Oklahoma City Thunder at New York Knicks: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Feb 25, 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · at Knicks

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Thunder and Knicks
OKC	This season	NY
4-2	Record	2-4
3-3	ATS	1-5
1-5	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 110–106 · win probability NY 61%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 216.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

OKC 2, NY 4 · 2026-27 so far

OKCBig

NY offense vs OKC defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

NYBig

OKC offense vs NY defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

OKCBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, NY 15.2%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, NY 13.2%

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, NY 30.3%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, NY 78.7%

Context

Schedule so far

OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, NY the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NYSmall

Three-pointers

OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 35.8% and 43.2% of their shots

NYSmall

Home court

NY at home. This season: NY 1-2 at home, OKC 1-2 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; NY 49.5 and allows 53.1

Even

Recent form

Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, NY 24.5. Allowed: OKC 23.4, NY 25.9

Context

Tempo

About 101 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), NY 101.0 (28th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, NY 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, NY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	1-2	—

Venue/role: OKC away; NY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 27	@ DET	W114–110LO
Mar 2	vs MIN	W116–103WU
Mar 4	@ SAC	W113–99LU

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 27	vs PHI	L93–98LU
Feb 28	vs MIL	W127–98WO
Mar 2	vs MEM	W130–119LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

OKC 9–1 NYOKC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · OKC has won the last 6 meetings · OKC 7-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 29, 2025-26	NY 100 @ OKC 111	OKC -7.5	OKC W
Mar 4, 2025-26	OKC 103 @ NY 100	NY +4.5	NY W
Jan 10, 2024-25	OKC 126 @ NY 101	NY +2.5	OKC W
Jan 3, 2024-25	NY 107 @ OKC 117	OKC -4.5	OKC W
Mar 31, 2023-24	OKC 113 @ NY 112	NY +1.5	NY W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Thunder 0, Knicks 2, even 3

ThunderBetterKnicks

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

Even

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

Even

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

NYBig

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

NYSmall

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

Even

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

ThunderBetterKnicks

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

NYBig

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

OKCBig

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

NYBig

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

NYBig

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestOKC betterNY betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

OKC106.5 #29

NY107.0 #27

Points per possession

OKC1.05 #23

NY1.05 #24

Pace (possessions)

OKC101.1 #27

NY101.0 #28

Shooting

Effective FG%

OKC49.5 #28

NY49.5 #27

3-point %

OKC30.9 #26

NY35.2 #13

3-point attempt rate

OKC35.8 #29

NY43.2 #14

Free throw rate

OKC21.8 #28

NY24.5 #23

Possessions

Turnover rate

OKC14.5 #7

NY15.2 #14

Offensive rebound rate

OKC28.5 #10

NY30.3 #6

Assists per game

OKC21.7 #29

NY26.2 #18

Defense

Points allowed

OKC107.0 #5

NY107.7 #6

Points allowed per possession

OKC1.06 #7

NY1.07 #12

Opponent effective FG%

OKC51.0 #6

NY53.1 #14

Opponent 3-point %

OKC35.3 #17

NY35.5 #18

Turnovers forced

OKC15.8 #13

NY13.2 #29

Defensive rebound rate

OKC71.4 #18

NY78.7 #1

Steals per game

OKC8.3 #20

NY7.3 #23

Blocks per game

OKC6.3 #7

NY4.0 #28

OKC		NY
Scoring
106.5 #29	Points per game	107.0 #27
1.05 #23	Points per possession	1.05 #24
101.1 #27	Pace (possessions)	101.0 #28
Shooting
49.5 #28	Effective FG%	49.5 #27
30.9 #26	3-point %	35.2 #13
35.8 #29	3-point attempt rate	43.2 #14
21.8 #28	Free throw rate	24.5 #23
Possessions
14.5 #7	Turnover rate	15.2 #14
28.5 #10	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #6
21.7 #29	Assists per game	26.2 #18
Defense
107.0 #5	Points allowed	107.7 #6
1.06 #7	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #12
51.0 #6	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #14
35.3 #17	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #18
15.8 #13	Turnovers forced	13.2 #29
71.4 #18	Defensive rebound rate	78.7 #1
8.3 #20	Steals per game	7.3 #23
6.3 #7	Blocks per game	4.0 #28

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Thunder @ Knicks

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Thunder

Knicks

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Thunder

Knicks