Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 6, 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · at Hawks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Hawks
WSH	This season	ATL
3-3	Record	3-4
3-3	ATS	3-4
1-5	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ATL 121–112 · win probability ATL 72%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 232.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

WSH 2, ATL 5 · 2026-27 so far

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, ATL 23.4. Allowed: WSH 21.8, ATL 32.1

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ATLBig

ATL offense vs WSH defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, ATL 18.3%

ATLBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, ATL 70.9%

WSHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5

ATLSmall

WSH offense vs ATL defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points

ATLSmall

Home court

ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, WSH 1-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6

Even

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 37.6% and 44.7% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: WSH away; ATL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ OKC	L111–132WO
Nov 9	@ DET	L95–117LU
Nov 11	@ IND	W131–118WO

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs BKN	W141–107WO
Nov 9	vs LAL	L116–141LO
Nov 13	@ CHI	L123–126LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22

WSH 6–14 ATLATL leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · ATL has won the last 3 meetings · WSH 10-10 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 26, 2025-26	WSH 96 @ ATL 126	ATL -10.5	ATL W
Feb 24, 2025-26	WSH 98 @ ATL 119	ATL -12.5	ATL W
Dec 6, 2025-26	ATL 131 @ WSH 116	WSH +9.5	ATL W
Nov 25, 2025-26	ATL 113 @ WSH 132	WSH +10.5	WSH W
Feb 8, 2024-25	ATL 125 @ WSH 111	WSH +6.5	ATL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 1, Hawks 3, even 1

WizardsBetterHawks

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

ATLBig

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

ATLBig

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

WSHSmall

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

ATLBig

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

WizardsBetterHawks

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

ATLSmall

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

ATLBig

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

WSHBig

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

ATLBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

ATL116.3 #13

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

ATL1.10 #16

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

ATL105.6 #7

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

ATL52.6 #19

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

ATL32.8 #22

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

ATL44.7 #11

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

ATL23.4 #26

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

ATL13.8 #4

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

ATL27.1 #18

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

ATL30.7 #1

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

ATL115.4 #19

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

ATL1.10 #17

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

ATL54.5 #22

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

ATL31.9 #7

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

ATL18.3 #2

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

ATL70.9 #19

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

ATL9.4 #8

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

ATL3.7 #29

WSH		ATL
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	116.3 #13
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.10 #16
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	105.6 #7
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	52.6 #19
29.3 #29	3-point %	32.8 #22
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	44.7 #11
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	23.4 #26
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	13.8 #4
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #18
24.5 #24	Assists per game	30.7 #1
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	115.4 #19
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #17
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #22
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #7
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	18.3 #2
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #19
7.2 #24	Steals per game	9.4 #8
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	3.7 #29

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

6 days since their last game.

Wizards @ Hawks

What could decide it: ATL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Hawks

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Hawks