Phoenix Suns at Atlanta Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Feb 12, 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · at Hawks

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Suns and Hawks
PHX	This season	ATL
1-3	Record	3-4
0-4	ATS	3-4
3-1	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 119–113 · win probability ATL 66%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

PHX 0, ATL 4 · 2026-27 so far

ATLBig

ATL offense vs PHX defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: PHX plays 101.3 a game (26th fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points

ATLSmall

Three-pointers

PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 45.1% and 44.7% of their shots

ATLSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHX 15.2%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: PHX 17.1%, ATL 18.3%

Context

Schedule so far

PHX has played the 3rd-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ATLSmall

Home court

ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, PHX 0-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 4: PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHX 28.3%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: PHX 65.1%, ATL 70.9%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHX 22.8, ATL 23.4. Allowed: PHX 31.1, ATL 32.1

Even

PHX offense vs ATL defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHX 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: PHX 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: PHX away; ATL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 14	@ CLE	W126–113WO
Feb 15	@ WSH	W112–93WU
Feb 17	@ PHI	L103–109LU

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 14	vs SAC	W123–113LO
Feb 16	vs TOR	L100–118LU
Feb 17	@ BKN	W141–107WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

PHX 3–7 ATLATL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · ATL has won the last 3 meetings · PHX 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 23, 2025-26	PHX 103 @ ATL 110	ATL +3.5	ATL W
Nov 16, 2025-26	ATL 124 @ PHX 122	PHX -1.5	ATL W
Jan 14, 2024-25	PHX 117 @ ATL 122	ATL +2.5	ATL W
Jan 9, 2024-25	ATL 115 @ PHX 123	PHX -5.5	PHX W
Mar 21, 2023-24	ATL 115 @ PHX 128	PHX -9.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Suns 1, Hawks 3, even 1

SunsBetterHawks

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

PHXSmall

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

ATLBig

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

ATLBig

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

ATLSmall

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

Even

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

SunsBetterHawks

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Even

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

ATLBig

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

ATLBig

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHX betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHX112.0 #19

ATL116.3 #13

Points per possession

PHX1.12 #12

ATL1.10 #16

Pace (possessions)

PHX101.3 #26

ATL105.6 #7

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHX54.4 #13

ATL52.6 #19

3-point %

PHX35.0 #16

ATL32.8 #22

3-point attempt rate

PHX45.1 #10

ATL44.7 #11

Free throw rate

PHX22.8 #27

ATL23.4 #26

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHX15.2 #15

ATL13.8 #4

Offensive rebound rate

PHX28.3 #11

ATL27.1 #18

Assists per game

PHX27.5 #8

ATL30.7 #1

Defense

Points allowed

PHX124.5 #27

ATL115.4 #19

Points allowed per possession

PHX1.21 #30

ATL1.10 #17

Opponent effective FG%

PHX58.7 #29

ATL54.5 #22

Opponent 3-point %

PHX43.9 #30

ATL31.9 #7

Turnovers forced

PHX17.1 #7

ATL18.3 #2

Defensive rebound rate

PHX65.1 #30

ATL70.9 #19

Steals per game

PHX9.0 #15

ATL9.4 #8

Blocks per game

PHX5.3 #10

ATL3.7 #29

PHX		ATL
Scoring
112.0 #19	Points per game	116.3 #13
1.12 #12	Points per possession	1.10 #16
101.3 #26	Pace (possessions)	105.6 #7
Shooting
54.4 #13	Effective FG%	52.6 #19
35.0 #16	3-point %	32.8 #22
45.1 #10	3-point attempt rate	44.7 #11
22.8 #27	Free throw rate	23.4 #26
Possessions
15.2 #15	Turnover rate	13.8 #4
28.3 #11	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #18
27.5 #8	Assists per game	30.7 #1
Defense
124.5 #27	Points allowed	115.4 #19
1.21 #30	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #17
58.7 #29	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #22
43.9 #30	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #7
17.1 #7	Turnovers forced	18.3 #2
65.1 #30	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #19
9.0 #15	Steals per game	9.4 #8
5.3 #10	Blocks per game	3.7 #29

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Suns @ Hawks

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Suns

Hawks

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Suns

Hawks