Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Feb 25, 7:30 PM ETBarclays Center · at Nets · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: 76ers and Nets
PHI	This season	BKN
6-1	Record	1-5
4-3	ATS	3-3
2-5	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHI 113–106 · win probability PHI 70%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 219.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

PHI 3, BKN 2 · 2026-27 so far

PHIBig

BKN offense vs PHI defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, BKN 18.2%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, BKN 15.9%

BKNBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, BKN 25.4%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, BKN 77.8%

PHIBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), BKN 105.1 (10th). Faster games mean more points

BKNSmall

Home court

BKN at home. This season: BKN 0-3 at home, PHI 3-0 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0

Even

Three-pointers

PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 39.5% and 48.0% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, BKN 32.9. Allowed: PHI 28.5, BKN 33.5

Context

Schedule so far

PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, BKN the 19th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

PHI offense vs BKN defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, BKN 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, BKN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	0-3	—

Venue/role: PHI away; BKN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 27	@ NY	W98–93WU
Mar 1	@ CLE	W114–106WU
Mar 3	vs CHA	W109–104WO

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 27	@ CHI	W123–115WO
Mar 1	@ DEN	L103–107WO
Mar 3	@ PHX	L102–106WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 24 since 2021-22

PHI 16–8 BKNPHI leads · 24 games since 2021-22 · PHI 14-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 14, 2025-26	BKN 97 @ PHI 104	PHI -8.5	BKN W
Dec 23, 2025-26	BKN 114 @ PHI 106	PHI -9.5	BKN W
Nov 28, 2025-26	PHI 115 @ BKN 103	BKN +7.5	PHI W
Nov 2, 2025-26	PHI 129 @ BKN 105	BKN +4.5	PHI W
Feb 22, 2024-25	BKN 105 @ PHI 103	PHI -11.5	BKN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

76ers has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 4, Nets 1, even 0

76ersBetterNets

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

PHIBig

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

PHISmall

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

PHIBig

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

BKNBig

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

PHIBig

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

76ersBetterNets

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Even

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

PHIBig

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

PHIBig

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

PHIBig

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

BKNSmall

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHI betterBKN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHI108.7 #23

BKN108.2 #25

Points per possession

PHI1.06 #22

BKN1.03 #29

Pace (possessions)

PHI102.4 #19

BKN105.1 #10

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHI50.8 #25

BKN50.7 #26

3-point %

PHI34.0 #20

BKN35.1 #15

3-point attempt rate

PHI39.5 #23

BKN48.0 #3

Free throw rate

PHI28.7 #16

BKN32.9 #6

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHI12.3 #1

BKN18.2 #27

Offensive rebound rate

PHI19.9 #30

BKN25.4 #23

Assists per game

PHI25.1 #22

BKN22.8 #28

Defense

Points allowed

PHI104.9 #2

BKN116.0 #21

Points allowed per possession

PHI1.03 #3

BKN1.11 #18

Opponent effective FG%

PHI49.8 #4

BKN55.3 #23

Opponent 3-point %

PHI32.1 #9

BKN35.8 #19

Turnovers forced

PHI17.0 #9

BKN15.9 #12

Defensive rebound rate

PHI70.8 #21

BKN77.8 #2

Steals per game

PHI9.6 #7

BKN9.0 #14

Blocks per game

PHI5.0 #14

BKN4.7 #17

PHI		BKN
Scoring
108.7 #23	Points per game	108.2 #25
1.06 #22	Points per possession	1.03 #29
102.4 #19	Pace (possessions)	105.1 #10
Shooting
50.8 #25	Effective FG%	50.7 #26
34.0 #20	3-point %	35.1 #15
39.5 #23	3-point attempt rate	48.0 #3
28.7 #16	Free throw rate	32.9 #6
Possessions
12.3 #1	Turnover rate	18.2 #27
19.9 #30	Offensive rebound rate	25.4 #23
25.1 #22	Assists per game	22.8 #28
Defense
104.9 #2	Points allowed	116.0 #21
1.03 #3	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #18
49.8 #4	Opponent effective FG%	55.3 #23
32.1 #9	Opponent 3-point %	35.8 #19
17.0 #9	Turnovers forced	15.9 #12
70.8 #21	Defensive rebound rate	77.8 #2
9.6 #7	Steals per game	9.0 #14
5.0 #14	Blocks per game	4.7 #17

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

76ers @ Nets

What could decide it: PHI has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

76ers

Nets

76ers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

76ers

Nets