Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Feb 25, 7:00 PM ETKia Center · at Magic · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Magic
CHA	This season	ORL
3-4	Record	2-4
3-4	ATS	2-4
1-6	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORL 110–107 · win probability ORL 60%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 217.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

CHA 2, ORL 5 · 2026-27 so far

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, ORL 68.9%

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less

ORLBig

CHA offense vs ORL defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

CHABig

ORL offense vs CHA defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

ORLBig

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 50.8% and 46.5% of their shots

ORLSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, ORL 31.7. Allowed: CHA 28.4, ORL 29.8

ORLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0

ORLSmall

Home court

ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, CHA 1-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, ORL 13.6%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	—

Venue/role: CHA away; ORL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 26	@ HOU	L101–105WU
Feb 28	vs SAC	W134–90WU
Mar 3	@ PHI	L104–109LO

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 28	vs ATL	L125–132LO
Mar 2	vs LAL	L104–105WU
Mar 4	vs IND	L126–128LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

CHA 8–13 ORLORL leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · CHA 7-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 17, 2025-26	CHA 90 @ ORL 121	ORL +2.5	ORL W
Mar 19, 2025-26	ORL 111 @ CHA 130	CHA -5.5	CHA W
Jan 22, 2025-26	CHA 124 @ ORL 97	ORL -3.5	CHA W
Dec 26, 2025-26	CHA 120 @ ORL 105	ORL -5.5	CHA W
Oct 30, 2025-26	ORL 123 @ CHA 107	CHA +3.5	ORL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Hornets 2, Magic 2, even 1

HornetsBetterMagic

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

ORLBig

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

CHABig

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

ORLSmall

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

CHASmall

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

Even

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

HornetsBetterMagic

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

ORLBig

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

CHABig

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

CHASmall

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

ORLBig

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

ORLBig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

CHA

ORL

Scoring

98.3Points per game107.7

0.99Points per possession1.07

98.3Pace (possessions)101.9

Shooting

48.4Effective FG%53.4

29.63-point %35.4

50.83-point attempt rate46.5

18.9Free throw rate31.7

Possessions

18.8Turnover rate17.0

31.6Offensive rebound rate23.4

21.6Assists per game26.3

Defense

106.4Points allowed116.7

1.09Points allowed per possession1.13

53.1Opponent effective FG%53.0

37.5Opponent 3-point %34.6

14.5Turnovers forced13.6

76.6Defensive rebound rate68.9

7.1Steals per game7.0

5.0Blocks per game4.2

CHA		ORL
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	107.7 #26
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.07 #21
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	101.9 #22
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	53.4 #15
29.6 #28	3-point %	35.4 #11
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #6
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	31.7 #9
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	17.0 #24
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	23.4 #26
21.6 #30	Assists per game	26.3 #16
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	116.7 #22
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #24
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #13
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #13
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	13.6 #26
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #26
7.1 #25	Steals per game	7.0 #26
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	4.2 #23

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Magic

What could decide it: ORL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Magic

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Magic