Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Feb 17, 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hawks and Nets
ATL	This season	BKN
3-4	Record	1-5
3-4	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 118–110 · win probability ATL 72%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 227.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

ATL 4, BKN 4 · 2026-27 so far

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, BKN 15.9%

ATLBig

ATL offense vs BKN defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

ATLBig

BKN offense vs ATL defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BKNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, BKN 32.9. Allowed: ATL 32.1, BKN 33.5

BKNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, BKN 77.8%

BKNSmall

Recent form

Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, ATL 2-2 away

ATLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

Even

Three-pointers

ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 44.7% and 48.0% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: ATL away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 25	@ CHI	L123–126LU
Feb 26	@ TOR	L100–118LU
Feb 28	@ ORL	W132–125WO

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 25	vs PHI	L97–104WU
Feb 27	@ CHI	W123–115WO
Mar 1	@ DEN	L103–107WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

ATL 9–9 BKNSeries tied · 18 games since 2021-22 · ATL has won the last 5 meetings · ATL 6-12 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 3, 2025-26	ATL 141 @ BKN 107	BKN +16.5	ATL W
Mar 12, 2025-26	BKN 97 @ ATL 108	ATL -15.5	BKN W
Feb 22, 2025-26	BKN 104 @ ATL 115	ATL -9.5	ATL W
Oct 29, 2025-26	ATL 117 @ BKN 112	BKN +8.5	BKN W
Apr 10, 2024-25	ATL 133 @ BKN 109	BKN +13.5	ATL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 4, Nets 0, even 1

HawksBetterNets

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

ATLBig

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

ATLBig

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

ATLSmall

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

Even

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

ATLSmall

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

HawksBetterNets

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

ATLBig

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

ATLBig

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

ATLBig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

BKNBig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

ATLBig

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestATL betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ATL116.3 #13

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

ATL1.10 #16

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

ATL105.6 #7

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

ATL52.6 #19

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

ATL32.8 #22

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

ATL44.7 #11

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

ATL23.4 #26

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

ATL13.8 #4

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

ATL27.1 #18

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

ATL30.7 #1

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

ATL115.4 #19

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

ATL1.10 #17

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

ATL54.5 #22

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

ATL31.9 #7

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

ATL18.3 #2

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

ATL70.9 #19

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

ATL9.4 #8

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

ATL3.7 #29

BKN4.7 #17

ATL		BKN
Scoring
116.3 #13	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.10 #16	Points per possession	1.03 #29
105.6 #7	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
52.6 #19	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
32.8 #22	3-point %	35.1 #15
44.7 #11	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
23.4 #26	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
13.8 #4	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
27.1 #18	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
30.7 #1	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
115.4 #19	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.10 #17	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
54.5 #22	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
31.9 #7	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
18.3 #2	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
70.9 #19	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
9.4 #8	Steals per game	9.0 #14
3.7 #29	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Hawks @ Nets

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hawks

Nets

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hawks

Nets