Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:30 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · at Pacers · Conference game

LineATL -5.5moved 1 toward IND

Total231.5down 3 from 234.5

Season records: Hawks and Pacers
ATL	This season	IND
3-4	Record	2-5
3-4	ATS	3-4
4-3	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 120–113 · win probability ATL 69%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

ATL -5.5

moved 1 toward IND

Total

231.5

model 233.0 · Over by 1.5

Model edge

ATL by 1.5

model vs market

Public on the spread

81% ATL

84% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

ATL 5, IND 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ATLBig

ATL offense vs IND defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, IND 14.8%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, IND 14.9%

INDSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, IND 31.2. Allowed: ATL 32.1, IND 32.1

ATLSmall

IND offense vs ATL defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

ATLSmall

Three-pointers

ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 44.7% and 43.1% of their shots

INDSmall

Home court

IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, ATL 2-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points

INDSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9

ATLSmall

Rest

ATL 2 days since its last game, IND 1

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, IND 72.7%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

NBA games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Road favorites of 3 to 6.5	630	64%	50%	51%
Conference games at this spread	970	62%	49%	52%
Games with a total of 230 to 234.5	744	72%	52%	48%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	2-2
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: ATL away, as favorite; IND home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	@ WSH	W126–96WU
Nov 6	vs WSH	W126–96WU
Nov 7	vs BKN	W141–107WO

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	@ MEM	L106–125LU
Nov 7	vs DEN	L120–135LO
Nov 9	@ DAL	L105–121LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 17 since 2021-22

ATL 10–7 INDATL leads · 17 games since 2021-22 · ATL 9-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 31, 2025-26	ATL 124 @ IND 129	IND +1.5	IND W
Jan 26, 2025-26	IND 116 @ ATL 132	ATL -5.5	ATL W
Oct 31, 2025-26	ATL 128 @ IND 108	IND +2.5	ATL W
Mar 8, 2024-25	IND 118 @ ATL 120	ATL +1.5	ATL W
Mar 6, 2024-25	IND 118 @ ATL 124	ATL -1.5	ATL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 2, Pacers 0, even 3

HawksBetterPacers

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

Even

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

ATLBig

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

Even

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

Even

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

ATLSmall

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

HawksBetterPacers

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

ATLBig

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

ATLSmall

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

INDBig

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

ATLBig

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestATL betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ATL116.3 #13

IND112.9 #18

Points per possession

ATL1.10 #16

IND1.10 #17

Pace (possessions)

ATL105.6 #7

IND103.1 #15

Shooting

Effective FG%

ATL52.6 #19

IND53.9 #14

3-point %

ATL32.8 #22

IND34.1 #18

3-point attempt rate

ATL44.7 #11

IND43.1 #15

Free throw rate

ATL23.4 #26

IND31.2 #12

Possessions

Turnover rate

ATL13.8 #4

IND14.8 #10

Offensive rebound rate

ATL27.1 #18

IND23.1 #27

Assists per game

ATL30.7 #1

IND28.0 #7

Defense

Points allowed

ATL115.4 #19

IND116.7 #23

Points allowed per possession

ATL1.10 #17

IND1.13 #23

Opponent effective FG%

ATL54.5 #22

IND53.9 #19

Opponent 3-point %

ATL31.9 #7

IND35.9 #20

Turnovers forced

ATL18.3 #2

IND14.9 #19

Defensive rebound rate

ATL70.9 #19

IND72.7 #16

Steals per game

ATL9.4 #8

IND6.9 #27

Blocks per game

ATL3.7 #29

IND4.0 #26

ATL		IND
Scoring
116.3 #13	Points per game	112.9 #18
1.10 #16	Points per possession	1.10 #17
105.6 #7	Pace (possessions)	103.1 #15
Shooting
52.6 #19	Effective FG%	53.9 #14
32.8 #22	3-point %	34.1 #18
44.7 #11	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #15
23.4 #26	Free throw rate	31.2 #12
Possessions
13.8 #4	Turnover rate	14.8 #10
27.1 #18	Offensive rebound rate	23.1 #27
30.7 #1	Assists per game	28.0 #7
Defense
115.4 #19	Points allowed	116.7 #23
1.10 #17	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #23
54.5 #22	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #19
31.9 #7	Opponent 3-point %	35.9 #20
18.3 #2	Turnovers forced	14.9 #19
70.9 #19	Defensive rebound rate	72.7 #16
9.4 #8	Steals per game	6.9 #27
3.7 #29	Blocks per game	4.0 #26

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

2 days since their last game.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

1 day since their last game.

Hawks @ Pacers

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

How games like this went

Market vs model

Market

Public betting

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hawks

Pacers

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hawks

Pacers