Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Feb 16, 8:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · at Hawks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Raptors and Hawks
TOR	This season	ATL
3-3	Record	3-4
3-3	ATS	3-4
3-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 115–115 · win probability TOR 51%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

TOR 2, ATL 2 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

TOR has played the 21st-hardest schedule, ATL the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

TORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOR 32.6%, ATL 27.1%. Defensive: TOR 73.4%, ATL 70.9%

ATLSmall

Three-pointers

TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%; ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 38.1% and 44.7% of their shots

ATLSmall

Home court

ATL at home. This season: ATL 1-2 at home, TOR 1-2 away

TORSmall

TOR offense vs ATL defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8; ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6

Even

ATL offense vs TOR defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOR 27.7, ATL 23.4. Allowed: TOR 41.5, ATL 32.1

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4; ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOR 13.5%, ATL 13.8%. Forced: TOR 20.8%, ATL 18.3%

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: TOR plays 105.5 a game (8th fastest), ATL 105.6 (7th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOR 100%, ATL 100%. Transfers in: TOR 0, ATL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: TOR away; ATL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 17	@ CHA	W97–96LU
Feb 26	vs ATL	W118–100WU
Feb 28	@ IND	W122–104WU

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 17	@ BKN	W141–107WO
Feb 25	@ CHI	L123–126LU
Feb 26	@ TOR	L100–118LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

TOR 12–6 ATLTOR leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · TOR has won the last 6 meetings · TOR 14-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 5, 2025-26	ATL 100 @ TOR 118	TOR -2.5	TOR W
Jan 3, 2025-26	ATL 117 @ TOR 134	TOR -5.5	TOR W
Nov 7, 2025-26	TOR 109 @ ATL 97	ATL -2.5	TOR W
Oct 22, 2025-26	TOR 138 @ ATL 118	ATL -5.5	TOR W
Jan 25, 2024-25	TOR 117 @ ATL 94	ATL -5.5	TOR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Raptors 1, Hawks 2, even 2

RaptorsBetterHawks

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

ATLSmall

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

ATLSmall

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

Even

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

Even

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

TORSmall

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

RaptorsBetterHawks

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Even

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

Even

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

TORBig

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTOR betterATL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOR118.2 #10

ATL116.3 #13

Points per possession

TOR1.11 #13

ATL1.10 #16

Pace (possessions)

TOR105.5 #8

ATL105.6 #7

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOR51.0 #22

ATL52.6 #19

3-point %

TOR32.0 #24

ATL32.8 #22

3-point attempt rate

TOR38.1 #25

ATL44.7 #11

Free throw rate

TOR27.7 #18

ATL23.4 #26

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOR13.5 #3

ATL13.8 #4

Offensive rebound rate

TOR32.6 #2

ATL27.1 #18

Assists per game

TOR29.2 #2

ATL30.7 #1

Defense

Points allowed

TOR110.3 #13

ATL115.4 #19

Points allowed per possession

TOR1.05 #5

ATL1.10 #17

Opponent effective FG%

TOR53.4 #16

ATL54.5 #22

Opponent 3-point %

TOR36.7 #21

ATL31.9 #7

Turnovers forced

TOR20.8 #1

ATL18.3 #2

Defensive rebound rate

TOR73.4 #13

ATL70.9 #19

Steals per game

TOR12.7 #2

ATL9.4 #8

Blocks per game

TOR4.3 #19

ATL3.7 #29

TOR		ATL
Scoring
118.2 #10	Points per game	116.3 #13
1.11 #13	Points per possession	1.10 #16
105.5 #8	Pace (possessions)	105.6 #7
Shooting
51.0 #22	Effective FG%	52.6 #19
32.0 #24	3-point %	32.8 #22
38.1 #25	3-point attempt rate	44.7 #11
27.7 #18	Free throw rate	23.4 #26
Possessions
13.5 #3	Turnover rate	13.8 #4
32.6 #2	Offensive rebound rate	27.1 #18
29.2 #2	Assists per game	30.7 #1
Defense
110.3 #13	Points allowed	115.4 #19
1.05 #5	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #17
53.4 #16	Opponent effective FG%	54.5 #22
36.7 #21	Opponent 3-point %	31.9 #7
20.8 #1	Turnovers forced	18.3 #2
73.4 #13	Defensive rebound rate	70.9 #19
12.7 #2	Steals per game	9.4 #8
4.3 #19	Blocks per game	3.7 #29

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Raptors @ Hawks

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Raptors

Hawks

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Raptors

Hawks