO
Feb 12	@ LAL	L125–127LO

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 8	vs MIA	L117–129LO
Feb 10	vs NO	L99–121LU
Feb 12	vs PHX	W110–103WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

DEN 8–2 ATLDEN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · DEN 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 9, 2025-26	ATL 110 @ DEN 87	DEN +3.5	ATL W
Dec 5, 2025-26	DEN 134 @ ATL 133	ATL +3.5	ATL W
Jan 1, 2024-25	ATL 120 @ DEN 139	DEN -8.5	DEN W
Dec 8, 2024-25	DEN 141 @ ATL 111	ATL -0.5	DEN W
Apr 6, 2023-24	ATL 110 @ DEN 142	DEN -10.5	DEN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Nuggets 3, Hawks 2, even 0

NuggetsBetterHawks

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

ATLSmall

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

ATLSmall

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

DENSmall

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

DENSmall

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

DENBig

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

NuggetsBetterHawks

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

DENSmall

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

ATLBig

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestDEN betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DEN114.0 #15

ATL116.3 #13

Points per possession

DEN1.13 #9

ATL1.10 #16

Pace (possessions)

DEN102.1 #21

ATL105.6 #7

Shooting

Effective FG%

DEN54.7 #11

ATL52.6 #19

3-point %

DEN37.4 #7

ATL32.8 #22

3-point attempt rate

DEN40.9 #22

ATL44.7 #11

Free throw rate

DEN31.3 #11

ATL23.4 #26

Possessions

Turnover rate

DEN16.4 #21

ATL13.8 #4

Offensive rebound rate

DEN27.5 #15

ATL27.1 #18

Assists per game

DEN26.8 #14

ATL30.7 #1

Defense

Points allowed

DEN115.2 #18

ATL115.4 #19

Points allowed per possession

DEN1.12 #20

ATL1.10 #17

Opponent effective FG%

DEN54.2 #20

ATL54.5 #22

Opponent 3-point %

DEN35.0 #15

ATL31.9 #7

Turnovers forced

DEN15.9 #11

ATL18.3 #2

Defensive rebound rate

DEN70.5 #22

ATL70.9 #19

Steals per game

DEN10.2 #5

ATL9.4 #8

Blocks per game

DEN4.4 #18

ATL3.7 #29

DEN		ATL
Scoring
114.0 #15	Points per game	116.3 #13
1.13 #9	Points per possession	1.10 #16
102.1 #21	Pace (possessions)	105.6 #7
Shooting
54.7 #11	Effective FG%	52.6 #19
37.4 #7	3-point %	32.8 #22
40.9 #22	3-point attempt rate	44.7 #11
31.3 #11	Free throw rate	23.4 #26
Possessions
16.4 #21	Turnover rate	13.8 #4
27.5 #15	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #18
26.8 #14	Assists per game	30.7 #1
Defense
115.2 #18	Points allowed	115.4 #19
1.12 #20	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #17
54.2 #20	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #22
35.0 #15	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #7
15.9 #11	Turnovers forced	18.3 #2
70.5 #22	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #19
10.2 #5	Steals per game	9.4 #8
4.4 #18	Blocks per game	3.7 #29

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets @ Hawks

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nuggets

Hawks

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nuggets

Hawks