Charlotte Hornets at Houston Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Feb 26, 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hornets and Rockets
CHA	This season	HOU
3-4	Record	6-1
3-4	ATS	6-1
1-6	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 114–101 · win probability HOU 81%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

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model 215.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

CHA 1, HOU 7 · 2026-27 so far

HOUBig

CHA offense vs HOU defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

HOUBig

Three-pointers

CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 50.8% and 38.1% of their shots

HOUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1

HOUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: CHA 18.9, HOU 31.9. Allowed: CHA 28.4, HOU 24.7

HOUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CHA 18.8%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: CHA 14.5%, HOU 15.7%

Context

Schedule so far

CHA has played the 22nd-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less

HOUSmall

Recent form

Last 5: CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0

HOUSmall

Home court

HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, CHA 1-2 away

CHASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CHA 31.6%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: CHA 76.6%, HOU 73.2%

Context

Tempo

About 100 possessions: CHA plays 98.3 a game (30th fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points

Even

HOU offense vs CHA defense

Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CHA 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: CHA 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
HOU WWWLW	6-1	86%	3-0	—

Venue/role: CHA away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4
HOU OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
HOUlast 7	6-1 86%	6-1 86%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 28	vs SAC	W134–90WU
Mar 3	@ PHI	L104–109LO
Mar 6	@ CHI	W131–99WU

Rockets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 28	vs MIA	W123–122LO
Mar 1	vs GS	W117–116LO
Mar 3	vs NO	W134–102WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CHA 4–6 HOUHOU leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHA 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 19, 2025-26	HOU 105 @ CHA 101	CHA +4.5	CHA W
Feb 5, 2025-26	CHA 109 @ HOU 99	HOU -4.5	CHA W
Dec 23, 2024-25	HOU 114 @ CHA 101	CHA +6.5	HOU W
Oct 23, 2024-25	CHA 110 @ HOU 105	HOU -8.5	CHA W
Jan 26, 2023-24	HOU 138 @ CHA 104	CHA +4.5	HOU W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rockets

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsDAL	W 128-110	-9.5	W +8.5	230.5	O 238
Oct 23	@SA	W 114-110	+4.5	W +8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@ATL	W 121-114	-1.5	W +5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	vsATL	W 120-110	-4.5	W +5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	@MIL	W 132-100	-8.5	W +23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 30	@DAL	L 111-116	-5.5	L −10.5	223.5	O 227
Oct 31	vsOKC	W 119-98	-2.5	W +18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+8.5

W 114-110

+8.5

ATL

W 121-114

+5.5

ATL

W 120-110

+5.5

MIL

W 132-100

+23.5

DAL

L 111-116

−10.5

OKC

W 119-98

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DAL

W 128-110

+7.5

W 114-110

−0.5

ATL

W 121-114

+7.5

ATL

W 120-110

+1.5

MIL

W 132-100

+5.5

DAL

L 111-116

+3.5

OKC

W 119-98

−2.5

over 5under 2avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Hornets 0, Rockets 4, even 1

HornetsBetterRockets

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

HOUBig

G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

HOUSmall

G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

Even

F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

HOUSmall

F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

HOUBig

C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84

HornetsBetterRockets

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

HOUBig

HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

Even

HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

HOUBig

Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

HOUBig

Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

HOUBig

Bench+16.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCHA betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

Rockets

Guards

A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min

Forwards

J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min

Centers

A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min

Out

S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CHA98.3 #30

HOU120.7 #3

Points per possession

CHA0.99 #30

HOU1.20 #1

Pace (possessions)

CHA98.3 #30

HOU101.6 #24

Shooting

Effective FG%

CHA48.4 #29

HOU56.6 #3

3-point %

CHA29.6 #28

HOU39.0 #3

3-point attempt rate

CHA50.8 #2

HOU38.1 #26

Free throw rate

CHA18.9 #30

HOU31.9 #8

Possessions

Turnover rate

CHA18.8 #29

HOU15.1 #13

Offensive rebound rate

CHA31.6 #4

HOU32.4 #3

Assists per game

CHA21.6 #30

HOU28.1 #5

Defense

Points allowed

CHA106.4 #4

HOU108.3 #7

Points allowed per possession

CHA1.09 #15

HOU1.06 #8

Opponent effective FG%

CHA53.1 #15

HOU52.1 #10

Opponent 3-point %

CHA37.5 #24

HOU30.2 #4

Turnovers forced

CHA14.5 #23

HOU15.7 #16

Defensive rebound rate

CHA76.6 #5

HOU73.2 #14

Steals per game

CHA7.1 #25

HOU9.7 #6

Blocks per game

CHA5.0 #15

HOU5.9 #8

CHA		HOU
Scoring
98.3 #30	Points per game	120.7 #3
0.99 #30	Points per possession	1.20 #1
98.3 #30	Pace (possessions)	101.6 #24
Shooting
48.4 #29	Effective FG%	56.6 #3
29.6 #28	3-point %	39.0 #3
50.8 #2	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #26
18.9 #30	Free throw rate	31.9 #8
Possessions
18.8 #29	Turnover rate	15.1 #13
31.6 #4	Offensive rebound rate	32.4 #3
21.6 #30	Assists per game	28.1 #5
Defense
106.4 #4	Points allowed	108.3 #7
1.09 #15	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #8
53.1 #15	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #10
37.5 #24	Opponent 3-point %	30.2 #4
14.5 #23	Turnovers forced	15.7 #16
76.6 #5	Defensive rebound rate	73.2 #14
7.1 #25	Steals per game	9.7 #6
5.0 #15	Blocks per game	5.9 #8

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Thunder119–98
L@ Mavericks111–116
W@ Bucks132–100
Wvs Hawks120–110
W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.

Hornets @ Rockets

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hornets

Rockets

Rockets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hornets

Rockets